Supacell

Just got back after chasing a storm from around Stoke on Trent to Manchester and then watching it from around Manchester. I have to say I don't think I can remember seeing lightning so frequent. As it departed it was producing a constant display of IC lightning and flashes. As I core punched the storm to the west of Manchester it was producing absolute torrents of rain, strong winds and plenty of lightning of both the flashy and the bolty variety. A great end to a memorable day for intense heat with one of my best storms to date. I cannot believe people were writing this one off. Just about to catch up on this thread now but I bet a lot of people have seen something quite special this evening

I think it will be a Friday night event this far north, although we both know how unpredictable storms can be. Current models have it arriving with us early hours of Saturday though.

I will start a new thread tomorrow morning after we have seen the rest of today's potential (if nobody else beats me to it)....so it's a yes And yes, Friday's potential could still be quite widespread.

This thread is ridiculous this evening. There are people moaning about not having seen a storm yet and it is only just gone 6pm. There are people attacking other members for gracing us with their more experienced views. Nobody is paid to put their thoughts on here, they do so out of their enjoyment of the subject and to give us an insight into what is likely to happen. I for one very much appreciate the likes of those who provide their honest balanced opinions and quite frankly get tired of those that provide attacks towards the met office and others - I am sure many others agree. If I had more time I would go through and delete 50% of the posts on here, or at least move them to where they should be. Is the heat getting to people or what???? I still think there is hope both this evening, tonight and then for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Come on, we all share a love of storms - lets not start attacking each other.

The storm over the NE is Derby born and bred Another narrow line of showers and sferics heading towards Brighton from the Channel.

It actually looks better than today for most, although Euro4 did not pick up on the storms moving through Yorkshire currently so not sure how accurate that is.

The road network is so rubbish in the UK, traffic congestion is the bane of a UK storm chaser. I have the choice of the A52/A1 I suppose. Thanks though for that mate.

The storm moving north through the Peak District missed Derby by about 2-3 miles. I could see some distant bolts and plenty of distant rumbles but I was hoping for a closer hit. Problem now is it distracted me from getting north into a decent location for anything later this afternoon. Thank you for the information about the lorry fire on the M1, that is valuable information as I would have probably have used that route (main route north from here). It is currently 33c and feels so humid you literally pour with sweat as soon as you step out the door. 33c makes it the hottest day here since July 2006 I believe.

I am actually thinking that something will break out over NW England/NW Midlands late afternoon and head NE through East Yorkshire - so maybe somewhere such as the Humber evening time. Still guess work though. Recent sferic north of Coventry.

I am no expert and it is hard to second guess where is best. I would think we could be in the breeding ground area and so areas further north east would be better. Looking at current charts you wouldn't want to bet against Lincolnshire.

Thanks Paul, I am on this and really hoping to see something this afternoon. Car fuelled, camera ready - all I need is the nod from the charts/radar and I am off.

Unfortunately it looks to be dying rather than developing. We do look to be in a good position though on the Torro forecast. I am still planning on heading north but maybe directly north rather than northwest.

The destruction of the cell to my south is already happening. It is a good sign though that storms are breaking out and I think later on there will be better chance of something more meaty as we see some deep layer shear overlap high CAPE values. They have all been quite short-lived storms so far today.

Storm over the Cotswolds has Derby in its sights if it can survive

Currently 29c/16c here and feeling very humid. Not much thundery activity in the UK as yet but I feel this will change this afternoon and evening.

I am liking somewhere around Manchester as a good spot for later this afternoon, the risk then expanding north and east from this area through the evening and night. I may drive towards Lancashire after lunch.

Active storm making UK soil just east of Plymouth. A sign of things to come I hope.

Currently a few high based showers with one or two rumbles across the Midlands. There is an army of thunderstorms across France heading in this direction, some of these look to hit South Devon shortly. Here it is sunny and dry with a deep pink sunrise and just one or two high clouds but temperatures already at 16c with a dewpoint of 12c. Here I am just under the Estofex Level 2 but most of the UK is under the Level 1. Still at this range a great deal of divergence regarding where storms will break out today, and we are now into the period of action. The best I could do to try and guess is follow wind convergence, and there are a few - most being across Wales around Midday and moving into NW England then N England (Hull to Carlisle) and numerous ones in Scotland. I would guess at N Wales, NW England and then the north Pennines along with most of Scotland being best placed but really anywhere could see a storm.

I am getting quite interested in the charts for next week now. We are one day away from the arrival of the heat to the extent I will likely arrive back into the uk tomorrow and be greeted to similar temperatures I have left in Slovenia (30c yesterday). Then tomorrow night sees the start of what could be a very noteworthy thundery spell with storms moving across western parts overnight and then transferring slowly east during Wednesday. It can and probably will still change but it is looking increasingly likely for this first batch of storms. It then looks as if after a day with lower storm potential on Thursday (still some potential I may add) there is another shove of a thundery plume into Friday. Details and timing of this subject to change as still 4/5 days away. All in all a very interesting week of weather with potential of some intense and possibly severe storms with Weds and Fri currently looking the best days. Edit. I should have said this week not next. The continental heat is getting to me

Here in Slovenia there are alerts for thunderstorms again from 3pm until 8pm :-)

Wow, it narrowly missed my hotel but that was a proper storm! Bolt fest to my east :-)

Currently in Ljubljana, Slovenia and things looking interesting with storms breaking out. Nothing here yet but the storms to my north will hit providing they don't decay.

But the 00z GFS is an upgrade on last nights 18z runs with the heat further west and thunderstorms too. At this range the plume and heat will move around run to run but hopefully not so much it ends up over the near continent. Currently the UK is still set for heat and huge thunderstorm potential. The high is not as robust to the east this morning which does mean the heat is pushed away by Sunday, but this is 9 days away and subject to change (as is the entire event). If things came off as per the latest GFS then most of the UK would feel the heat and be in with a chance of a storm or two, maybe severe Storm Porn anyone? Courtesy of NMM.

The heat does get in briefly on the 12z for Tues/Weds but it is brief and quickly washed away to the east by thunderstorms. However, I think peoples upset may be premature as it is a brief retreat before the heat builds back for the weekend. Remember though, this is one run of one model for something 5 days away - there will be changes. As I thought, Friday looks baking hot across most of the UK

Off topic but the odds on the UK highest ever temperature being beaten this year is 12/1. May be worth a flutter