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Everything posted by Frigid
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Ah the end of Daylight Savings Time, an extra hour of sleep and the signal to a dark period of the year.. also model runs showing up an hour early . Personally, I enjoy waking up in the dark, watching the sunset on my commute, and the long nights. But everyone's different, so I understand why some may detest this period of the year.
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Quite a cold morning, totally unexpected. Dipped to 2C with fog still lingering.. almost feels like winter.
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Frigid replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If you're after a chilly start to November, the 6Z looks decent. Bit of snow too for northern areas. Max of 1C here, with snow would be a very notable cold spell for this early in the season. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Frigid replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Perhaps a chilly Halloween/Bonfire Night if the 6Z is anything to go by. Now when was the last time we had that.. -
We went from one of the best October days in 5 years to one of the worst. Utterly dreadful. It can only get better from here..
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Would make sense that most posts in a winter thread are looking for cold. Same in summer, but of course heat. It isn't a clear signal, but latest GLOSEA is going for a blocked Nov and Dec with mixed conditions later on. At this timeframe, they're usually accurate but it doesn't mean for certain.
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2023 CET - all 12 months above 1961-1990 average?
Frigid replied to WYorksWeather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Models are suggesting a blocked November, the latest met update also mention the chance of cold easterlies. Being the met are never bullish on cold till at a closer timeframe there could be a chance of it being the first month of the year to come under the 61-90 average. Last year, it was looking likely but of course December came in with a bang being the coldest since 2010.. though that was a mere coincidence. Could it happen again? -
October 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests
Frigid replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Judging from the GFS 6z, temperatures for the remaining third of the month look average at best but very wet. So suppressed maxes and higher mins most likely. With that in mind, I wouldn't be surprised if the CET comes in between 12.5-13C. Perhaps a chance it could be a bit below that which would be great for my CET prediction. Never would've thought I'd be remotely close with the first week setting records. So all in all, a very wet, very warm October. Shocker. -
First Ground and Air Frost Watch - Season 2023-24
Frigid replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Shap seems to be a cold spot, always see them pop up during cold spells. Impressively, they also recorded -8.4C in April 2021 and -5.8C in May 2021.. not sure if those are records but could well be. What a cold Spring that was. Only went down to 1C last night but we did get a frost on Sunday morning, with a temp of -0.8C. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Frigid replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
P12 really gets us in the freezer next week.. All JJF, but a fair few ens do go for another cold spell after the mild tick up. Been a while since we've seen a cool end to October. -
First Ground and Air Frost Watch - Season 2023-24
Frigid replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Dropped to 0.8C this morning, a nice covering of frost on everything. Not bad for this early in the season, especially with all the warmth we've been having. -
Stunning day. Gotta make the most of it as by next week it's rain and suffering. Hoodie season is back on I mean look at it.. cold and sunny. Keep it going till March! (with interspersed snow spells of course)
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Well all the blocking shown a few days ago has all but disappeared and we're now due a mild spell. Classic. Hopefully this isn't a sign for what's to come in winter.
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First Ground and Air Frost Watch - Season 2023-24
Frigid replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Loving the chill in the air, feels great walking out and seeing your breath in the air. After such an anomalously warm period, it's more than welcome. Autumn 2023, you started off as a stinker, time to redeem yourself
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First Ground and Air Frost Watch - Season 2023-24
Frigid replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Tonight's gonna be a cold one -
9C and lashing with rain. Feels very cold in the wind. This time last week was exceptionally mild, shows how quick our weather can switch on us.
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2023 took the meaning 'right synoptics at the wrong time of year', and amplified it to max. It's all been a mess tbh. Yes, these synoptics would be better appreciated if in Nov/Dec.
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Vile? That's possibly one of the best charts I've seen in October for a while. Though, it would be much better if it were to happen in November
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Not entirely. Winter 58/59 had a pretty cold January with a CET of 1.6C, but interestingly Winter 68/69 had a pretty cold February with a CET of 1.0C.. March was also pretty cold with CET's in the 3s. With the only two cases of Nov SSWs showing cold weather it's clear that if it were to happen again, then late cold wouldn't be out of the question
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Despite being very warm, the start of October has been very dull.. even duller than the first 12 days of Oct 2019. Today was a chilly one, but will be the highest sunshine total of the month so far.
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10C and sunny, not a cloud in the sky. Couldn't ask for more
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11C here, first day of the season that actually feels like Autumn. The chill in the air is quite notable given the record breaking September, and with models hinting a pressure change akin to deep winter.. it's almost like we've skipped a season.
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Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts
Frigid replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Interesting observation. Autumn 2016 also had a pretty chilly November, which is also being hinted in the models this year.