Frigid

Currently -4C. Coldest station in the UK according to XCWeather. Going to be a cold, cold night..

Roads are treacherous. Visibility is low. Got down to -5C, which would make it the coldest November night since 2010.

Foggy morning for us. Low of -5C.. coldest November temp since 2010.

A despondent mood in here tonight, but I'd say a much better set of runs than what we saw this morning. No raging southerly, no euro high. I see potential. GFS obviously the pick of the bunch, but as it's an extreme outlier I think we can sit back on it.. hopefully it sniffs out something like last time and give us something special.

No Dec 2010, but also no 2015. Coldest first week of December since 2010 on the cards, what an excellent start to the winter.. even if there's no snow.

Great read tonight guys, can't keep up ECM 12z is perfect for prolonging any cold, and to not see a breakdown around the 5/6th. Much prefer the slack flow opposed to a deepening low. Bit imby but we don't benefit much from them anyways and it would allow for homegrown cold to entrench. Also it'd mean a lesser chance of it pulling warm Atlantic winds with it.. high risk high reward type event. But of course, for people south of the M4 it's a perfect scenario. I'll just leave this here.. chart of the week.

Indeed. ECM once again producing great 12z charts.. not too dissimilar to what we saw on Friday with the Atlantic to a standstill. Hopefully they're onto something here

Back to the regionals it is! Noticed MAN airport is at -2C, with clear skies and light winds could it see its coldest November temperature since 2010..

Black Friday special!! Better than anything we've seen thus far, wasn't expecting that at all. Atlantic is dead

The prominent low shown yesterday really was a high risk high reward setup, and as was seen in the 18Z GFS run could lead to something nasty. The morning runs have resolved that somewhat, allowing for a more slack low eastwards which would allow for colder temperatures. This is what we want , all great charts. This is NOT what we want. I wouldn't really focus on upper temps atm, great example would be last year. The 15th Dec has uppers around -3-5C but the 2m temperature here were around -10C. Granted, the cold intensified given it set up a week prior but a quick look at the GFS/ECM ensembles show that it's quite feasible to occur again. Basically, the finer details are for T0-T48, or when in range for the UKV.. And as for the ensembles, when was the last time you saw that going into winter.

Those are the morning runs, UKM 12z looks much better. ECM could follow, or be a mess.. we shall see

The GFS ens are only trending colder with each run.. a good sign it has to be said. 18Z 00z 06z

Hey at least it's not raining

Excellent spell of autumn weather this has been, unbroken sunshine today with temperatures rapidly plummeting after dusk. Much better than the incessant rain we had few days ago. Shame it's not going to last, next week looks like a washout.

Reached a max of 8C on the 4th and 9th, definitely feels like winter now.. this time last month it was 20C+

Its rained here every day since the start of November, a truly dire start to the month. Next few days look great though, gotta make the most of it until the next eternal deluge.

November 2010, 2016 and 2021 all had spells I enjoyed. Nov 2010, well.. what's more to say. 2016 was a chilly, and at times quite sunny month. Can vividly remember waking up to a frosty morning on the 8th. Through to the 12-19th it was quite wet but saw some flurries around the 18th. The final 10 days was what I can describe as bitterly cold and frosty. Nov 2021 was quite forgetful, though it did contain a pretty good snow event courtesy to Storm Arwen. It was the last time we'd see snow until December 2022. Snow cover is quite rare in November, the last time it happened was in 2021, and then 2010.

True, we have to go back to 2018 to find a February remotely cold.. since then it's been akin to a typical March. April 2021 was cooler than Feb 2019/2020/2022/2023 which is absurd.

To sum it up, the next 10 days looks dire. What does it take to get a full week of no rain, no cloud and chilly days in November.. can't remember the last time if ever. A huge anticyclone over us would do it, but honestly anything other than incessant rain works.

How accurate was the November CANSIPS data last year for Winter 22/23.. Did it sniff out the cold spell in December?

I was referring to my location. Apologies for being unclear.

Watch out for the falling iguanas

More impressively, is that it came right after a record breaking mild Oct-Nov. IIRC, models around the 17th Dec hinted at another cold plunge at months end which could've landed the month as one of the coldest on record. 2022 was a year of extremes.. 38C and -10C all in the same year.

It has been an awful month. Surprised how it beat 2000 and 2020, those are up there with some of the wettest on record. On the upside, looks like I was bang on with the CET .. same can't be said for the EWP. Seems like every October recently has been incredibly wet. Last time we had an October EWP under 100mm was back in 2018.

Miracles can happen