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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes Gavin it looks like we are going to see a strengthening of the Icelandic low (s) and the Azores high in the run up to and including mid month leading to a broadly westerly flow but then hopefully the GloSea5 blocking will show itself in the model output later in the month and take us into a potentially colder December, I have to say, given how ridiculously warm and wet last December was and given the expected background signals, I would at the very least expect something resembling early winter.! -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I just checked the Gem 00z and its very similar to the Ecm 00z & Gfs 6z in the 9/10 day range with high pressure building in from the southwest across southern uk bringing fine and pleasantly mild conditions. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GEFS 6z mean shows our incoming colder spell giving way to more of a milder atlantic regime from around next midweek onwards and its then all about the ebb and flow of the Azores high and low pressure to the northwest / north. The Azores ridge builds in at times but it's mainly beneficial to the south of the uk, so some fine pleasant conditions further south although still changeable but it's the north which is more exposed to the most unsettled conditions generally. From mid month there is a shift to more widespread unsettled weather from the northwest with an atlantic ridge developing so the second half of November shows potential for increasing polar / arctic maritime incursions. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Press AVG button -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Give me GloSea5 over the cfs v2 any day! -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just to show I'm not just a member of the snow and cold rampers association, the Ecm 00z looks quite pleasant later in the run, at least across the south of the uk as high pressure builds in from the southwest along with tropical maritime air. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don't know if anyone has shown the Ecm 00z for this weekend and early next week so here goes, some nice shades of blue! -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Absolutely Ravelin, in the meantime I'm going to enjoy the northerly chill the models are showing, nothing can stop that! -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is true, the outlook beyond the cold spell is uncertain..+ its only the 00z, there is a full day of twists and turns ahead of us. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Fully agree, however, in my experience the models could improve through today and by 12z coldies will be happier. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If the models keep trending colder, I will enjoy the ride. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm sure it was a tongue in cheek comment, as for the latest models, there are encouraging signs that the upcoming cold will not be brushed aside next week as earlier runs suggested. Hope tomorrow brings more good news. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed, progressively less progressive as far as the atlantic is concerned, fingers crossed for further upgrades to the longevity of cold on tomorrow's runs! -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes it's something I alluded to above regarding the change in the Ecm 12z ensemble mean compared to the 00z earlier, hope it keeps changing for the better / colder! -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
To my untrained eyes the Ecm 12z ens mean isn't looking as progressive as earlier, certainly not as far as the Azores ridge is concerned which looks more suppressed..I think it's backtracking towards what the 12z op shows..which is very good news in terms of extending the cold!..baby steps in the right direction and hopefully the 00z will continue the backtrack! -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GEFS 12z mean looks interesting for coldies during the second half of November with indications of further Arctic outbreaks. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I understand GloSea5 is indicating increasingly blocked conditions later in Nov and wouldn't it be amazing if we had another 2010 Nov / Dec freeze! -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes Pete it's looking more wintry than anything we saw last November and December for that matter..bog standard indeed -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cold all next week according to the Ecm 12z with widespread frosts and crisp days, even some wintry showers in the east..and its still autumn No mild! -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wow this is impressive from the Ecm 12z...wot atlantic breakdown!.. look east Next week looks colddd -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Actually the Ecm 00z operational ties in more with the experts latest thoughts with colder & drier conditions more likely to continue further east / south-east than the atlantic mobility shown on the GEFS mean beyond next midweek..The Ecm is actually more bullish about cold weather persisting across the whole of the uk compared to the MO which is more of a halfway house with slightly milder air making it into the w / nw. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes Barry the Ecm operational looks great, we just want to see a flip back to colder from the ensembles, especially the GEFS..when I say we I just mean my fellow coldies -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GEFS 6z mean shows a trend to milder (more average) beyond next midweek with ebb and flow of the Azores high vs lower heights to the nw / n / ne and for a while the Az High (ridging) has the best of it although it still looks changeable with the most unsettled weather across the north and the best of the fine weather further s / sw but later the high is forced further southwest and it's low pressure to the northwest which takes over and slowly pushes eastwards with an increasing chance of polar / arctic maritime incursions beyond mid month. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That is certainly what the GEFS 00z mean indicates with ebb and flow of the Azores high and lower heights to the nw / n / ne.