Paul Sherman

Would dearly love to get into the Progged Supercells in the Texas Panhandle today but alas picking guests up at 6pm will not allow us, but tomorrow we are sending 1 car into the Dryline play and keeping one back for the wednesday arrivals, we will not have streaming tomorrow (That can wait until Thursday) but everything almost set-up already in the 2 cars. A few pictures below - Wires Everywhere - 2 of the 3 Chase Vehicles! Paul S

This has got to be my favourite part of the Chases, All Supercell Structures are different and If I am honest I gladly take structure over Tornadoes, Structure with Tornadoes is obviously better but they are just Storms on a different level not seen anywhere else in the world.

Was a nice early season Storm yesterday about 4pm here in Leigh On Sea, missed the hail but could see the core to my south - west, got about 30 rumbles with the Storm that tracked just due south of me, a nice start to the Uk Season!

Yh will pick you girls up together, just get to the Car Rentals on the Blue Link Bus, Kathryn strangely enough you might get through quicker than Jo as you will probably have to clear customs in Atlanta whereas Jo will probably be queuing up a la Alton Towers stylee with the other 1,000 Non US Residents in the arrivals hall. Cant remember if you clear customs on your first leg of the journey or at the end though. Paul

Urmmm I think it is something called the "LLJ" Low Level Jet which can transport gulf moisture at warp speeds, dont worry it will get there easy enough!

Hmm, Maybe it was then, my memory might be giving up the ghost I know that the 2 Cells that fired NE Of Cardiff moved NE because Arron (Who is from Wales) was on the phone to me and I was nowcasting for him, he had to cut the chase off because his partners dad was taken unwell and he had to get back to Aber and was gutted that evening when the pictures and videos came out, I do recall an MCS Earlier in the day but seemed to remember this moving North of Birmingham and affected the NE Later in the day. Looking at the map it is possible that if cells fired near Newport and took on a NE Track that they would have just missed Birmingham, and gone through the gap between Leicester and Nottingham but just cant remember wether cells fired further east in the warm sector. Mr Knightley will know because he did a talk on this last weekend at the Torro Conference

Grabbed some radar images from Paul Knightley (Meteogroup) from this day which shows a Pair of Supercells that started out life in the Welsh Valleys and Matured across Leicestershire and Lincolnshire on June 28th 2012, 3 and a Half inch Hailstones were recorded with this storm and a very photogenic Tornado in Lincolnshire, there is numerous video on the net of this event which should not be hard to find. - Classic Supercell Look on Radar Paul S

Time to keep an eye on Tour 2 and what the Models are showing etc. One thing that is still looking certain is quite an active start to Tour 2, now I have been watching GFS Since it showed this on Day 15 and if anything things are improving as we get closer to the event. SPC 4-8 Day outlook now starting to talk about a more active period coming up as well, but due to the blend of Models they use are not highlighting anything yet although would expect to see a day 4 or 5 put in over the weekend when models converge a little bit more. There looks to be Thunderstorm chances on both Tuesday and Wednesday Night near the DFW Area, in fact GFS Is showing a nice little MCS On Wednesday Night - Over the last few days the one missing ingredient (Upper Support) has been slowly but surely showing itself on the Models, with the Southern Arm of the Split Jet Stream starting to impact the Southern Plains end of next week. So with all this in mind and at the T162 Range now take a look at the charts below, still looks like a nice dryline day with Extreme Cape and decent LCL's for Tornadoes if Storms can overcome any capping issues. - Cape off the Chart - Decent Moisture - Upper Support nosing into the Southern Plains So at this stage the models are flipping between a Texas Panhandle or Oklahoma Chase and I will leave you with this sounding from near Lawton for 6pm on Thursday, I think it speaks for itself and shows a very nice Set-Up with 82/73f Spreads and nice turning with Height. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=05&model_dd=03&model_init_hh=06&fhour=162&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y&sounding.lat=34.5609&sounding.lon=-97.9541 Cant wait to get set up now and get out there amongst those Supercells!

Thought it might be an idea also to let the newbies know just who is on the staff and what sort of experience we have in hopefully getting you great storms and tornadoes. I think I am right in saying we have a collective of nearly 40 years of chase experience between all of the team, which is pretty impressive. There would also be about 100 Tornadoes between the 7 of the Team Members. After this chase season is over I will have been "Out In The Field" for 255 days And probably covered about 120,000 Chase Miles on the road The Most Tornadoes in 1 day for us stands at 6 which was last year on the 25th May in Kansas. The Best Tour there has been (And the one to beat) was end of May 2008 when guests saw 13 Tornadoes in 10 days. The Team for this year is as follows, Paul Sherman Tom Lynch John Hanrahan Arron Hiscox Ian Michaelwaite Ian Cameron Dave Vicary

Any questions about things on the trip please Pm me on here, I would usualy say no to anything more than a lightweight waterproof or cardigan/jumper but this year is full of surprises with regards to the late season snow etc, please also bring along Cd's if you are of a certain music persuasion, bug spray is a must if we are chasing in Texas, not so much of a problem further north into Oklahoma and Kansas at the moment. Any other questions will answer straight away. Also SPC Now hinting at the Ridge being eroded in their latest 4-8 Day Outlook, Western US Trough is now evident in all models and its really just how fast this ejects into the Plains, with ECM Having an active day wednesday, GooFuS is slower with Thursday being the start on some active weather, both show moisture returning though which is a good sign. VALID 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 6 WITH REGARD TO FUTURE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW THAT WILL CUTOFF OVER THE CNTRL STATES. FOR DAYS 4-5 /SUN-MON/ THE CONSENSUS AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE SERN STATES...LIKELY NOT EXITING THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD UNTIL LATE DAY 6 OR EARLY DAY 7. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO CUTOFF OVER CA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO DAY 5 BEFORE POSSIBLY EJECTING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY DAY 7...BUT THERE IS INCONSISTENCY AMONG SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE. THE SLOW MOVING ERN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL PROMOTE OFFSHORE GULF WINDS SUGGESTING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6 AND UNTIL THIS FEATURE MOVES OFF THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD. THIS WOULD ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF EJECTING WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC RUN OF THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND INDICATES MOISTURE RETURNING THROUGH THE PLAINS DAY 7 IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS SLOWER AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DISPERSIVE AT THIS RANGE. WHILE IT APPEARS SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE DAYS 7-8 /WED-THU/ OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...MODELS HAVE NOT CONVERGED SUFFICIENTLY...AND UNCERTAINTIES LINGER REGARDING THE SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS EXTENT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. Temperatures for Landing on Tuesday look to be around 25c 77f and on Wednesday landing day looks to be near to 27c 81f. Both days could also see isolated Thundery Showers. Will be making a decision at the start of next week on wether to Stay the night at the Base Hotel on Wednesday Night or to pick up the last of the guests and head up towards a target area Wednesday evening. Regards Paul

I would say Confidence is increasing by the day actually Neil. Have been watching the 9th and 10th since it came into the Days 15 & 16 range and every single run has shown it to be exactly the same. It is looking like a nice Caprock Magic Dryline day to me, only thing just not there is the upper flow so Large Hail could be the primary threat, but Supercells should be on tap with nearly 4,000jkg of Cape and decent Moisture running up the Caprock. Todays 00z was showing this. - Thursday 9th May - Moisture

Absolutely agree Nathan, there is way way too much doom and gloom all over facebook and twatter from our american cousins! Think some expect High Risks on a weekly basis but the harsh reality is only 1 High Risk in the last 2 years not including 24th May 2011 and that was April 14th 2012. Give me Slights and Moderates all day long over those, as these are the days that can spring surprises (S Dakota May 2011) Campo (May 2010) etc etc even May 25th 2012 was quite a surprise. We will all have fun doing our hobby that we love and are priveliged to do and I am sure there will be some surprises over the next 8 weeks!

Yh, Too many chasers just look for the Big 990mb LP's crashing through the Central Plains with it's 90-100 knots flow, what they sometimes fail to see is the Southern Arm of the Sub Tropical Jet, this can exert its influence through the Southern Plains and give some decent chase days along the dryline near the Caprock or Western Texas, these chases are much more fun than 60mph Storm Motions for example. Not too worried at all, the dreaded death ridge of late may 2009 saw us chase 10/10 days with decent Supercells thrown in as well, if you look hard enough there should be chase opportunities to be had, and if it's the Big Bend area of Texas then so be it. Just seeing a Storm will satisfy most people I think on the tours as the Uk has been shocking these last few years other than the big 28th June day last year in the Midlands.

Only Tours 2-5 this year Neil, Me and the Team are arriving Monday 6th May and setting up the vehicles over the next few days after this, the first offical chase day is Thursday 9th May for Tour 2. Thank Goodness there was not a Tour 1 this year.

Couple of Posts I wanted to Highlight over on Stormtrack. First one is from Mike Smith who works for the NWS In Wichita A couple of thoughts: The snow cover in isn't going away immediately and, even once it is gone, there will be wet ground that will make southern Canada and the far northern U.S. tending cooler than normal over the next 30 days or so.Believe it or not (I just checked) water temperatures are normal in the west Gulf and warmer than normal in the east Gulf. At some point, this potential extreme (for May) temperature gradient is going set off a huge day or a huge period (think May, 2003) of above normal tornado activity.I expect there are plenty of tornadoes yet to occur this year. It is just Mother Nature is 30 days behind with temperatures. And from Derek Weston last monthly run of ecmwf showed some troughy goodness from around may 6-13ishAll subject to change, naturally. So who is going to be the lucky ones this Season, btw look up the end on May 2003 and be amazed! Paul S

Pretty much why most tours dont get involved with April chasing Neil, the gap between Set-Ups can be long sometimes, at least in May you can get some Upslope whilst awaiting the next system for example. These Cold Front passages need to do one soon though I agree, although GFS is trending to troughing right at the end in fantasy Island for the 6th May (But that to be taken with a pinch of salt) Something has to give soon i would imagine, dont want a 1988 & 1989 Season as if you look back at the hostory books showed almost zero action across Tornado and indeed Dixie Alley. Do have a feeling though that Dixie will be in play for some of May, good for Tornadoes, bad for views and photographers with mostly grungefests and a bane for structure bunnies!

Definately the best Set-Up since April 14th last year, and would also expect a small area of SW & Western Oklahoma to go High Risk on the 13z or 16z Update today, only limiting factor will be cloud cover etc. All the ingrediants as Neil says above speak for themselves, with 25-30mph storm motions as well off the dryline a stunning chase, my chase bubble would be from Lawton to Altus to Chickasha to Hobart. Am fully expecting Nick to bag his first Tornado today, and it could be a strong one as well if the undercutting cold front gets delayed.

Yep just seen that, your right they start when Stu effectively ends on 26/27th April, so dont know then wether Stu had a hunch April might be decent. Looks like he will get a chase tomorrow (High Based Hailers) then Wednesday (Still not sold on the outcome even at this range) and then Thursday if he chooses the trees of the Arklatex. After that the moisture is gone and not back until he flies back

Hi Ollie April is usually better than May for stronger outbreaks but the time between Storm Systems and also the lack of Upslope deters tours from starting until the Middle or last third of the month, but if you hit it right April can be a belter of a month. I tend to list the best months for tornadoes as May first and April and June equal 2nd, there really is not a lot in it apart from geographical location and storms speeds etc, eg you are more than likely going to be chasing in the Panhandles of Texas and Okie, Southern Plains and the Ozarks in April and in the Dakotas and the High Plains in June.

Neil Stu is starting his 10 day stint with SLT I am almost 100% certain, he said on Ukww that he would make a trip back later in May on his own if a decent Multi Day Set-Up was looking likely.

And perfect timing for Stu Robinson who lands at OKC Today and starts his 10 days chasing tomorrow, the next 2 days could make his season as he only has 10 days out there and after Thursday it looks quiet after that with Gulf Moisture cleared back down to Yucatan courtesy of another Strong Cold Front! Wednesday could be Western Oklahoma Dryline Magic and the streams should be excellent.

That is someone else Matty, a guy called Lee who is from Reading, Looks like he has gone out for the Easter Holidays for 2 weeks (Maybe a Teacher etc) and teamed up with an American Chaser. His chase dates were 1st - 15th April and it looks like he might now return to the UK With a zero Tornado count, that is the BIG Risk going so early in the Season with big gaps between systems especially with Polar Cold Fronts like this. Lets hope he gets something out of today and Thursday as after that the Moisture looks to be back down in Mexico. Regards Paul S

That was a great write up from Jeff and when he posted that last night I was in 100% agreement with him. My record with ana frontal events over the 10 years I have been doing this is at a woefull 0 / 7 and the average time I have called a chase off is around 2-3pm on these events. Best bet is to just go home kick a few walls and prepare for the next system

Monday 8th April - Dryline Tornado Event ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS MON/D7... DESPITE SHORT TERM DISCREPANCIES...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A WRN TROUGH...AND EJECTING A LEADING SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS ON MON/D7. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO BRING MID 60S F DEWPOINTS INTO OK BY MON...SUGGESTING AN UNBROKEN FETCH FROM THE GULF...WHILE THE ECMWF MIXES DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S. REGARDLESS...IF THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HOLDS TRUE...A DRYLINE SUPERCELL EVENT WILL OCCUR WITH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. TORNADO DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AS STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BOTH FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. HOWEVER...GIVEN MOISTURE QUALITY QUESTIONS...TIMING OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY SMALL THREAT AREA...NO AREA WILL BE OUTLINED AT THIS TIME. 9th Looks like a Significant Event likely across the Arklatex!

Yep Looking like a run of some great Tornado Days and the Fabled Dryline Set-Up Lucky Buggers ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS - D8... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN CONUS AFTER ABOUT D7 WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE ERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IS UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR DRYLINE SUPERCELLS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD FROM KS INTO OK AND TX. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS NRN OK BY 00Z ON THE 9TH.