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Paul Sherman

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Everything posted by Paul Sherman

  1. Paul Sherman
    1830z radar has initiation over London now, probably that cell Nick F Posted a little earlier
  2. Paul Sherman
    As above, first Clouds of the day just starting to become visible. Banks of Accas streaming up from the South
  3. Paul Sherman
    That is a great picture of an Elevated Storm (As i know there were a lot of questions earlier about the difference between Elevated and Surface Based Storms)
  4. Paul Sherman
    Latest radar confirms there is an MCS In the Making now, The Caen Storm which I believe was Supercellullar a short while ago is now getting ingested by numerous other smaller storms and a Mesoscale Convective System is starting to take shape, Its where this bugger goes that is the question now, other storms are erupting from Elevated Accas closer to the Shores of the Uk now as well. Getting more interesting as we go through the day now
  5. Paul Sherman
    Would agree that we have had Capping Issues today so far, Just look at the way that Caen Storm went up, explosive developments over there.
  6. Paul Sherman
    Can you post a screen grab Robin, my Pluter wont let me see anything on that link. Ideally would need a view from the South of Caen to get the Structure of it
  7. Paul Sherman
    I would put a substantial amount of money on that Cell near Caen being a Right Moving Supercell. Looks like it on Radar! Lucky Beggars, bet the structure on that thing is absolutely breath-taking
  8. Paul Sherman
    No Worries As I posted earlier the CZ Is roughly a little bit further North than where I sited it earlier, the far North Western Part is actually into Wales atm for example. I am liking the area near Gloucester and the Cotswolds and more especially near Fairford, Converging winds from 3 angles here currently and with some Orographic Ascent as well as a Visible agitated nature on the Satelite Picture have a hunch that something could fire in a line from the Northern Part of the Cotswolds across towards the Chilterns just South of Oxford. As in chasing in the States you would want to be North of Initiation with this wind vector to get an angle on which cell to Attack so Warwickshire looks perfectly placed, being South of a Built Up City and with good road option.
  9. Paul Sherman
    Lol Think I better stick with Merica, me Geography of the Uk is pretty pants by the sounds of things. Good luck anyway guys
  10. Paul Sherman
    Yh but If I was expecting Initiation over the Chilterns or Cotswolds surely the Eastern Part of Warwickshire is pretty damn well placed for North and North East moving Storms ?
  11. Paul Sherman
    Eh When did they move Warwickshire then ?? Thought Warwickshire was South of Brum and North of Oxford. Would obviously want to be in the eastern part south of Coventry probably though to be Upwind of any initiation
  12. Paul Sherman
    Dare I say it If I was chasing today and did not have the Kids on School Holidays would be pretty much picking a Chase Target of "Warwickshire" Sorry Gordon but it looks primed for todays risk
  13. Paul Sherman
    Finally getting clues on where the Convergence Zone is for today and where the expected Storms should fire, looks to be setting up from Western Parts of Suffolk and Cambs border across to Worcestershire and SE Wales area. Would say anywhere North and North East of These areas have a pretty decent chance of a Surface Based Storm this afternoon, ascent could come from additional trigger over the Chilterns or Cotswolds for example. Midlands looks perfectly placed
  14. Paul Sherman
    81/64f here on the Temp/Dewpoint front. Not expecting much from today as the Convergence Zone looks much further North West from here.
  15. Paul Sherman
    Yep Harry Might have to be a small trip up into Angular tonight if I want to see some Pyrotechnics, at least its only 45 minutes to an hour away up the A12
  16. Paul Sherman
    Hmmm Interesting You not seeing much at all for parts of extreme SE England Nick, this looks to be backed up by Torro as well ? Things a changing as we speak by the looks of things.
  17. Paul Sherman
    As a rule of thumb and 99% of the time Surface Based Thunderstorms will be much much more severe than Elevated Storms, the one thing (Certainly in the US PLains) the Elevated Storms have is usually Large to Very Large Hail and Frequent Clear as Day CG Lightning, Surface Based Storms can become HP In Nature shielding the Lightning in the Cores Precip. If i was going for Lightning would personally prefer Elevated Storms, If its Tornadoes or 70mph plus thunderstorm wind gusts then Surface Based Storms will be your best bet.
  18. Paul Sherman
    Would also add, if the Surface Based Storms take a more Northerly Heading this will bring the Western Side of Northern Britian into play as well, the convergence could even stretch into Wales as it stands at the moment, all will be revealed by the morning no doubt and the giveaways will be the local obs.
  19. Paul Sherman
    For Phase 2 (Surface Based) Would go for Just West of London and draw a line right up to Oxford to Cheshire (Here will be a zone of 33c Temps and 19c Dewpoints) aided by Convergence should kick off some Nasty Surface Based Storms, these should move North East towards the East Midlands, Lincs etc. For Phase 3 (MCS) Would go for Dorset and Devon and draw a line up through Birmingham/ W Mids onto the NE Of England, anywhere South and East of this line for the main MCS, Obviously this is a rough guess based on latest charts etc and could be out by as much as 50 miles each way so a bit of wriggle room.
  20. Paul Sherman
    What he said ^^^^^^
  21. Paul Sherman
    Yep Aj Some of the Forecast Sounding for tomorrow are going to be Very Interesting, could have 94/66f Spreads tomorrow (Not seen for many a year in the Uk) High Cape / Low Shear Days are great fun for Hail and Tonnes of Lightning but also Flash Flooding will be a major concern as well.
  22. Paul Sherman
    I would rather be in Warwickshire than Essex thats for sure, 2 bites of the cherry for you tomorrow, think I will be too far east for anything surface based tomorrow afternoon but Warwickshire looks very good.
  23. Paul Sherman
    Cant see how this time, you might be too far East for the Surface Based Storms tomorrow afternoon in the heat of the day, but this looks like one of the old skool Plumes of the 1980's and 1990's For the younger members they enveloped an area from Devon to Kent and Cherbourg to Calais and moved Northwards on mass and literally almost all saw night-time lightning shows. I would be VERY Surprised if you did not get affected (Norfolk) by an Overnight MCS Tomorrow Night or very early Tuesday Morning.
  24. Paul Sherman
    Lol Well Estofex pretty much in agreement with my thoughts but obviously much much more detail, and I agree 100% with them, they are also seeing 3 Phases, with the Non Severe waning of Elevated Storms before Midday, then the Surface Based Convergence Zone Storms (Probably Most Severe) before another round of Clusters (MCS) Moves North Eastwards in the overnight (Mon to Tues) To the poster that asked wether Lightning would be prolific, yes could be some very dangerous Lightning tomorrow.
  25. Paul Sherman
    Evening All Everything seems to be going to plan so far. This always looked like a 3 pronged attack from a few days ago most Models had a much better grasp on how things should play out, and with Phase 1 almost ticking along to the hour we have the first interesting Storms ongoing, this due to the Destabilising Plume moving into Central Southern and SW England, These Elevated Storms should continue to rumble away for the next few hours before waning by daybreak, am seeing lots of people worried about the leftover clag for tomorrow, would say at this stage dont be too worried, everything looks on course, Phase 2 and 3 come quite close together tomorrow, starting with Phase 2 for Surface Based Severe Storms from West of London arching towards NW England, these moving NE Into the East Midlands and Lincolnshire under 90-93f temps and Convergence. Phase 3 then starts from tomorrow evening and overnight into Tuesday Morning as an MCS Forecasted to initiate tomorrow 5pm onwards from SW England across to Northern France envelops Central Southern England and South East England moving Northwards, it is going to feel very uncomfortable tomorrow with 64f Dewpoints but still feel dangerous Lightning and Hail will be the Primary threats and not expecting any tornadic activity but cannot rule out any with CZ Type Surface Based Storms more especially Midlands later tomorrow afternoon. Enjoy! Paul S
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