Supacell

It's sorted If you click on the 3 dots to the right of your name then you can select edit and change the post. I thought you could hide it but I think its only mods that can do that.

Two high risks from Dan in 3 days, that must be the first time ever. I am not working today and the risk zone looks on my doorstep and so I will be out and about again. My initial target area is going to be Leicestershire/Warwickshire. I will probably use the A42/M42 for easy access southwest, traffic permitting of course. I'm going to have a lot of footage to edit at this rate!

Well... what a day. Saw plenty of storms through the Midlands. I'm still out (near to Stoke) and just about to head home but did better than yesterday I think. This despite being stuck in traffic for two motorway accidents. To be fair, the second accident killed my chase. I was worried the first had before it even started. After attempting to intercept a storm heading westwards towards Lutterworth, I ended up stuck in traffic on the M1. The storm passed over as I sat in congestion and it produced rain and the odd big flash of lightning/bang of thunder. I couldn't see much as i was trapped in the car surrounded by lorries, and I felt an overwhelming sense of dread that this was the end of my day. Luckily the traffic cleared and the storms hadn't moved far. I then chased what was a rapidly developing line of storms along the M6 towards Coventry and then M42 southbound around Birmingham, taking in Solihull, Redditch and then onto the M5 northbound (cue second accident) through Birmingham. The fact they were slow moving meant I could get out and film ahead of them a bit before jumping back in the car to get ahead again. However, by the time I was free of the second accident the storms were moving away. I tried to catch them up on the M6 but to no avail. That was OK, it was my way home anyway. Much like yesterday the rain was torrential, big huge raindrops and accompanied by gusty winds. The storm heading near to Solihull had some very lively winds ahead of it. Most of the lightning was high based flashing again, but there were quite a lot of flashes and occasionally there was a big IC or CG with a loud bang of thunder. Whilst driving, some of the thunder was very loud. All in all, im satisfied with today. It was still flashing occasionally over Stoke up until about 10 minutes ago but the main action is now over Shropshire. Heading home now to sleep, then going to be doing it all again tomorrow!

Sounds like a plan

Think I'll go for the Leicestershire storm. Its heading my way so not far to drive.

Currently near to Chelmsley Wood and have to decide. M6 towards Leicester or M40 towards Banbury

I may be wrong but I think there is a convergence zone running along the red line. Which is somewhat east of where shown on most of the models.

Sferics now south of London

Quick development on the recent satellite to the east of London. I am thinking that area may be the breeding ground.

What to do? My initial plan was to head in the direction of Worcestershire/Herefordshire. However, overnight runs from some models bring the risk almost to my doorstep and so the long drive may be unnecessary. However, there are more models showing storms over the SW Midlands (pretty much all of them from what I can see). I think I will wait to see where the first initiation occurs. If it's to the west of London (as per ECM/Arome) then I'll head southwest, if it's to the north or east of London (as per UKV) then I will stay more local or even at home. Edit: There is also the pull of overnight activity around the West Country. If I do the SW Midlands I could potentially catch these afterwards.

Back home now after todays chase. It was a day of mixed emotion. At around 5.30pm I found myself torn between tracking a cell that was moving over Oswestry and away from me or a storm that was moving up towards Telford and likely to hit me head on. The Oswestry cell was closer, but the Telford cell was moving towards and not away from me. I obviously decided to choose the one that was coming to me. But at the point when I committed to intercepting that cell, the storm over Oswestry went mental. Unfortunately there was not a lot I could do about it now, it was too far away. So I headed down to the village of Shawbury where I parked up with the view of a dark sky to the south and almost continuous quiet grumbles. As I was watching a flash of lightning occurred behind me. It was from a cell that had formed just behind me to my north, but was moving away from where I was. I decided to watch the cell to my south some more, a decision I would probably regret. As the Telford storm came closer it became apparent that it was now heading more north than northwest, and was missing me. The winds were really picking up and there were occasional close flashes and rumbles, but I decided to head northwest towards Whitchurch in the hope if getting properly into it. Unfortunately I now found myself behind it. I say unfortunate because the roads were flooded and it was hard to keep a pace. The traffic was moving slowly due to flooding and at one point I was stuck behind a tractor for what seemed like ages (but was probably 3 minutes). On radar it looked like the storm had grown into a huge cell with the northern part now moving into Chester as I was driving under the southern part of it near Whitchurch. I seemed to be under the storm according to the radar and the rainfall but the lightning seemed quite feint and so not sure if it was a distance away or just quite high in the clouds. The rain was immense though and was accompanied by a gusty wind which was blowing twigs off the trees onto my car. No wonder the roads were awash! I then ended up taking a wrong turn and whilst I thought I was heading north towards Chester I was heading west towards Wrexham and away from the storm. By the time I realised, the storms had pushed too far away and I never caught them back up. I put it down to being hot and bothered, it wasn't a cool day and I don't have aircon. Anyhow, I'll probably be doing it all again tomorrow. Not had chance to look at charts or forecasts for a few hours but if things haven't changed from earlier then the SW Midlands may be a good shout.

Near to Whitchurch and can hear distant thunder moving away. A shower passed over and turned thundery as it moved off. My eye is to the south on that cell passing to the west of Brum. I'm in its path, providing it doesn't fizzle.

Good luck. I suppose if it kicks off around Brum amd moves NNW then I may be in a decent position.

Now in Wem. Some strong echoes moving out of Telford but without lightning and lots of activity over the West Midlands. I may have to return a tad east. Then again. Maybe not

Currently just near to Audlem near the Shropshire/Cheshire border. Currently hot with lots of blue skies and little signs of instability yet. Very early yet though, think I have a few hours yet.

Hopefully they'll miss you and you and the lad can enjoy a warm, balmy evening . The risk does look much lower for our homelands so you should be ok. I have friends and family at Download who are hoping the storms miss there too. Our chances get higher later tomorrow and Monday.

Not often we see a high risk from Convective Weather. I will be heading north west into the high risk zone this afternoon.

An interesting few days coming up from a convective standpoint, especially when in relation to the dryness and calmness of the last 3-4 weeks. The interest starts today and runs right through to probably Tuesday of next week, so potentially 5 days of storm potential! I am thinking this thread is going to get quite busy. However, showers and storms do look very hit and miss and many places will stay dry, and with a return of dry weather after the convective potential, some places could end up going into a 5th week without rain. Overall, there looks to be daily build up of reasonable CAPE for intense thundery potential but shear is weak and the support for organised activity looks low. Even so, with the magnitude of CAPE available, any storms that do form have the potential to be briefly severe before they collapse, with a lot of lightning and gusty winds. The highest risk of impacts would appear to be from flooding where any storms occur as storms will be slow moving and, especially through Sunday and Monday, could train along convergence zones, allowing some places to pick up in excess of 50-70mm of rain. This falling onto hardened ground after the recent dry spell. I will attempt to go through the thundery potential over each of the next few days but remember this is just a forecast based on what the models I am looking at are currently showing. Even for tomorrow it is somewhat uncertain, by Monday it is just really a guideline currently. Today – 9th June Light showery rain is already affecting the far southwest of Cornwall and the Scilly Isles, but I would not be surprised if people underneath it are still relatively dry as most is probably evaporating. Some slightly more robust showers to the south of the Channel Islands but these are for now devoid of thunder. Individual pockets of rain are moving north-westwards as the area moves slowly north-eastwards. Through today areas of light showery rain from Ac-Cas cloud is likely to continue in the southwest, maybe pushing into South Wales later in the afternoon. By evening there may also be some flashes of lightning in the far southwest of Cornwall. It will be feeling much more humid in these areas with temperatures pushing into the mid to high twenties, especially where any sunshine is more prolonged. Overnight showers will become a little more widespread over the southwest and the West Country with the risk of thunderstorms, the thunder risk probably more likely across the far southwest of Cornwall. Elsewhere for today, it is a continuation of the theme we have become accustomed to, although cloud should break a little faster for eastern parts. Sunshine was already out here in Derbyshire by 8am, earlier than any of the past few days. Saturday – 10th June Showers, possibly with the odd flash of lightning, are likely to be affecting the Southwest of England through the morning. During the afternoon these scattered showers and thunderstorms push/expand north and west across the West Country, Wales and parts of the West Midlands/NW England, eventually into Northern Ireland and Western Scotland by evening. These storms will be slow moving and could produce a lot of rain leading to the risk of flooding. Temperatures in these regions will be around the mid to high twenties with high humidity, so it will feel very warm or hot. Storms continue across the far west of the UK into the first part of the night. Not all areas will see these showers and storms, they will be scattered in nature (and this will be the form horse across the entire 4-5 day period). I have highlighted this area in yellow on my map. To the east of this will be a tongue of hot, humid air bathed in sunshine allowing temperatures to rise into the high twenties, maybe even reaching or exceeding 30 degrees in a zone from London across the Midlands and into Northwest England. Here there will be a stronger cap in place, and it is quite plausible that storms will not develop, leaving the area dry. This more especially the further south and east one goes. However, if temperatures can exceed 27-28 degrees (which is quite likely) then a few isolated storms could break out and where they do they have the potential to be intense with frequent lightning, gusty winds and torrential rain. The caveat to this is if cloud from the system further west or running up from the south affects sunshine amounts and reduces the forecast daytime temperatures. If this happens then the cap will remain intact and thunderstorms will not break out in these areas. I have highlighted this area as orange on my map. There is some divergence between high resolution models with regards to activity in the orange box but good agreement on the risk of storms further west (yellow box). Sunday – 11th June It looks currently like storms will generally be more widespread than on Saturday. For the morning there will probably be some cloud and showers across Wales and the West Country with some pockets of rain but also some very warm and humid sunny spells. Areas further east will see sunshine and the heat building again from the word go. By early afternoon the first storms look likely to break out across Wales and the West Country and these could be intense with torrential rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds (I have highlighted this area yellow on my map). Further east scattered thunderstorms are likely to start breaking out through the afternoon. Currently the models are still not sure on where will be mostly affected but the central spine of the country, especially from north of London, through the Midlands and up towards the Pennines looking a good bet. These storms will be forming in an area of 1000-2000 j/kg of CAPE and so any that form could be very active with a lot of lightning. They may also form into a line along a north to south aligned convergence zone through the central part of the country and this will push slowly westwards through the West Midlands and North-west England. Storms may then rumble on into the night across Wales (this is the orange area on my map). Monday – 12th June By Monday is a great deal of uncertainty but it does look like Monday could possibly be the most widespread day of thunderstorms. The ECM model shows some particularly tasty storms across the entire western half of England, Wales and Northern Ireland but this zone could easily be further east or further west. The entire forecast could change with it being 3 days ahead and so I won't go into too much detail. By Tuesday it appears that the storm risk will be transferring westwards as drier, more stable air returns with maybe only Ireland at risk by this stage.

As we get to within the 48-72 hour time frame I am now starting to get quite excited about the prospect of getting out storm chasing again over this coming weekend.

Locking this thread now as we have a brand new thread for June here

Here is a brand new thread for all your UK storms and convective weather posts for June. We are going to be trialling a different method, with a storms thread for each month during the convective season to see how it goes. After a rather stormy first half to May the second half became very dry with some parts having now seen no rain at all for 3 weeks. In the near future there are no storms or rain on the horizon with dry weather guaranteed for at least the next 5 days. Longer range forecasts do point to the chance of more storms as we head towards mid June. Eventually the pattern we are in has to break and we'll have something to talk about in here again. So, carry on and let's hope for some convective weather for those who want it. Old thread here

The GFS 00z Op is once again one of the coolest members for a weeks time, as is the Control. It seems the Op wants to keep churning out the coldest option. Most seem to keep T850s around the same as we have now, maybe a little lower. Looks to me like a week of sunny, dry weather with temperatures in the low 20s following a cooler blip over this Sunday/Monday. Maybe reaching the mid 20s through the second half of next week for some western areas. That nagging and persistent easterly breeze keeping Eastern coasts cooler. These conditions quite likely persisting into the following week.

If I remember rightly it took until mid June for 25⁰c to be breached in 2013 after what was a very cool/cold spring. There was still snow patches remaining in the Peak District at the end of April. Then came a month of sunshine and heat before some awesome thunderstorms on the 22/23 July. There is still plenty of time for heat. I'm hoping from a personal point of view that I won't have to wait too much longer. For now it's not bad at all here, unbroken sunshine and temperatures in the high teens with a very light breeze.

Agree that this was a great storm. I was out all night between Winchester and Basingstoke watching and chasing it.

At first glance it could look like a funnel cloud but it's most likely just scud.