Frigid

Guess it all depends on the second half, if it's anything like 2011 then 17C is likely but if it's like 2015/2020/2022 then probably not. Still I feel like a 15C CET looks unlikely.

Maybe Don, this will be the year we can put the 'Warm September Mild Winter Enigma' to rest

Looks likely the warmth will continue into next week. ECM and GFS adamant the high stick around and pump SE winds. Horrid time for model watching, can't wait to see the first Greenland high and northerlies. Not saying it's going to happen, but the breakdown looks more like a blip than anything.

Last September was quite similar. IIRC the second half was as cold as the second half of September 2015.

Worst: January 2020. Wet and Mild. February 2019. The last week was not winter. March 2022. Boring April 2020. Warm and dry. May 2018. Warm June 2023. Warm July 2018. Very warm August 2022. Very warm Sep 2021. (soon to be 2023): Very warm. October 2022. Very mild. November 2022. Very mild. December 2018. Very mild. Conversely here's the best months post 2018: January 2021: cold and snowy February 2018: cold and of course the BFTE March 2018: cold and snowy April 2021: cold and frosty May 2021: cool June 2019: cool July 2020: comfortable August 2021: comfortable September 2020: cool October 2018: cool. Frosty end. November 2021: snowy end December 2022: Best December since 2010.

Imagine a September CET in the 18s... would be remarkable but also concerning. Keep in mind the suns strength at the middle of September is equivalent to the end of March.

Agreed, being born in 2003 I've hardly got any solid recollections of the colder winters from 2008-13. I can recall end of December 2009 being very snowy and my birthday in Dec 2010. But after that it's been pretty on and off. No sustained cold ever since, probably why I crave colder winters more than any other season. I do wish I was more awake in December 2010, one in a lifetime winters month..

Possibly high 17s, low 18s. This could be the December 2015 of Septembers.. Thankfully it's all in Fl. A rogue run. My mind is still set on a breakdown around next Monday/Tuesday.

My room got to 29C, cons of staying in an insulated attic. The opposite happens during winter. Last December it dipped to 13C.

This is honestly the worst case scenario for September. 10+ Days of 25C+ if the GFS 12z is correct.. What happened to our cool Septembers, even 2020 which was quite chilly had a warm spell in the middle of the month. Honestly hoping the second half sees an arctic blast pushing all the warmth to Iberia. Can't wait for those dark evenings and frosty mornings.. P.s to the warm lovers lurking in here, enjoy your week

High pressure in Summer High pressure in Winter Low pressure in Summer Low pressure in Winter

Cooled down nicely last night, a min of 10C. Was forecast to be 14.. Wouldn't mind this warm spell at all if nights are cool but Wednesday onwards looks stifling. Not fun.

It's more of a colloquial term, used mostly with friends. There's many slang words used hundreds of years ago that you'll never hear today, it's just human lexicon. Anyways, back on topic. It's too damn hot

If the second half is anything like 2011, then you could be too low

My CET looks laughingly low now, and that's after a modest uptick. I know it's only the 3rd but I genuinely believe the CET will be record breaking, perhaps higher than 2006. 20C by mid month, would require a freezing second half to bring it to average. September is looking more extreme than the June gone past, can't believe I'm saying that...

June: 4/10. Would've given it lower if it weren't for those thunderstorms. Some of the best I've seen. July: 8/10. Most comfortable July since 2012. August 6/10. Kinda boring, a bit like Aug 15. Overall 6/10. Nothing too exciting, June was possibly the worst I've ever endured and July was bliss. I've already made up my mind for September three days in..

Nov 1925 was pretty cold with a CET of 3.6 but I think you meant Nov 1915, which had an astonishing CET of 2.8C.. the anti-Nov 2015 . The winter that followed was exceptionally mild though, January had a vile CET of 7.6C... On topic, Sep 1919 looks fascinating.. from one extreme to another. Wouldn't mind something similar to happen this autumn.

Ahh if only the CET was 0.2C higher, would've been absolutely perfect. Still it's probably my best combined forecast I've ever submitted.

Had a check at the latest GFS run, it's not pretty at all. Has us at 5 days of 26+ which would only translate to 28/29.. what a horror show. Would've never expected it beat the spell in Sep 21. This is where the GFS was heading shown 6 days ago. A cool start to September. Where it is now.. I'm hoping the second half is the coldest on record, or something similar to 2015/2022.

Hoping for a frost fest in these upcoming months, mid September onwards. Predicting we see our first air frost at the end of October and our first ground frost sometime in December.

Nothing special, but it'd be the months you'd least expect. A 17C September would be more outrageous than a 17C June..

SLAP BANG! Greenland covered in heights, you love to see it. Coldest winter since 1963?.. I think we're due it Now, back to reality. Honestly a 2009/10 would be incredible, would follow the trend of a remarkably similar July-August period we've seen this year compared to 2009. Of course, gotta take these charts with a pinch of salt. That low could be a bit more south, but at this stage it's looking good.

Looks quite pleasant though, 20-23C and sunny would be great for September. Nights aren't warm as well, so will be very comfortable. Uppers look very warm, though temperatures aren't responding.. I suspect it could be a similar story to what happened in 1988.

errm.. 15.2C and 42mm..

I always think of this event when heat is forecasted in September, it's hard enough to get temps in the high 20s in September these days.. but 30?? Crazy stuff. Correct if wrong but I don't think Manchester has hit 30C in September since, I guess a similar story could've happened if the heatwave in October 2011 was a month earlier.