Paul Sherman

El Lincoln-Shear-io Ole Ole Ole

Only when the dreaded "Mini Tornado Word" is mentioned in our dear old beloved Press..........Maybe Harsh then, Oh and also Daytime ClusterF**K MCS's from Froggieland! Have a feeling some of us are going to get a decent overnight show though!

Yh Maybe after the Storm Drought I suppose so, By all means go drive and sit under heavy rain with flashes of lightning, but the main point I was trying to get across is MCS's are always best at night, at least then we have the Lightning to Photograph etc It did not mean to come across as Harsh

Shafferknickers Might say it,

Gotta ask this question, but how in the hell do you chase an MCS ? Also known as a ClusterF**k in the USA. Surely if anyone is chasing then Home Grown Surface Based Storms are the only things worth chasing for structure, an MCS Will be a Grey Mess of rain with embedded lightning, MCS's are great at night though. Have quite a few locations down here that I am hoping to utilise now I know my Camera Setting etc for Lightning.

Hahaha I made that Youtube Clip with John Hanrahan, never knew it was still on the web - Great Stuff

You will NOT be pleased to hear I will be on the Norfolk Broads for most of next week and next weekend, should put the shield firmly in place over Angulaaar, but SE Essex should get a few corkers!

Belgium, Holland ?? I'll get me coat on the way out

Looks at the moment to be Southwards or South South Westwards on radar, we really need the ones up near cambridge to push southwards towards the London area ideally.

Definite Clear Convergence Zone now showing on radar, straight line from West of London to West Norfolk, looking good!

Looks like the Cap is at breaking point South and East of Reading, Lets see how these guys get on in the next hour or so!

Yes that and many other factors. some are a give away and are readily at our disposal from current surface obs as well. Take a look on XCWeather and you will see converging winds in that area, these would probably be sea breeze convergence zones making there way further inland, there is also a tongue of low level moisture if you look at the Dewpoints, there are a narrow strip of 63f Dewpoints from Boscombe Down in Central Southern England all the way up through Cranfield (South Midlands) and onto Wylton (Cambs/Lincs Border) Either side of this the low level moisture falls away to mid 55f dewpoints. Subtle Signs but ones that anyone looking for a Storm should be looking at on CZ Type Days. Paul S

If this animates Should give you a decent idea of where Convergence is Setting Up http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

So nearly 3 weeks on and all looking on target so far, cant really see anything to change the above prediction in the short to mid term Enjoy Guys..................Only 5 weeks to wait now

All good points within the discussion above so thanks for that. Agree with Sam to a point about SST's but not wholly as I remember a hell of a lot of as my dad put it in the 1980's (Electrical Storms Coming Up From France Again) These had very little if any rain and were soley of Continuous Lightning and very high based Thunder. 0bviously we all now know these are Elevated Storms which work off ML Cape and not so much SB Cape and so do not really get affected by the SST's. With regards the Pressure Charts Robbie Mentioned, I think it might be a good exercise to see if anyone can remember some great MCS's moving up from france in the 1980's and 1990's and then find the archived charts to see what the Pressure Patterns were like, it might be as simple as we just have not had the rub of the green where the Troughs are angled and engaging the warm moist plume coming northbound from Iberia, it really could be as simple as that, if we start seeing almost identical set-ups with the 80's and 90's delivering and the recent attemps failing it needs looking into much more i feel. Paul S

Tbh I gave up all hope in the early to middle naughties for Storms in this country, there was a gradual decline from about 1999 to about 2004, and since then it has got even worse to the point of not really expecting anything at all (And I live in the supposed place that gets the most in the Uk) That in itself just shows our summer patterns have changed in a big way. I am lucky enough to go to the USA Every year for 2 Months and would say we average about half a million bolts seen in those 8 weeks chasing, some Supercells spit out nearly 50,000 bolts in one storm for example. Have I got the answer ?? Well Nope not a clue, would love to find the reason though, it's not the Heat and Humidity, in fact over the last few years we have been getting some serious Dewpoint readings so the moisture is certainly there with mid 60's dps and mid 80's temps. Ask yourself this, how hard should it really be to get a surface based storm roll across the country and sustain until after dark, I have been following this closely and apart from a few storms a few years ago that sustained across the Midlands and Lincs/E Anglia and out into the North sea nothing has even come close, we are not talking Supercells here just a Multi Cell Cluster would do the job. Awful bloody awful! Will leave the thread with a few Cg Shots from this year just to show Lightning does still happen in other parts of the world , just not the Uk atm - Woodward (Oklahoma) June 2013 - Nebraska - May 2013

Pretty sure a breakdown of all the tours and availability will be released within the next week or so.

Cant quite work it out Robin. Had a few chats with Kaddy about all this and the pattern change over a few Fat Tyres a few weeks back (Yes she outdrunk me as well) Gah She IS of the opinion that something drastically has changed with our weather over the Summer Months but after all the chat and debate both of us were none the wiser. So no definitive answers really

Just remember what I said 1 week ago, next Storm Chances will be around the 19th - 31st August when I leave the country. Has been nearly 5 years since I saw Lightning at night in the UK, A pretty shocking record and one which is probably repeated across numerous locations in the Uk. To put it in perspective, in the 80's and 90's we would get on average 6-8 Spanish Plumes per year (Overnight) and also quite a few home grown surface based storm events as well, pretty shocking times if you are a lover of T&L In our neck of the planet. Ah well only 6 weeks until Arizona and 10 months until Stormchase 2014 I guess

I landed back yesterday........Nuff Said Sorry Guys Storm season will return 20th August when I next leave the country

Well what a day this turned out to be, with pretty much everything thrown in for good measure for the last day of Tour 5. We started in Scottsbluff and my chase target was always going to be just east of the front range in Wyoming in the areas North of Cheyenne, between Chugwater and Wheatland. A tornado watch was issued early at 11am and we ventured into Wyoming and quickly picked up huge towering Cb's to our west. I was always hopeful today that any Supercell that could get east of the Rockies would get the job done is decent 76f temps and mid to upper 50's dewpoints, with elevations of 5,500ft that would be plenty enough juice on tap. We initially got onto a storm north of Wheatland but it quickly became apparant from the look of the base of the storm to the south that this would become the major player, so we went south to Wheatland and had in front of us an amazing Classic Supercell sitting on top of the Rockies, we went west to sit under the base of this Supercell and watched it tighten up with incredible rotation above our heads, the first tornado dropped straight away in a field to our South West at a range of 1/4 Mile. - Classic Supercell 5 Miles SW Of Wheatland (Wyoming) - Tornado at the same location 5 minutes later. We then dropped this storm for another forming further south near Chugwater and again got just east of it, once it left the Rockies it quickly went Supercellular and put on some fantastic structure, we witnessed a very brief touchdown near Veteran (Wyoming) and then got further out ahead of it to see an incredible barrell Mesocyclone spinning away at incredible speeds to our North West. - Mesocyclone and Rotating Wall Cloud near La Grange (Wyoming) We started to take some sporadic golf ball and tennis ball sized hail so bailed south to the tail end charlie near Cheyenne, this storm was tracking due east and we stopped sporadically along Interstate 80 to get some Lightning pictures which were pinging out every few seconds - Cg Barrage ( 2 second exposure at F22 ISO 200) We the followed this Supercell eastwards for the next hour and at 654pm a beautiful Landspout Tornado dropped just to our east along the Interstate, this was on the ground for 4 Minutes. - Landspout Tornado near Dix (Nebraska) So the final throws of the 2013 Season came good and I got another 2 firsts today, my first Wyoming Tornadoes and my highest ever tornado at 5,500ft asl. This has been a season of mixed emotions with destructive tornadoes but also beautiful storms out in the High Plains. Paul S

Lol Big Stu Yes the Crystal Meth place is where we ate, although there was a very big space waiting for you around that Pool Table, even Vicary beat me at Pool Today = Bad day at the Office.com

Well its drawing to a close and it still looks like tomorrow is chaseable with Denver being so close. We were awoken to WAA Driven storms this morning and quite luckily the big 4" Hail Producer just managed to skirt to our south, that would have annoyed the rental company if that had rolled through our overnight location of Wall (SD) Today is a complex picture, we will be targetting the Extreme SW Of South Dakota and NW Nebraska and maybe a bit of Wyoming, after the Warm Air Advected Hailers move on through sufficient breaks and heating should allow Supercell Development over the Black Hills and the Mountains in an upslope flow regime, Supercells with an attendant risk of Very Large Hail and possibly a Tornado or Two is possible. Will have lunch in Wall then mosy on down to gas up in Rapid City and then get into position. Paul S

Yh last few days we have seen maybe 1 other tour group and a handfull of local chasers, you really would not know there were Supercells in the area and have to think to yourself, am I in the right area ? am I on the right storm etc. It's really nice actually

Hi Andy Some areas this year that have had training storms have had 9" of Rain in an afternoon, certainly puts some of our rain events to shame.