andy_leics22

Dude, did you not see how much the models flip flopped within t120 in the run up to this cold spell? at one point the UKMO model was adamant that this Easterly wouldn't happen and then it changed it's mind the next day. I'm telling ya now, it takes someone with a big pair of knackers to confidently forecast what will happen by the weekend.

Hmmm, that PPN around the Lincolnshire coast is so slow moving, it's frustrating. I've seen Lada's move faster than that. Takes a big pair of grapefruits to issue that with confidence, I don't rate the UKMO model that highly anyway, wouldn't surprise me if the GFS was right between now and t120 and the UKMO ends up backtracking.

Agreed, it must be that front that is on the FAX charts, it's weak but it seems to stick around the same sort of area for over 24 hours, it's a strange one. Here it is for this morning... and it's still there by midday tomorrow... :lol:

The problem we have at the moment is that the air flow is a very slack one. By tomorrow and Wednesday the Easterly is forecast to have a stronger flow and it will blow showers well inland at a faster rate than we are seeing today. Seems to be taking an age for that band of precip off the Lincolnshire coast to move at the moment :lol: I wouldn't worry though, I expect to see some precip at least 50 miles inland by 4pm, lets see if I end up with egg on my face or not :winky:

Hows it going down in Western mate? I agree with you, see the models rarely predict convective showers in Easterlys that well. They tend to upgrade the ppn activity about 12-24 hours before the event, not that i'm complaining about that! I also think they under estimate shower activity in Easterlys as well. I normally see loads more ppn moving in off the East coast in these set ups than the models forecast! I'll go sledding down a big hill with you if we get a covering this week in Leicester :lol: They are currently selling sleds down Asda so I might have to buy one tomorrow!

I will do fizzy chops This is what i'm keeping my eye on, on the radar there is some PPN building around The Wash and it's that area of PPN that I expect to make it's way inland during the afternoon and evening. How far it makes it before dying out.. I'm unsure, just a case of radar watching really. Got the ol crayons out and circled it :w00t:

It's not dude, it's light-moderate precip.

Fellow snow starved Midlanders... I think we may be in with a chance of seeing a bit of snow this evening/overnight. UKMO currently has a feature moving in from the East bringing some snow showers with it. Admittedly it doesn't look like much but it could give a few cm's to the East Midlands and a dusting to parts of the West Midlands like Staffs, Birmingham, Warwickshire etc. It will be hit and miss though because it'll be in the form of showers and not an organised band.

You like walking your dog don't you Gordster Most of your updates include what the Weather was like when you walked the dog I used to have a Black Lab, sadly passed away in 2010 but I used to love taking him for walks across the fields in the snow!

Honestly, in these sort of scenarios... You want the Easterly 100% in place first and then the PPN and low pressure systems will fall into place after. Now we definitely have the Easterly in place... What we need to look for this week is how the Easterly develops and what sort of troughs and low pressures make their way to the UK. It does look like an Easterly that won't be short lived and this cold spell might last weeks. I live slap bang in the middle of England but even i'm fairly optimistic about this cold spell. It may take until Wednesday at the earliest but if the high pressure stays above the UK then those low's over Eastern Europe will eventually get here, guarantee you.

I wouldn't worry about that, the models never normally forecast convective showers well in these types of set ups. I would put good money on East London seeing at least a dusting by Wednesday.

It looks to be another case of 'near miss' for Leicester again today :lol: I reckon that PPN will probably scrape Birmingham on it's Eastern edge but Leicester will be too far East. It's definitely colder today than I thought it would be, GFS has a max temp of 4-5c here for around midday and I know it's only 10:30am but it's 1.0c at the moment. Can't see it getting above 3c today.

Oh don't get me wrong Jim, they serve a purpose and i'm not criticizing you for posting it. I just think at the moment with the huge uncertainty in the models from run to run... I can't even believe anything forecast for next Wednesday at the moment :lol:

My advice would be.. Take absolutely no notice of a forecast for the 11th-25th of February, F.I in the models is February the 2nd at the moment. So trying to forecast something as far away as February the 11th is a suicidal move from the Met Office IMO.

The temperature is higher than I expected today :huh: 8.0c at the moment with a dew of 2.2c, NEVER going to snow in those conditions, I think we'll have to wait until Sunday now at least to see a bit of snow.

The only gripe I have now that the cold snap seems to be more or less in place.. Is that it's going to be a dry Easterly, that's still good but i'm just hoping it eventually leads to -10 or below uppers and frequent and heavy snow showers filtering inland.

Just got caught in a hail/snow grains shower I was surprised that there was Wintryness in the shower because I just checked the latest observations for my location and the temp is 5.1c with a dew of 1.0c, I guess the dew was just about low enough for something Wintry.

Lol, had a feeling that forecasted snow wouldn't actually happen. The uppers looked too warm even for frontal edge snow.

Hmmmm that's interesting AJ, i've been too bothered by what might happen in 7-14 days time and i've completely overlooked tomorrow :lol: The Met O warning includes Leicester so it would be nice to see a few flakes.

I don't agree with that at all, I said yesterday that the trends point towards an eventual Easterly and a prolonged cold spell and I still stick to that after seeing the models this morning,

I don't want to jump the gun here but going on current model runs today and the general feeling I have at the moment about where the Weather for the UK is heading over the coming weeks... All I can say is.. I can smell a beast from the East brewing.

Brilliant

I'm astonished at how much of a scatter there is on the Ensembles at only 5 days away, the models really aren't handling this well and haven't done for the past week. This could go either way, I think this time next Thursday we could be looking at a prolonged and exciting cold spell or a disappointing Atlantic victory.