andy_leics22

It's funny you say "Forget the GFS at short term and look at meto/bbc forecasts. Don't you remember that event from 2-3 years ago that I keep bringing up? The BBC/MET O went for heavy snow over Wales, the whole of the Midlands, Yorkshire, whole of East Anglia etc... 12 hours before the event happened. The end result was...Started and stayed as heavy rain for Wales, all of the Midlands, all of Yorkshire apart from the Pennines and all of East Anglia. The GFS predicted that it would be rain and not snow like the BBC/MET O were banging on about, So i'll never trust a BBC forecast in a marginal situation again.

As Del boy would say.. Ou contrare Conor, ou contrare. Slight shift of the snow line further West if you ask me.

GFS 12z will be a HUGE run today, this run could be the difference between 5-15cm of snow for Birmingham, Staffordshire, Shropshire etc.. Or a brief few cm followed by rain. 50 miles shift n the warm sector would make or break it.

Something interesting on the UKMO precip charts... When the PPN hits the Midlands at around 6-7pm the 528 dam line is way East (which has been forecast for days and won't affect the snow chances) but then it sort of cuts back across by 1am JUST about making it to Leicester/Nottingham/Derby whilst the PPN seems to still be with us. That could make a huge difference for some if that comes off. Ideally we'd like that 528 dam line to cut back across another 50 miles South Westward and it may well do. If I could compare this event to a Football match.. It's like England being 2-1 down in a World cup final to Germany with 5 minutes to go, Rooney hits a 25 yard curler... Everything seems to go in slow motion as it heads towards the goal... If there is a slight shift Westwards again in the next 24 hours, the ball will have clipped the inside of the post and gone in to make it 2-2 and go into Extra time with it all to play for. If it doesn't shift Westwards and it stays the same or shifts a bit further East.. The ball will have clipped the edge of the post and gone wide :lol:

Starts trickling out around 3:40pm

Can't really see a shift happening now with 24 hours to go before the event starts, it could happen but the chances are about 15% for a shift Westwards enough that it gives us an all snow event rather than snow to rain.

It snowed in Birmingham in Nov 2008 I think? May have been 2007, can't remember now! When the 850's were between -1 and -2, it was rain and sleet in Leicester. The extra bit of height and a degree cooler in Birmingham meant they had snow, so it certainly is possible for it to snow with -1 to -2 850's if the ground temps and dew points are low enough.

NAE says.. *Rasta accent* "Don't worry yourselfs mon"

LOL he has indeed, I know his son, Rickie. Well... As it stands we have about 95% chance of seeing some decent snowfall tomorrow, if it goes t*ts up now with only just over 24 hours left till the event.. I'll probably top myself :lol:

No way?! Haha, one of my best mates when I was a kid used to live on Colbert Drive, I went to the wino arms before Christmas for a meal, that's literally round the corner from me lol. I bet you know Terry don't you? Always drives down in that big range rover

You are from Narborough Road South?! Iive just off Turnbull Drive, haha.

Take a ride up to Leicester on your bike mate!

The high res HIRLAM model fancies it to clip the whole of Kent!

Did u get a dusting overnight Cyclonic?

It is possible, we'll see how it pans out tomorrow, all I can suggest is... Keep checking the radar, current temps etc.. There is a high chance of Stoke getting a few inches from it.

It's because it was very dry, powdery snow. Not the usual wet rubbish we are used to!

What the heeeeeckkkk!! Just walked home from my Girlfriends house (she has to get up at 6am for work) and couldn't believe it when I stepped out her front door and saw 1cm of snow everywhere Just checked the radar now.. Where the heck did that streamer come from at 1am? It wasn't forecast :blink: I'm not complaining though, everywhere looks beautiful this morning here, all the snow has settled because of how cold it is, the roads are a nightmare and the snow is that powdery that when a car drives over it.. It blows it about like sugar

Torrential snow?! Daaaaayum!

Ah, I see echobase is online *smacks on back* where ya been?!

Leicester* area :winky: Preferably in LE3!

I always thought you were in Durham but I see you moved to Notts Welcome to the Midlands my friend, lets hope you brought the snow with you from what you are used to getting in Durham :winky:

That's an upgrade for those further West No doubt about it.

LMAO! Yamkins days are numbered!

It's Arnie! I think you may be in trouble for asking him to do that..

Here here Sherzers, can't see a max temp of 5c on Sunday for the South East either, 2-3c looks more realistic to me.