andy_leics22

GFS Ensembles. Basically, over 5 days away, they haven't got a clue what will happen massive disagreement from all the GFS member runs.

Stopped here now, but it was nice to see! Absolutely bugger all behind it on the radar, though Dry as a bone.

I'll be very surprised if it doesn't turn to snow in Leicester, when that blob to thr East of you arrives in a few mins!

It hasn't turned in 'Inckleh?! You're only about 25 miles North West of me Surprised at that. I'm also surprised that Leicester hasn't got snow but we have. The cold air is supposed to be moving down from the North East, yet we're 30 miles or so South of Leicester.

Apologies for the rubbish video quality. My phone's camera isn't the best It's a shame this only started at the back edge of that band we have a dusting now but it'll be over on about 10 mins. Still, good to see and it bodes well for anyone West of here! 20210206_225528.mp4

It'll turn in a minute. It was rain here for ages and then it turned to snow when the heavier burst got here. It's gonna blow up in this thread soon when that band reaches the Birmingham and West Mids area the extra elevation around there will help, as well.

This is crazy. Despite having 4 hours of rain before this turned to snow, it's already settling on cars and the shed roof!

Now then, this could get interesting for people West of Northampton, Leicester and Nottingham! Birmingham areas... If the band keeps up its current intensity, I would expect you to get a covering from this 2-5cm, definitely. Coventry as well, you guys should get something from this band. Shez, where are ya?!

Erm, not sure how, but... We have snow falling here won't amount to anything, though. Ground is soaked from 4 hours of rain.

Sorry Just being a realist! Haha. Bit annoyed at how bad the timing of this has been. If the and had been 3-4 hours behind, all of this rain we have had in Northampton, would have mostly been snow By the time the colder air is here, the band will have cleared away. Oh well, that's the reality of the Weather. Never predictable and never going to please everybody!

It'll be rain, with perhaps a bit of sleet mixed in.

Thanks for that! No snow for me for this cold spell, then

I reckon you could see a covering from this! Colder 850's already in the Stoke area now. Bodes well for the next few hours.

Cold, hard rain here This PPN has arrived 4 hours too early. Go away!! *Gets hairdryer out in an attempt to blow it back East*

Not too optimistic about my chances of snow from this band tonight. It seems to only turn cold enough here by 11pm onwards. The band of PPN will probably have passed us by then Shame the colder air couldn't arrive 3 hours earlier ?

1-2cm? That's not good enough

Loughborough is in a decent position (In my opinion). Let's see how much snow you have by Wednesday Certainly in a better position than me right now. Wanna swap for the next 7 days? Instead of 'Wife swap' maybe we should start a 'snow swap' on this thread? swap locations for a week!

Oh yeah, totally. Sorry, I should have been a bit clearer when I said that Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and Leicestershire had a better chance of snow, I meant during an Easterly, not in general The West Mids have done a lot better so far, this Winter. Just seen this on the GFS. It's in F.I, but... Battleground dumping, anyone?

It's all relative though dude. If you live in Notts, Derbyshire, or Leicestershire, you have a better chance of seeing some snow, than say, Warwickshire, Birmingham, Worcester, Wolverhampton etc... The fact is, some parts of Nottinghamshire could see 10cm+ by the time this is all said and done, and Birmingham may have 2cm. I'd certainly be hyping it up if I lived in a favoured spot from this

I've lost count of the amount of times the GFS has started to show more and more PPN coming in from an Easterly, the closer we get to the event. It usuallt shows very light PPN at about 3-4 days away and as we get within t36, it increasingly shows more and more. It's just GFS doing GFS things

Unfortunately, Worcestershire is not in a good location for an Easterly The best scenario is if a channel low can come along and throw up a band of PPN with it. Snow showers won't usually amount to that much, that far West. That isn't to say that you can't get lucky from a streamer, though. The Midlands is a wide area. It can stretch from Nottinghamshire all the way down to Worcestershire. Some parts of the Midlands will do well from this. Those as far East in the Midlands as possible will have the best chance.

I can guarantee that there will be more PPN and showers around from Monday-Wednesday than the models currently suggest. The radar will reflect that, no question.

I'm hoping it's bloody wrong!! We're in the corridor of nothingness here I said it earlier but I'll say it again, because I think it's important for people in Leicestershire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Stoke (Yes, I included Stoke ) and Lincolnshire to know... The models are absolutely useless at picking up on showers from an Easterly. I would not be surprised if the areas mentioned, ended up with 5-15cm, Possibly even 20cm+ in places that are under a constant streamer. Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire are my favoured locations for a set up like this. Wasn't it 2009 when those areas were buried under 25cm+ of snow from an Easterly? Or maybe it was 2010. All I can remember is that Leicester had around 7-10cm of snow while 40 miles North, were buried with about a foot of the stuff So frustrating at the time. So, in summary, do not write this off yet. There's no way it will be as dry as the models are suggesting currently, for Sunday-Wednesday.

The 'Leicester snow shield' at full power there!

Agreed. GFS absolutely LOVES bringing in raging zonality as soon as it can. I would trust the ECM or UKMO for a medium term outlook over the GFS. Having said that, the GFS did pick this Easterly up at around t180! So it isn't bad at picking up trends.