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Paul Sherman

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Everything posted by Paul Sherman

  1. That was a fun chase, Not South Dakota in the end but the other Dakota (North Dakota) just It felt like we would never get there, with roadworks stopping us in our tracks, we finally got under the base of the Stationery Supercell about 15 miles into North Dakota, we witnessed about 6 Funnel Clouds including a wedge funnel cloud tornado look alike, the storm moved about 15 miles in 6 hours, gotta love those Northern Plains Supercells. Hoping South Dakota makes a better fist of it today. - Wedge Funnel Cloud ?? God Only Knows - Our Position under the base, the rotation at this point was like a merry go round. - 4th Funnel Cloud of the Day - Huge Wall Cloud, LCL's dragging the deck with t/tds of 82/72 Paul S
  2. Excellent Lightning Display tonight just south of the Black Hills in NW Nebraska. Will be up and out in 5 hours in readiness for Thursday's risk. Paul S
  3. Err Nope, I am actually hoping the UK Gets back to having storms like the 80's and 90's when these were commonplace from June to September.
  4. Good Luck Guys, Watching this unfold from the States, surely one of these systems is going to crash into good old blighty!
  5. Yes a volitile situation "if" something can form and thats a very big "if" in the area we are looking into with eyes on Thursday and Fridays potential in S Dakota and Nebraska on Multi days (Thur & Friday) So that means we will not be going that far south today, It looks like some fun and games for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles though later with some Mothership Supercells. Ending the day down there puts the Northern Plains out of reach for tomorrow so got to be sensible about this one. Thanks for starting the thread Neil
  6. Denver Cyclone Day, short missed tornado by 15 minutes, rest of the chase was great witnessed 4 more tornado warned storms and 3 with funnels. Just did a huge write up on this which timed me out so will have to do it tomorrow now as too late in the day.
  7. Cant really list all the states in Slight Risk zones so will keep it short. Starting today in Burlington and we are going to have a crack at the DCVZ (Denver Cyclone Convergence Zone) Storms and Supercells should form by early afternoon across the Big Horn and Laramie Ranges of Wyoming, the Front Range of the Rockies and the Santa Rosa Mountains of New Mexico. We will be going for the Denver Cyclone today, a unique set up which brings the Palmer Divide into play which extends eastwards from the Front Range. South Easterly surface upslope winds convergeing against westerly or North westerly flow creates this unique set-up a few times per year and today looks like it could yield something east and south east of the Denver Metroplex. So will be heading west towards Limon and Bennett for todays chase. Regards Paul S
  8. Rinse and Repeat from Sunday by the looks of things but a tad further into Colorado, Storms should evolve of the higher terrain of the rockies and Laramie Divide and head south east bound, ultimately ending in an MCS Again. Hoping for some Colordo Magic in Washington and Weld Counties maybe or further south near Limon, Last Chance etc Paul S
  9. Started the day in Sterling (Colorado) and teamed up with my Mentor and Good Friend Dave Ewoldt today as this was his last days chasing the High Plains and that type of opportunity with a guy who has 32 years in the field is too good to pass up. His target of Ogallalla was a great one and whilst travelling along I-76 Into Nebraska the storm literally exploded into life about 5 miles west of Ogallalla. Even then Dave was saying further North is best for a tornado and we very nearly did not even head south towards Imperial and instead go north from Ogallalla towards Hyannis This would have bagged us the Tornado very easily, but the cell to our west went upto 40k feet almost in 15 minutes so we went with it, it quickly morphed into a lovely Classic Supercell, we stuck with it for about an hour. - Classic Supercell near Madrid (Nebraska) Storms were forming a line to our Supercells South West and it was becoming obvious that a messy MCS Was about to Set-Up, Dave then noted a South West moving outflow boundary from the early morning convection over the Valentine area and the storm near Hyannis crossed this boundary and quickly produced a Tornado. We blasted North to a few cells in between North Platte and the Tornado warned cell to see if these could also interact with the boundary, but no such luck, most of the energy had been used by that first cell, we did get to see another 2 Supercells but the day was already waning at 1830pm. Ended the day with some structure shots and a lovely LP Supercell in the Sand Hills of Nebraska. - LP Supercell near Arthur Colorado tomorrow...........we hope if Nebraska lets go
  10. Started the day in Council Bluffs (Iowa) and made the long trek across Nebraska on the I-80. Storms would today form on the Laramie Divide in Wyoming and head South Eastwards towards NE Colorado. We left late but got on the best storm coming out of Goshen County and intercepted along Highway 71 South of Kimball. The Storm was pulsing up and down a lot, the best phase was from almost nothingness to Baseball Sized Hail right above our heads, we managed to get out with just a few golf balls, other chase vehicles coming out had cracked windscreens. The structure was really pretty and the colour differences between the fields and sky amazing, headed east towards Sterling where we watched the decaying Classic to LP Stage of the Supercell and are in a great position for a Fathers Day chase today. - Church of the Plains at Stoneham (Colorado) - UFO Spotting at Sterling (Colorado) Paul S
  11. Started the day in Sidney (Nebraska) with a chase target of Norfolk (Ne) which is where we thought the Warm Front would be maximised near the triple point. Storms fired early over NW Kansas and C Nebraska but were in an environment of big temp/td spreads and were not really what we were targeting. So we waited and our patience was rewarded with the only warm front storm of the day about 8 miles from us upon initiation. We watched it from Cumulus to developing storm and Classic Supercell as it crossed the warm front. It was literally crawling at 5mph but the main problem with why we did not get a tornado on this storm was its proximity to the other storms racing towards it at 40mph. Only one thing was going to happen and we had a brief window of about 2 hours before the line caught our Supercell and the whole line became a mess and MCS Which would head east towards Omaha. So no Cigar on the Tornado Front today but Structure Heaven once again in Nebraska and was very happy with both target location and how we chased today.
  12. Drove from Salina to be in Chadron by 5pm today, waited it out whilst the Supercells were ongoing in Wyoming and the waiting paid off with a Lone LP Supercell that formed on the end of a line of mush just west of Alliance (Nebraska) This storm rapidly gained a tornado warning and the rotation cranked up a few funnel clouds but no tornadoes were sighted from our vantage point just NE Of the Storm North of Alliance on Highway 385. The same road screwed us over a bit when we were literally 1 mile from the updraught at darkness, visually what we saw was insane with a corkscrew updraught and beavers tail but pictures could not take it in as we were too close. Some Golf Ball hail started hitting the car so aborted south and ended the day in Scotts Bluff Paul S
  13. Tom has covered that very well with the chase report, got on a very nice Supercell SE Of Dodge City which produced 2 Funnel Clouds, the Mammatus at the end was some of the best I have ever seen.
  14. Quite a nasty looking day today with a SE Moving Cold Front across the Central Plains. Tornado risk is questionable due to the quickness of it all lining out and becoming a wind damage threat, but there could be a few surprises in there today as Hodo's might become favourable later today when the LLJ Kicks into gear, Mid 50's dewpoints hold the instability down quite a degree and large temp/dewp spreads might make this a pretty gust front type of day. We shall see what we can find, but as most know I am not a fan of CF Type days. Paul S
  15. For a day with no Supercells and severe multi cell storms this was surprisingly good, and the best photography day of the tour barring the Nebraska LP Supercell. We stuck with our little storm which was meandering in Baca county and she went from the smallest to the most severe at one point in the day, and put on a nice show with picture opportunities most of the day. The Storm started in Colorado, crossed into New Mexico, then Oklahoma and finally into Texas, a 4 state storm. Some pictures for you.
  16. Yep Clayton for lunch and top up of the gas, and then a trip out west on the 412 to sit in front of those mountains on the grasslands topping up the tan as we go.
  17. 3 Days left of tour 4 and we are pretty decently placed for today's risk if the models are too be believed. Both 4km and "C" RAP Are firing cells just to our west which encroach into the Texas Panhandle by late afternoon, the reality will probably be that they get stuck in and around Springer and Mosquero again so a little drift into New mexico to see some storms might be the order of the day before bugging out and getting North East for tomorrow's risk. Not much if any chance of Tornadoes today and hail and lightning the primary risks. Regards Paul S
  18. Was sitting here in disbelief when Ian M sent me a message earlier this week. Hoping you make a speedy recovery and stay away from roofs! Gah
  19. Hi Neil, Yep defo NOT Going for the SW Texas, Big Bend risk today, for a few obvious reasons. 1. You risk your life in some of those parts of the Texas / Mexico border 2. Roads near the Davis and Sacramento Mountains are almost non existant 3. We need to chase tomorrow SW Kansas, OK Panhandle where I am certain a Slight Risk will be introduced. Will certainly have a look at the potential in NE New Mexico though
  20. Lol, It has got some right this year and on the big days as well, seems to be struggling with the harder set-ups though, whereas the other models have been better consistently more. Swings and roundabouts though.
  21. Tbh Neil I think you are putting way too much faith in the HRRR, Which has been absolutely appalling this year, it has hit 1 of the 28 days we have been chasing and even before this during April it was all out to sea with regards where it was putting mesoscale features. I am also sceptical of the 5% Tornado Risk but can see something rolling out of New Mexico into West Texas as winds back to the east around 00z to 01z timeframe. I can see the threat for a small window in SW Oklahoma and North of the Red river and would not be surprised to see a 5% box put in on the 20z timeframe, but also with 1 eye on tomorrows chase will almost certainly head west as the next few days look like the same general area. But still awaiting more model data before a final decision is made. Might be totally wrong again on this one, but $hit happens as they say.
  22. Started the day in Amarillo and had a pretty good idea on where storms should be firing with a target if Guymon in the Oklahoma Panhandle. This day reminded me a little of the Graham (Tx) day where lots of small storms would mill about for a few hours raining on each other until 1 Supercell took hold and bossed proceedings, and thats how it worked out the only different part was 2 Supercells ended the day squaring up to each other. One thing these storms had early and late in their life was some of the most stunning Cg's we have ever seen, this in part to the elevated nature of the storms early. We were also treated to some spectacular structure, I should really have gone west on Highway 270 at about 830pm to a stunning Classic Supercell on the end of the line but our stomachs won through and we headed into Woodward early, we still were able to keep an eye on this storm from 15 miles to the east though. After we got back to Woodward a 2nd round of storms fired and we were then treated to 4 hours of stunning electricity which finally abated at about 3am. A nice chase to get back into it after the tragic events of last friday. - 3 Amigos Cg Strike (Kind of Fitting Really) - Structure at end of day, - 1 of the 50 shots I got, it really was like taking candy from a baby. Paul S
  23. It pains me to put this picture up now knowing what happened shortly after this was shot with regards to Team Twistex. But just to give you an idea of the moment of the shot and what was going on, at the time of the picture below the very large and Violent Wedge just to our North was moving East South East and should have been just to our east after looking at this shot from a close and safe enough distance. What happened next was unforeseen, with the Tornado turning a complete 90 degrees and heading straight North parrallelling the road you see, the cars are heading south bound at this time. Such a tragic picture now knowing what we know. - El Reno Wedge Tornado Paul S
  24. Absolutely devastating news breaking over here about the deaths of 3 veteran chasers involved in the El Reno EF3 Tornado. It seems the source is very credible and the news is that Tim Samaras, His Son and Carl Young have lost their lives when their vehicle was hit when the tornado was nearly 2 miles wide. I am absolutely devastated as have met Tim and Carl numerous times out here, and it seems they had no chance to outrun the tornado as it turned 90 degrees to the North back towards El Reno RIP Brothers in the Field Paul S
  25. An absolutely adrenalin filled day with crazy things happening with large violent tornadoes early and circulations that were out of our control a lot of the time and it took a lot of careful planning to get us out of the doggy do. Initial target was Yukon to El Reno along the Triple Point and Pooling of the greatest moisture and storms erupted about 20 miles to our west, we initially went north to Okarche but I soon noted the tail end charlie was going to be the dominant beast of the day and early in it's life cycle it turned hard right from ENE To East and then South East, Just south of El Reno along Highway 81 the Structure became breath-taking. - Supercell Structure SW Of El Reno The storm was started to really tighten up and a tornado was imminant, re-positioned further south a few miles and could see but not picture the start of a Multi Vortex Tornado to our West North West, this came flying towards us until it was about 1/4 mile in a field to our west, traffic at this point was getting silly as they had shut I-40. Went another 1/4 of a mile south and parked up and watched a violent wedge tornado cross the road where we had been sitting, it was here that numerous cars got tossed and thrown off the highway including the Weather Channels Tornado Hunt vehicle. - Ultra contrasted picture of the wedge 1/4 mile north of us. The above picture is enhanced as my camera could not pick up what we were seeing to our north due to screaming 65mph inflow winds and insane rfd winds. Went east at Union City and then the problems started taking the chase out of our control, every road was grid-locked in all directions and the Storm further NW Was also starting to put down tornadoes, we still had the big wedge to our north and another tornadic circulation near Mustang. Only way out was drive straight towards the hook and circulation and pick our way through a safe passage, finally core punched the storm back to El Reno and back across the damage path of the wedge. Ended the day in Norman watching Lightning and dodging hail cores. Another sad day with 5 dead unfortunately but it could have been much worse today if stronger tornadoes had hit traffic clogged areas. Paul S
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