Frigid

11C here, first day of the season that actually feels like Autumn. The chill in the air is quite notable given the record breaking September, and with models hinting a pressure change akin to deep winter.. it's almost like we've skipped a season.

Interesting observation. Autumn 2016 also had a pretty chilly November, which is also being hinted in the models this year.

GFS 00z would obliterate the current CET I reckon, possibly going into the 11s. An outlier of course, but seen it's been a recurring theme within the models to go colder in the second half I wouldn't be surprised if it came off.

Looks like the cool temps today are north of Manchester, currently 12C and lashing with rain. Meanwhile it's 18C in Birmingham and 20C in the south. Could well be the last 20C we see until March/April.

Baby steps. Hopefully by November it goes for something similar to GLOSEA.

I'll take that!

A brilliant spell of Autumn weather during the weekend. Sunny and cool is two things I don't expect much in October, a seasonal week at last

Found them in the Winter's thread, credit to @Uncertainty

Meteo-France did go for a blocked November in its recent update.. If it were to happen with all that cold to the east, a significant cold spell in November could be a possibility .

Hello Autumn

According to BBC it's 20C and sunny right now.. currently 16C and cloudy

Finally, seasonal temperatures showing up. Could we see our first frost of the season this week?

Well that's lifted a few spirits.. Nov + Dec looks sensational, even February could have a cold spell or two by the looks of things. Certainly not giving up hope, until all models come at an agreement of sorts.

Winter 2020/21 gave us cold in all three months.. so imo it was very good for modern standards. I'd take it any day even though it was average, in contrast an average summer would put this forum in meltdown. Back in May/June, it was forecasted that July would be a hot month.. and what we got was the coolest, dullest, wettest July in many years. I wouldn't put too much credence in the seasonals atm, we need more than the ECM to build a solid consensus. Perhaps by November we'll have a better idea in the direction of Winter 23/24, hopefully it's nothing like 13/14.

I knew this would happen.

Today's GFS 12z has to be one of the best cold, wintry runs I've seen in October, will never happen but looks awesome.. Temperatures as well, incredibly low for October. From low to mid 20s on the 7th to low single digits a week later, GFS goes for a max of 4C on the 14th.. crazy stuff. The models have been playing around with this idea of a northerly in recent days, certainly not an outlier with the GFS control also going for a cold spell.

It is quite hilarious how this weekend will be warmer than any spell in July and August. 2023 is a weird one.

April 2021 has been mentioned many times, and it's not hard to see why. It was seriously cold by night, lowest record CET minimum in the entire series. It also had record breaking amounts of sunshine (223hrs).. just 10hrs less than April 2020. April 2021 was also drier than 2020, just 18.8mm fell.. and most of it was in snowfall. One of my most favourite months, up there with December 2010 and March 2013. September 2015 has been mentioned a few times, but I haven't seen anyone talk about Sep 2020. For here it was both drier and sunnier than 2015.. and was also quite cool. Second half was quite chilly with a few frosts near the end of the month.

And back we are with the northerly blast, GFS can't make up it's mind. Does look quite cold for the time of year.

Yup doesn't look all that impressive, max of 21C.. we saw that a couple of years ago. Still, I feel like these temps are probably undercooked.. we see it in every warm spell the temp is often not as stated.

A cold, frosty, sunny November would save this Autumn. Now imagine that!

This looks.. so bizarre. Fair play to September, if it's going to be warm.. might as well make it stand out. Same CET as the record breaking June, madness.

GFS 12z is a wild rollercoaster.. From this To this, a week later Fascinating stuff, October just like March can have wild swings in temperature.

You might be onto something there

April 2021 and September 2015 were the rare cases of it being cold but sunny, whilst not being in winter. Both months I enjoyed throughout..