cheeky_monkey

In the middle of having my new boiler fitted so winter can now officially commence..ta very much

what about going through the whole of winter without a frost?..now there a thought

My boiler broke on the 23rd of November and have had no heating or proper hot water since then..so im thankful for a record breaking December

don't go to Winnipeg its a dump..i have lived in both Edmonton and Calgary..love the summers and autumn...not the mosquitoes though!...novelty of cold and snow soon wear thin..but the sunshine is lovely..spring is the worst season though ..often cool/cold drab and wet at times.

Exactly the set up during December 1946 is nothing like the pattern we have now...as stated elsewhere before the really severe weather hit in the 3rd week of Jan 1947..there had already been a fair amount of cold and snow around in the first part of winter which a lot of people may not realise.

December was cold as well CET of about 3c

this gets rolled out every year and just isn't true...there was quite a lot of cold and snow around during December 1946 and early January 1947.

Not sure this is strictly correct..Gavin Partridge did a very interesting vid on the analogues of different types of El-Nino events..strong basin wide events as we have now always seem to produce mild winters for Europe and the British Isles.

no last el-nino was 2009/10 which was a weak to moderate affair..this is much larger and basin wide..which is more likely to enhance the euro high and produce lengthy spells of zonal westerly winter weather as we have now.

agreed many people seem to be ignoring the large el-nino event going on...on this fact alone and its a big factor IMO I cant see any cold weather before February..even then I wouldn't hold my breath..still if you need inspiration look at 82-83..big el-nino very mild Dec and Jan followed by a cold snowy Feb.

has there ever been a December where no days have come in below the average CET value?

True many same species of trees where I lived in Canada (same latitude as the UK) shed their leaves and come into foliage at totally different times to the UK

Very mild again this morning...also some scarily mild charts showing up on the latest GFS run as we head towards Christmas..maybe record breaking if it happens..also something I have found quite remarkable is the harmony of daytime temperatures throughout the year..away from the SE most days maybe 95% have been between 10-20c all year long..no cold and no heat.

is it?

its a classic strng el nino set up from what i can see ...i see very little change this month and probably not any real change on into the middle of January

I remember January and February 1990 being particularly mild and windy

I didn't know there were any 'mild' rampers?..as the weather by definition in the UK is mild most of the time

i have some lovely photos of that February'99 snow fall taken on the old polaroid instamatic camera..remember those?

im sticking to my guns and have gone from 80% sure of Mild winter to 100% confidence..i think with the strong El Niño weather pattern now setting up across North America it will be mild and zonal..may end up with a colder spring though.

yep I wouldn't be advising anyone to invest in a sledge for this winter..unless its sister sledge xmas album

1980 and 1985 I think? both had cold and snow earlier in the month..1980 I think was in the first week.

doesn't matter nor do I care..snow falling does not even register these days..just like rain I take no notice...the novelty of snow has gone never to return.

Ive chucked in a few..my bday..the day I got married and the birth of my 3 children

Actually its damn hard backbreaking work shovelling your drive and footpaths..make sure you don't drive across your drive before you clear it otherwise it compacts the snow down and the bottom layers becomes ice and you cant move the stuff!..often I would return from work or before I left for work have to clear my drive..if it was particularly heavy snowfall it could take the best part of hour or two to get the job done..no fun at all..i hated it..no wonder many people die of heart attacks shovelling snow each winter!

Most interesting theme to me on this chart is the northward push of the pacific ridge towards Alaska and how that will effect the jet through North America? and whether this will force the North Atlantic ridge in the same direction?