Bricriu
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Is the dangerous though that this low may just hang around and fill in situ before another low comes along. I was looking forward to some dry and cold weather,but now it could well be cold rain for a couple of days if the low becomes slow moving. I could deal with the cold rain if the latest GFS is correct about this just being a delay to colder weather arriving in the early days of December. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We need to shut off the North Atlantic drift or reverse the spin of the globe. Some people might then start searching deep fi for signs of rain in that scenario:) -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's nearly always the case that we are looking on with envy while England gets all the snow. Maybe this time we will get in on the action later on. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A disappointing start or strat? -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I am wondering where blast from the past is too. I hope he is alright. You'd miss his optimism and enthusiasm for the cold. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
With the low ending up in Scotland and then filling that surely means most places will end up milder for a time at least. Why can't it fill a 100 miles off the South Coast of Ireland. As someone said if there is a way to kill an Easterly the models will find it -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's certainly the case for most of Ireland anyway. I am expecting cold rain here. I was hoping for some dry weather if we couldn't have snow, but the GFS and UKMO has other ideas. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We are in the game, but these shortwaves coming together at best could delay real cold, at worst could scupper a cold spell. It's never good to see these hanging around out west. We need them modelled further south for a decent frontal snow event and then a clean evolution to cold air winging its way over us -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can I just say in relation to settling snow ,the snow fall we had on the evening of 16th December 2010 was one of the most memorable I ever experienced, because I had never seen snow stick so readily to wet ground as it did that evening shortly after the transition from rain to snow. I haven't seen anything like it since either. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I said it more in jest than anything else. I know well that an average to poor winter for North America still means they are likely to get a lot more snow than we are likely to have. As regards our cold spell, let's hope there is no hangover in the morning , but at the very least we are going to have a break from the zonal flow for a few days. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So for once some snow lovers on North American forums maybe the ones looking on enviously and search deeping fi for any sign of colder weather. Let's hope so anyway. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If a robust high to the north east can be maintained , it might not matter. A colder easterly may develop after day 10. From an imby perspective I would prefer a strong Greenland high but that could come eventually anyway if we maintain the blocking pattern . I really hope the idea about a boundary is correct- but for once we are on the cold side of the boundary over here and we get heavy frontal snowfall at some point-preferably Christmas week. Although snow is welcome any time! -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
To me it looks like he is just scrambling for an explanation because it goes against what he thinks should be happening due to teleconnections. It's like the July situation all over again. The simple truth maybe the weather sometimes just defies the background signals? Having said that some of the things happening in atmosphere this year are the same as they were in winter of 2009. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It would be sods law if it was right about the return to mild. I am just trying not to get my hopes up too much for something epic only to be let down -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The EC46 does not show it lasting unfortunately. By the way where is the poster blast from past/Fred I thought he would be around for this. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, I think you are right it will be a halfway house solution. The fact UKMO aren't on board either is a bad sign, but if we end up with some settled weather with frost and fog at night it wouldn't be a bad outcome from my perspective. I have had enough of rain for a while, so even a temporary reprieve will do. -
The storm is done and dusted here in the west of Ireland. I don't think the gusts were as strong as forecasted to be anywhere(in Ireland), but still this was a potent storm while it lasted
- 105 replies
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- ireland
- red wind warning
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I saw it straight away. Maybe that's worse. The end of the ECM looks primed! -
Is that ECM run an outlier or a last minute downgrade?
- 105 replies
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- ireland
- red wind warning
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just to be clear, are you saying that the splitting of the tpv could be scuppered by the spv and as a consequence we end up with the strat and trop coupling. That could explain the thinking behind the latest UKMO update if so -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'd take the ECM or GEM this evening. The more plausible scenario seems to be a toppling high on the GFS. Regarding the UK Met Office a couple of weeks ago they had a tentative signal for winds from the East or North East around Mid November onwards. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The only crumb of comfort there is to the north east. If we can hold on to the heights there longer term then perhaps we could have a favourable outcome down the line- or is this just inviting everyone to be led up another garden path -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Bricriu replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Was it not Ural Blocking that led to the cold spell back in the Winter of 2009 and 2010? -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Bricriu replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Excuse my ignorance, but what are MSCs? Some kind of supercell thunderstorms? -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Bricriu replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well I think what's quite evident from the charts in fi is that the unusually warm sea temperatures around the West Coast of Ireland will be pegged back in the next couple of weeks. We looking to be going back to crappy normal summer weather for us,with the south east of England getting any warm and dry weather on offer. Still we did have almost three weeks of fine weather. So i can't grumble too much.