Frigid

This is very interesting... UK weather forecast - Met Office WEB.ARCHIVE.ORG Met Office 5-day weather forecast for UK, 15-day and 30-day forecast for the UK.

Quite depressing outside I'll admit, but at last it feels like Autumn. Could do better with clear skies instead of all this cloud.

Yep, unlike the July 2022 spell which was hinted at two weeks prior this one pretty much came out of nowhere. GFS runs from a week prior were actually going for a chilly start to September, crazy how all of that flipped.

Yeah, think I malfunctioned a bit whilst typing that. My bad

That reminds me of last year's World Cup, was during that cold December spell. Felt quite surreal at the time watching it whilst freezing.

Hope that high can edge its way to Greenland. Then you're talking

Could be, these tropical storms are really playing around with our climate. Could be blistering hot next week or freezing cold, who knows. Frankly, the models have no idea of such so I'm not too fussed on a single run.

You know what, I don't mind where this CET lands. Could be 18C for all I know. A bit like a Dec 2015 situation, interesting to see how high it'll be.

Wouldn't mind if the rest of autumn followed a similar path to 2016. The September that year was warm, but October was pleasant. November was a stunning month, with it's numerous frosts and picturesque foliage. The autumn that year was quite calm and delayed, so in November the leaves had the most vivid hues of red and orange. Absolutely perfect.. of course same can't be said about the following winter. I'd hate it if we saw another October 2019 though. Pretty much wiped all of the leaves so there was nothing left in November.

GFS 12z looks very cool, could see the CET dip below 16C if it all comes to fruition. Of course I expect a middle ground, 16C is definitely looking likely.

You know it's bad when some of the warm lovers find this spell uncomfortable. A spell to remember no doubt, for it's tropical-like humidity and prolonged nature. And it all came out of nowhere

I was out last night around 10pm in the city centre, honestly felt like I was in the med. Lingering heat with pitch black skies, and of course the humidity was stifling.

Makes me wonder what it was like during the heatwave in October 2011. Unprecedented heat, IIRC it got up to 27C here. Must've felt like a swamp.

Regarding the September heatwave thread, it's almost 50/50 of people wanting this to be over. Can see why, if it was a dry heat instead of this humid cesspool it would be miles pleasant. 20C dew points at any point in the year is horrible, let alone September. No respite in the night, most unpleasant week in September ever.

Wow, 13th onwards looks very chilly for September on the 12z.. could we get the coldest second half alongside the warmest first half.

You see that's what I wanted out of this spell, not high 20s and dew points that make you sweat like a pig.

Surprised how cloudy it is today, was expecting it to be 26/27C by now but it's only 23. Edinburgh is actually warmer at 25C. Still, it feels uncomfortable with those dew points.

From Summer to Winter, this September resembles 1906 if the GFS 18z is to be believed. A complete flip, with maxima in single digits. Shame it's two weeks away.

That reminds me, when NYC recorded 20C during Christmas Day in 2015. Think December that year had one too many.

Headcorn Aerodrome 29C at midnight. Probably a reading error.

Genuinely the worst spell of weather in September in my life, last night was stiflingly hot and the next few days look horrid. Thankfully, the heat will depart from Monday and this time next week will feel cold in comparison. GFS 12z has us in a very chilly second half of September. Hope it comes to fruition I'd say the cut off point is mid September, though we can still see anomalous warmth even in October, 2011 for instance.

Why though? Have a look at the seasonal models, majority of them are pinging to a blocked, cold winter. I know cold is unlikely but the signal is the strongest we've seen in many years.

You can even go as far back as 1795. Had a CET of 16.0 and the following winter was one of the mildest on record.

Probably cloud and cool/avg temperatures, SE winds can bring up cold from the continent though it depends how cool it is.