Costa Del Fal

This is the problem. It turns cold enough but too cold for ppn away from coasts. Boring outlook tbh.

Yep latest GFS is ditching Friday's snow now. Looks like a boring cold dry week ahead then but I am glad for the flood hit areas. Just don't like cold that has no reward for it really.

Reports of sleet in the Mendip hills in Somerset.

Yes, a couple of brief flurries past by last winter didnt it. Remember last February I think it was, we had snow for about an hour in Penryn and did settle on some surfaces. Did not settle closer to sea level in Falmouth though. Think they came from a cold WNW/NW flow. The beast from the easterly quadrant is always tricky business as the battle line always seems to hang around the Cornwall through to Ireland sector.

Also would just like to add its interesting a few Hi res models like the NMM send a small area of heavy PPN right through Worcestershire/Black Country/Staffs way around dawn in the morning. HIRLAM is even more optimistic with a nice snowy surprise for the W Mids region in the morning though is probably quite too optimistic but still. Moreover, this looks to coincide with an area of light wind speeds, thus allowing for evaporative cooling perhaps? Might just be heavy enough to allow a wintry mix for some. Chance of pure snow low for the vast majority I reckon and a covering even lower. Maybe a 20% chance of a little wintry mix in the aforementioned areas around 5-7am? Enough to have a look out for maybe.

Hello all, been a while since I last posted. Hope you are well. Maybe a little sleetiness possible tonight, i.e shropshire hills, Malvern Hills, Black Mountains and Brecons, maybe even higher parts of the Black Country. Us lot in the Midlands could be in one of the best places this week for some more organised snowfall this week, or rain... at least here in the southern half of the UK. Going to be more ups and downs in the models this coming week. Been exhausting to watch so far! Still, I have not seen any proper snow for about 3 years now. Had a brief snow shower back in that brief November cold shot and a short snow shower in Cornwall last winter. Didn't really get to see the goods of March 2013 either, or Jan 2013 for that matter having been residing in the land of the woodshed and daffodills. Saying that, our daffodills are currently shooting through the ground well here!

Definitely noticing the evenings drawing out now too somewhat. the vice is untightening!

And the good news is that from here on in, mornings will be getting lighter too so the change finally happening 'both ways' now. Only one way from here and it's upwards! Mmmm I can smell that BBQ right now...

Absolutely, I fully understand how much colder larger continental masses can be. However when you imagine it snowing in morroco from our part ofnthenwirodnitnsounds pretty mad doesn't it anyway!

That snow is the equivalent south as Morocco. Ridiculous! Yet it's so hard to get snow here whilst the UK remains stuck in no mans land as usual.

4.7c please.

Absolutely Nick. I certainly don't want to proclaim the strat as our God either. However it cannot be denied its increasing importance. Always good to know about it to apply judgement when assessing the troposphere too.

I don't mean to be off topic here but rather make a brief albeit important point. Whilst the start of January is subject to much more change, not long ago it was said the models are so predictable now and that much fun has been taken out of model watching compared to a few years ago. Well just a few days ago who would have thought we would be looking at a shot of cold weather (not saying guranteed at all) and snow? To some, the whole long wave pattern was secured until mid Jan it seemed. How quick things can change and a vital point to always remember. Anything is always possible pretty much. It's always important to make an holistic assessment of the situation and forecast, by which I mean always take consideration of both the tropospheric and stratospheric forecasts, in particular good to see and remember how the stratosphere is playing out longer term. I certainly recommend all members take a chance to learn about the stratosphere of they can. In summary, it seems like we have found the fun (and stress!!!) in model watching again!

If ever the there was a north south weather line this chart pretty much defines it. The south (south of about Manchester) relishing the milder air and the much cooler weather always north of here and always staying there.

I'm afraid I can't be excited by this afternoons and evenings output. The general trend is for the real cold air to stay over towards central and Eastern Europe and an awful lot relies on lows and energy undercutting the high. The vortex looks to remain exceptionally strong to our northwest and the above ECM chart just shows how the uk is set to be in the worst position for out latitude as usual - cold air advancing from the west but generally modifying and fizzling into nothing and then the cold air from the east never really making it. Cooler is probably almost a certainty as we go into January. Snowy? Quite a low chance as it stands. Only saving grace IMO is that despite the sub -5 850hpa never really making it to us, even just a negatively tilted trough (and associated winds east of south) might just being in the low enough dewpoints to help us out. All exceptionally marginal and I remain unconvinced. I don't think the models are at all as good as last night overall ok afraid. Don't want to dampen spirits here but i think realism is key here. Close but no cigar currently is my summary in a nutshell. Not at all saying this is how will play out mind. Can only hope the Atlantic is being overdone although some very stormy charts of late prove an active Atlantic is certainly still possible going forward. The block needs to edge west by some distance IMO. edit: looks like the latter stages of the ECM might try and prove me wrong a bit but all still very knife edge IMO.

Personally I think anything is pretty mic possible in this world. Often things come in groups, then doesn't happen for a while or is sporadic then comes in groups again. In terms of extensive recorded data, we still really don't know a lot to make firm judgements on the future given the massive past before.

Same thoughts here. Cannot remember the last wet Christmas Day at all. Years and years ago!!! i don't mind it though. Gives an excuse to have the Christmas lights shining all day.

Merry Christmas to fellow posters in the south west. Have a great day.

Time to open the spring thread I think. Lol. Far more similarities to that season than winter right now wrt to temps and natures reawakening!

Laserguy would have!

Here we go folks. Back on the road to longer daylight hours and good times.

Nature at her best? Everything is muddy, flora looks dead and is bare and the sun is just blinding when driving. How is nature now at its best?

I'm feeling warm just looking at that image. Oh please hurry up summer!

But isn't this warmth largely a result of a very strong El Niño driving the pattern and over riding other signals - hence the persistent euro high. As to the impact on El Niño from climate change, the science leaves very mixed opinions on that especially in our part of the world.