Frigid

GFS 12z has produced possibly one of the most severe winter charts I've ever seen, this would rival the likes of 2010, 1987, 1979. On snow fields, those figures could easily dip below -20C.. fantastic run for cold.

Jan 2010, 2013, 2015, 2019 and 2021 all brought great snow events for here. 2010 was brutally cold. The 5th was incredibly snowy. The 7th saw lows around -15C and highs at -6C. After that, it pretty much stayed cold but not severely. 2013 was a pretty snowy, cold month with a two week spell of below average temperatures. 2015 was quite westerly but strangely had a lot of cold, frosty nights. The 29th saw a pretty major snow event from a north-westerly. 2019 was pretty chilly after a mild December, with a very cold final week. The 30th saw a great snow event, with accumulations totalling 5-10cm. 2021 saw many frosts and snow days, most notably the 20th and 23rd. The 20th started off very mild with morning temps around 10C, by the time it got to 9PM it rapidly dropped to 0C and with it came an intense snow event. 23rd was another pretty good event, with a few hours of continuous snowfall. If I was to rate these years it'd go like this. Best to worst 1. 2010 2. 2021 3. 2013 4. 2019 5. 2015

I took a few screenshots of some forecasts on the big day. This one, to this day still astonishes me.. the meto forecasting a low of 27C. I remember seeing that and thinking there is no way. How, an island known for cool wet summers see lows akin to Singapore. If that happened to occur, the mean for that day would be a jaw dropping 31.5C. Note that it went for 30C at midnight, something you'd expect in Dubai. Granted, it got down to 21C at the main stations but away from rural spots and into the city centre it had to be around 23-25C. Truly an exceptional spell of weather. Glad to experience it but honestly, I hope to never see it again.

Would be nice if we got a cool dry summer for once, with CETs ranging in the 13s for June, 15s in July and 14s in August. Obviously it won't happen as figures like them are as incredibly rare, but it would be interesting to see. For me, I experience daytime summer temps like this. 10-13C - Chilly 14-16C - Cool 17-21C - Pleasant 22-24C - Warm, but comfortable. 25-30C - Uncomfortable 30+C - Unbearable. Obviously, humidity can come into play. Say 20C 90% humidity < 24C 50% humidity. 19th July 2022 was scorching, but as the humidity was under 20% it didn't feel as bad as the heatwave in August 2020.

265 pages in a week, wow. This chase has been exhilarating with many highs and lows.. A great set of 12Zs after a dismal few runs which was to be expected. Still, with unfavourable synoptics the cold is still around which is a huge plus going forward. Main take away from tonight is all models coming to some sort of agreement, and they all lead to cold. Some of the best charts I've seen in a while, you'd almost mistake them as archive charts given how rare they are. Here's some of my favourites from tonight. No mention of the KMA.. look at that! A bitterly cold run throughout. JFF for now, but let's see how it progresses into week 3. Again, a great set of 12Z runs. There's definitely a theme, in which we see the best in the afternoon.

Quite close to their all time January low record. -22C max has to be a record though, incredible cold. We're not that far from Oslo so to see those temps so close to us is quite astonishing.

-10-15C uppers with slack winds.. Potentially -4C highs with widespread lows in minus double digits. From a low point to the coldest run we've seen this winter, it's astonishing to see how the 6z progressed. All JFF for now, but very encouraging to see repeated low points in the MO still produce a great end. I can't recall ever seeing these charts in January, truly fascinating.

We start at where December left off. Expect that to climb down over the next week.

I'll take it. Seriously, anything will be better than what we've seen in the past few weeks. A week of sunshine and frosts is more than welcome..

I just know someone's gonna mention 'west based NAO' What a run.. a far cry from what we saw yesterday.

Also that they were the warmest on record.. imagine having two months coldest on record in a single year.. crazy.

2023 is basically 2022 without the extremes. No extreme heat, no extreme cold. Incredible how the yearly CET is basically the same. I do wonder if we'll ever see a year in the 9s, an incredible feat these days. Thought 2021 could be the one, but of course the second half was mild. A 10-10.5C year will be decidedly cool from now on, given we've seen two 11C years back to back.

Let's hope Jan 2024 is better for sunshine, those figures are truly shocking.

This is turning out to be a rotten winter, as bad as Winter 15/16. Now all looks lost for January cold, GFS and ECM ensembles a massive downgrade.. I give up. Summer fans don't experience this amount of sorrow with every year guaranteeing at least one hot spell. It's actually trying for coldies in this country, even with good background signals it all collapses.. how. I was actually quite optimistic a few days back, but as the SSW signal failed to materialise it's all gone downhill. I hope we see a taste of winter next year, whether it be in January or March.

3.9C and 55mm. Thanks Going for a cooler January, similar to 2019 in where we see a milder period with one cold spell.

GFS 6Z was an extreme outlier, literally no other members following it's path. Though, its nice to see the mean somewhat resembling the EPS. Meanwhile the control run is on the opposite end of the spectrum, which follows EC 00z progression of building an omega block. Look how similar they are at T216. All in all, an excellent start to the day. EC finally producing a stonker run after days of deliberation. Look forward to the 12Zs

The -15C line covering all of France is mighty impressive. Bordeaux and Nice with colder uppers than much of Norway, crazy control run.

Second warmest is Dec 1934 with a CET of 8.1C.. goes to show how insane the Dec 2015 was. I think we'll make it at least in the top 15... the contrasts of this month to last year.

Using Dec 2015 Daily CET data from 1-7th and 28-31st, with Dec 2023 data from 8-27th you get a CET of 9.1C.. So 2nd mildest December on record. Why do I have a feeling that will materialise in the near future.. The 8-27th period this month had a freakishly mild CET of 9C.

I concur, what a disgrace of a December it's been. I knew we wouldn't get a particularly cold month, but for it to be 2C above average is obscene. The seasonals and LRFs were correct on this one.. December has been a mild, nondescript, incomprehensibly boring month with nothing of note. Down south have seen the worst of it all with almost no sunshine whatsoever. If the first week of this month was anything like 2015, it would almost be close in CET. Since the 7th it's been freakishly mild, notably the 18th-25th period. Just hoping January can save this already stinker of a winter, lashing with rain as I speak.. something needs to change.

But the last bit is quite significant, it ain't your average cold spell. Haven't seen the BBC monthly this bullish on a colder signal since Winter 20/21.

Quite reminiscent to Feb 2019's progression in the CET. It's been grim since the 5th with the odd cold night. Last 10 days have seen max temps above 10C. This month has pretty much been an inverse of last month. Strangely getting milder as the month progressed.

On the plus side, looks like the GEFS are flatlining at near -5C. And the supposed mild blip after New Years is eradicated, bar the OP's outlier and few others. ECM also removes this mild blip.. Definite upgrade from previous suites. This is what we had in yesterdays 12Zs. Mild after NY. A nice set of upgrades today, hope they continue.

Today was warmer than the 5th August this year.. let that sink in for a bit.

If the SSW pulls through, it could be a very interesting January. GFS 12Z showing what's possible and with a lot of GEFS CFS and ECM members going for a reversal in zonal winds it strengthens my opinion on January being colder than average. I'm getting a lot of 12/13 vibes from this winter, which had a December cold spell and later turning mild towards Christmas.