andy_leics22

I reckon we could see a good 3-6 hours of snow from this, probably light-moderate with some heavier bursts mixed in. I'd say 5cm looks likely if the precip doesn't act stupid and split over Leicester like it has a habit of doing :lol:

Depends where you are Bish, IMO Staffs, Birmingham Westwards, Shropshire, Worcestershire... It will start as rain/sleet/freezing rain and then turn to snow after a few hours, places like Leicester, Coventry, Rutland and Warwickshire as a whole... I'd expoect it to start as snow and stay as snow but don't hold me to that, it's just my hunch from looking at the models this morning. Lets see if I end up with eggy face or not :lol:

Is it just me or is the precip further South than it should be at this time?! It's knocking on the door of Nottingham and I didn't expect it to reach Nottingham until about 3pm :huh:

I personally think it won't have turned to snow in Staffs by 9pm, probably still rain/sleet before the colder air digs in. Could be freezing rain though which would be warranting the twitchy bum!

I'm still really not sure about this personally. I'm going to stick my neck out and say that the precip will start as rain/sleet anywhere West of Birmingham and I fully expect it to be rain in places like Bristol for a good few hours before it turns to snow. The GFS still hasn't backed down about this.

Awesome pics of the bike Cyclonic! Should have used to snow we have left in Leicester as the backdrop though :winky: That bike reminds me of the red one you used to get on Road Rash on the Mega Drive for some reason :lol: *comes up beside you on another bike and smacks you off with chain*

WWF/WWE main event this is! A Royal Rumble between the models! See on the GFS, it's squeaky bum time even for me and i'm not in the West Midlands I'd like to see what data the Met Office are currently looking at.

I agree, the other models have the bulk of the PPN further East. This is the current state of play with the NMM... (England is at the top of the picture, only faintly outlined for some strange reason lol)

It's a very close run thing, IMO the West Midlands may be fractionally on the wrong side of borderline, could be freezing rain/sleet to start off with and then turn to snow. I would expect it to be all snow in the East Midlands rather than rain/sleet to snow but none of the models can agree on this even at such a close timeframe.

Dew points look good for ALL of the Midlands on the 12z run

The park near me still has around 5cm of snow on it! If we get another 5cm+ from Thursday night we could push the 10cm mark on there :lol: I don't think Leicester has seen over 10cm of lying snow for a long long time, must be 10 years at least.

That is a very surprising estimate in my opinion, I expect the higher risk of snow to be on the Eastern side of the Midlands not the Western side like the Met Office think. They have more data to look at than we do though so maybe they are seeing something that we haven't got access to yet? Maybe the 12z runs will back up their opinions for the West Midlands to have the highest risk. It's all exciting and uncertain though!

Well it never hurts to get a 2nd opinion :winky: but yes, I agree... When it comes to within 24 hours of the event it's all about checking the radar, current temps etc...

Lewis... Give me your opinions on Leicesters chance of snow for tomorrow night please Personally from the models i've looked over.. I think it's very borderline but we MAY just be by about 20 miles on the right side of marginal, any little shift in the front though could swing it either way.

Is it? I just checked the Met Office Weather warning though and it says this... An area of snow is expected to develop over east and northeast England later on Thursday, and then during Friday this will extend steadily southwestwards into central and some southwestern parts of England, as well as the east of Wales. Whilst there is uncertainty regarding where the heaviest and most persistent snow will fall, accumulations of up to about 10cm are possible in the worst affected regions. The public should be aware that, as a result, there could be some disruption to travel.

No I don't think it's that system out West. This band of Precip is going to move down from the North/North East and head South/South West. Lol, you should drive down to Braunstone park area, the park still has a good 5cm everywhere and the lake has frozen over, i'll take a pic later when I go past it.

The GFS has already started a trend Westwards, the 00z had the snow line on it's most Western edge up to Leicester/Nottingham but the 06z placed it as far West as Birmingham/Worcestershire... I'm hoping it does trend Westward for 2 reasons.. It would make it less borderline for myself and I think the West Midlands have done pretty poorly this Winter, the East Midlands have too but we still have quite a bit of snow left around here at only 75m ASL and I don't think anywhere West of Birmingham on low ground really has any left? So we did do better than you guys from the last event. I'd like to see the whole of the Midlands join in the fun with this, it could still happen, if the GFS 12z trends Westwards even more then it's good news.

It doesn't really appear to go that far, there does look like a chance of light snow extending into North East France on Friday/Saturday but nothing more than that.

Yes it looks to be Thursday night into Friday at the moment, the timing could change though! I really do hope it does snow here on Thursday night, my Girlfriend works at a school in Loughborough and she has a 20 mile round trip every day, she said she'd absolutely love a day off work because of the snow. So I want the snow for 2 reasons, for the fact I love snow anyway and for the fact it would make her happy to get the day off!

:rofl: Still can't believe your in laws live on my road, small world ain't the word! I don't know when you last came here but there is still quite a lot of snow left on the green at the top of the road, also still mounds of snow left on the pavement where people had swept Saturday nights snowfall into a pile!

Not quite sure how accurate the GEM model is but it has snow as far West as Wales!

Ok, this is a very uncertain event coming up and an extremely exciting one!! This has snuck in under the radar (pardon the pun) so to speak, we all focused on the snow event on Saturday and have been focused on the models to see what the 2nd half of February may bring.. Yet we could have another snow event in about 48 hours time!! The GFS at the moment is only going for snow in the East Midlands, i'm right on the edge here in Leicester.. All I know is.. Wherever it falls as snow... It will last over 24 hours according to the current model output!! The UKMO looks more favourable for the West Midlands to join the fun.. It does look very borderline for the whole of the Midlands, because the surface is so cold though.. Even 850's of -2 would be low enough!

It's awesome ain't it Even though the thaw has set in on the roads and pavements.. There's still about 5cm left on the grass in my back garden, hoping that can hang on today because it could stay there until the Weekend at least.

Man oh man, what an event that was! Just got home after staying at my Girlfriends over the Weekend and i'd say around 9-10cm fell in total on Saturday and there has been a slight thaw since but only on the roads, the pavements and grass is still covered and hasn't really thawed at all there. Hopefully the snow can last for today with 4c forecast and then tomorrow onwards it looks like being very cold again with 1-2c daytime max's and -6 or so night time minima's. so it shouldn't have a danger of melting for the next 5 days or so, fingers crossed! Couldn't believe how long it snowed for though, it started here at roughly 3pm and finished around 10:40pm, I cannot remember the last time I saw over 7 hours of snowfall continuous! I made a snowman though, naturally :winky: and I took some pictures of the snow on my flashy new phone that I got on Saturday, great timing that was, it's got an 8 mega pixel camera

Just on my phone at my girlfriends gaff haha. been snowing since 3pm!!! Around 10cm now, lncredible event and its still snowing heavy