KTtom
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Personally I wouldn't be too upset with something like what the gfs shows with a deep low moving up from the south west into the cold. At least some will see some disruptive snowfall. Prefer that scenario, to days on end of cold, dry weather followed by a powder puff warm up. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Same here, coldest Max for next 10 days being 8 c! Anyone expecting 'ice days' from this cold spell possibility in March will be disappointed away from maybe Scotland. Love it when Icon gets rolled out though -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Youll like the 00z even more! Could be quite a battle ground somewhere should this scenario come off! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
To be fair that was a great spot this morning and 06z continues to back it up with a sinker. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
60:40 in favour of a decent cold spell, a flip from yesterday in favour, howerver, we are still looking at the end of week 1 March... -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think Gowon is reffering to dry generally, which the gfs certainly is, pretty much throughout the run. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS ensembles seem to be splitting into 2 groups for March...currently around 30 % favouuring the colder option. Interesting that the operational keeps following this route though. -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
KTtom replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yea, nothing unusual in having wild blocking scenarios showing in the far reaches of gfs as we head into March when the PV starts to weaken even without the effects of a SSW. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Must admit I find your posts a refreshing change from the over egged hype from most in here. I totally agree with your post, yes an exceptional 384 chart from gfs, and this is what we will need in March to deliver anything half decent for the southern half of the UK. At the moment..that 384 chart is the only chart out there which is decent. People looking at building blocks but the winter is ticking away quickly. 2013 may have delivered in March, but that was 10 years ago and the climate has changed alot in 10 years...as has been said previously by some, 2018 was a one off. From next weeks drop off, the gfs mean is on a constant up hill track until the end where the op goes on its own way. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Pretty well summed up there 'the clock is ticking' good illustrations from ECM how good synoptics dont deliver as we enter March, were looking for exceptional . -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Some 'interesting' charts appearing at the latter end of GFS, particularly as we head into March. But, is this really abnormal for the time of year?. Something in my head seems to suggest we often get stunning winter synoptics in spring, hence the reason the phrase 'if only it were January' gets rolled out frequently as the season changes? -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Met going for Average to Mild all the way through to 2nd March. I guess sub minus 5 uppers, will still generate ground temps of 7-9 c in the late February sunshine. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I note thats the end of the commentry. It really does seem to be on its own the last couple of runs, but who knows it might be right, after all its the gfs which has been lambasted all winter for being useless. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Pretty much took my words away. High pressure pretty much all the way (initially cloudy) then a glancing polor blow around the 23rd, then looking like a sunnier high takes over. Far reaches of the gfs now into March, nothing to get excited about yet. Lack of rain will shortly be an unwelcome topic. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If you love high pressure and hate wind and rain, you're going to love the 00z gfs ! -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
KTtom replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Cracking day today, wall to wall sunshine, same tomorrow...I can already feel my energy levels and general mojo rising. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Was going to post something similar yesterday then thought twice However, you hit the nail on the head, whether its the upgrades or just how dismal the prospects have been this winter but routinely gfs used to throw up mouth watering charts in the outer reaches of fi on a constant basis, sadly lacking this year until now...18z looked likely to develop into smething interesting 00Z couldnt be less interesting if it tried... T 384 very similar to T 0. Agree with posters last night, very unlikely to see anything intersting until turn of the month. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just a hint this morning that by next weekend we will be heading into a more mobile phase with Atlantic lows heading in for the first time in weeks... -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Unfortunately these graphs can be slightly misleading.. whilst there is no doubt the trend is down and looks good ...just look at where we are starting from. If T0= average then they wouldnt look so good ? -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
KTtom replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Lovely here, clear blue skies, little wind and warmth off the sun... Back to grey cloud tomorrow as I've booked the day off! -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
KTtom replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Was thinking just yesterday, its been a very dry winter bar the 3 week mid season deluge. And yes, I agree, whilst I hate storms and constant rain, we do need a pattern change which the SSW should provide even if its not a colder one. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Certainly no concerns with regard to stormy weather for some considerable time if UKMO 168 verifies...as Cambrian pointed out above, the block seems to be on an interesting direction of travel.. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
KTtom replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
KTtom replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Looking like the SSW straw will be the last one to cling onto if we are to see any further cold weather this Winter. Operationals showing euro high for the duration of their outputs , so southwesterlies for the UK...wet in the north west. -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
KTtom replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion