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andy_leics22

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Everything posted by andy_leics22

  1. That would give us 6-7cm here! As much as we had last weekend highly doubtful, but we can hope
  2. Well, it has reached here and it's just pure rain. Expected that at this stage, though. Interestingly, a few forecasts are saying that it will start to turn more to snow at around 10am. I hope so! Then it becomes a question of how long we can get the band to stick around for. I'm not expecting any accumulations, but seeing an hour or 2 of snow falling at some point today would be a bonus!
  3. There is a possibility! It will be close though. I would think that if it does make it that far North, it will be light in nature, but still, light snow is better than no snow
  4. It kinda is and it kinda isn't I tend to judge anything between t72 and t180 as medium range. If a trend starts to develop within a t180 timeframe, I will take it more seriously than if it was after that. Now it's a case of seeing how that develops over the next 3 days. If we still have an Easterly on the cards for the end of next week, by Monday, then the chances of it happening are pretty likely The good thing is, the ECM and UKMO are on board with it, at the moment. If it was just the GFS going for it, without the support of those 2, I would probably dismiss it.
  5. Yep a few models are still showing snow, but the big boys aren't! Elevation will come into play though. I do think some areas of Birmingham will see snow, purely because of the extra height. I very much doubt it for anywhere below 100m, though.
  6. I've given up on tomorrow, now. I still think areas above 200m will see some snow, though. My location is 70m ASL, so that has kinda killed it for such a marginal event I'm more interested in the medium- long term charts now. Next Thursday onwards is when a possible Easterly could establish itself -10 uppers across the board! Give me that over marginality.
  7. Here we go again! rollercoaster time. I just hope that the 06z looks good for me to wake up to, tomorrow.
  8. That milder sector is further North on the GFS. Could be curtains for snow away from high ground. Dew points look on the wrong side of marginal.
  9. That's my concern, also. It's a balmy 10c out there at the moment! The 850 line of colder air is on a knife edge. I think if the PPN is there as the morning wears on, the colder air should dig in and bring snow with it. I definitely think elevation will be important. Anywhere above 200m will have a greater chance of seeing snow. It may be a sleety mix at low levels, but we shall see. Hoping for another 5cm or so
  10. Bit of a 'battle of the models' happening tonight, in regards to Saturday's possible event. HIRLAM only just scrapes Birmingham on its Northern edge. HARMONIE stretches up to Stoke but is very light anywhere North of Birmingham. The ARPEGE is probably best viewing for all of us in the Midlands. Moderate PPN reaching as far North as Stoke and Derbyshire. ICON goes for the band reaching Birmingham on its Northern edge and the PPN is patchy in nature. The GFS looks decent for more widespread snow at the moment too, but the intensity of the PPN doesn't look too heavy. It's going to be another close run thing!
  11. It looks as though the sweet spot could again be somewhere in the Midlands. My guess would be somewhere around Birmingham. Maybe Worcestershire I think elevation will be key as well. Anywhere above 200m and you'll be laughing. I'm at 70m asl, so it could be too marginal here, but we'll see. After the last snow event, i'm just happy that I finally got to see some decent snowfall again! I hadn't seen decent snow since March 2018, before my 18 month stint in Spain/Gibraltar.
  12. Well well well. What do we have here then? Round 2?
  13. Looks magical, Fizzychops I think we're at the end of the road now for this event. It's been a good one here! Not the same level as the accumulations that some people are reporting, but I'd say we have a good 6-7cm. I would have snapped your hand off for that, a few days ago!
  14. Snowing moderately here again, with decent size flakes! For the first time today though, the radar is reflecting what it actually falling Hoping for another hour of this, before the band slips away Southwards.
  15. Got to be honest, I didn't expect the band of snow to still be this potent by now! I know it will slowly start to fizzle out as the evening wears on (hopefully not though) but it still packs a punch at the moment! It's slowly moving West as it slips South. What a day this has been.
  16. Stopped for 10 mins but it's snowing moderately again here! Again, the radar is showing us in a dry patch, around 10-15 miles away from the nearest PPN. One of the modt bizarre snow events that i've ever had the pleasure of witnessing. I've seen ANAPROP on the radar before in the past, but never as consistently as we've had today. The only thing it can be, is that the wind is blowing the powdery snow around 10-15 West of where it's leaving the cloud base! Is it even possible to be blown that far, though? A couple of miles, I can understand, but 10-15?!
  17. As the band slowly moves back Southwards, we may actually see more snow fall than we had earlier! This is a lot more slow moving as it heads South. Yes, it will fizzle out as the night wears on, but 3-4 hours of light-moderate snow will certainly add another 5cm or so, to some areas.
  18. What on earth! No PPN within 15 miles of us on the radar, again, but it's started snowing moderately, covering gaps where people had walked on it earlier I hope we can get another 2-3 hours of this!
  19. Had a great walk on the country park with my family The highlight was climbing on some massive snow boulders with my Uncle
  20. This is crazy. I have never seen moderate-heavy snowfall like this with a dry spell over my location on the radar. It has been that way for the past hour we're heading towards around 6-7cm now, with no sign of a let up! Going to take the Dog for a walk across the country park soon, I will upload some pictures when I get back
  21. You're heading towards 'dumping' territory there!
  22. Definite pivot and stall just North of Birmingham, now. Where are the Telford crew from earlier? Should be getting a covering there!
  23. This is crazy nothing over us on the radar but the flakes are getting bigger! This is like pre-internet era, before we had radars to follow. It's now down to nowcasting and looking out the window!
  24. The radar is definitely not to be trusted, today! The snow slowed down here for around 10 mins but has picked up again, despite the PPN apparently moving away and leaving us under very light stuff
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