Costa Del Fal

Pretty remarkable in just 5 years we have one of the coldest ever Decembers to one of the warmest if not the warmest. Pretty much anything really is possible in this world. Amazing stuff.

My is it warm! 13c currently outside. Had the windows down on the car a bit earlier. Also had a fly in the kitchen earlier. Seeing more plants beginning to flower too. Staggering persistence to this spell. Shame it's impossible in the summer. We would be enduring a massive heatwave but watch the opposite occur as usual and hence why our seasons are now so boring.

Laserguy would cherish every second of the day's shortening so nothing to stop us enjoying the reverse process.

I think December here hasn't been too bad so far. Yes a few dull wet days but actually an OK amount of sunshine here at least. No sign of winter yet. In fact the next week could see 14-16c reached so we won't be a million miles off the canaries!

Quite possibly the easiest forecast for this range they have ever made imo!

Lucky northerners. Spring here in the south west portion of the country at 13c with a number of plants re flowering here!

Much easier for you lot in the north. Manchester southwards always finds it so much harder in this set up.

As I expected, nothing of note for the Peak District. Mild here. Classic north south winter split today. Balmy here in the south once again.

DWD Model here: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php

Cheers Nick. In short for now, no surprise to see such zonality and low arctic height profiles with the strat at 30hPa well below normal temperature wise for this stage of the season!

Hi Nick, I am looking to improve my knowledge and understanding of the stratosphere and the forecasting tools available for this. Could you pass on the sources you use, especially in terms of wave forecasts as you mention above? Cheers.

Yep the end of darkening evenings is pretty much here. A lot of evenings since the start of this month have been rather bright too so it hasnt been too bad.

Don't mean to be pedantic here and instead helpful for learning but not sure your use of the term latent heat is correct in this sense here. Latent heat as I know it refers to the heat absorbed or released in a change of phase such as solid to liquid. Here is a useful link: http://www.britannica.com/science/latent-heat as I understand it, it is the SST pattern under El Niño which drives a lot of the patterns we see. The science reveals very conflicting opinions on its influence over Europe. We are one of the furthers at from the Pacific where El Niños heart lies which doesn't help. Though the heat from the ocean is thought to help push the jet stream north especially over America. Typically a northerly jet seems to be flatter. When it's on a southerly track we often tend to see it amplified and more messy and when we get our better cold spells. Hence a more northerly jet (theoretically at least) over America means I'm not surprised downstream we see something similar generally and hence giving room for pressure to stay higher than normal to our south thus allowing the euro high to thrive essentially! This is how I see things without writing an essay on it but the science like on lots of things certainly conflicts and there isn't really a right or wrong view/answer IMO.

Indeed yes. But that pattern change is firmly stuck at 240 plus. Unless your high up in the Pennines or highlands there is nearly zero chance of snow. Fact. Things such as tentative signs of change. Cmon, we all need to be real here and face the facts. Until patterns start coming out of 240 and closer there is on the ECM at least, no signs of change. That euro slug has the tendency to uograde closer to the time this pushing the jet further north and subsequently its associated low pressures. But for a strong El Niño I'm not surprised at how this season is panning out so far. Not sure why some seem perplexed - maybe it was the media hype dished out by the usual tabloids earlier this year. This is not aimed at anyone specific here but a general observation.

But that signal for change is always at the end of the run!! If I had money for every time the ECM 240 was said to hold promise I would be rich! Sorry but it was around now a proper cold spell was due early in December, then it was about the 17th, then about Christmas Day, now it's quite possible it will be 2016 before the pattern truly shifts.

Christmas Day in shorts a potential possibility? Who needs australian Christmas!

Yes a lot sunnier here so far. Seems west is best right now.

You didn't get below 10c Max during that cold spell around the 19th November?

Hate to 'rain' on your parade but worth noting Ian F had mentioned the Euro4 has problems in over doing the snow signal generally.

Think snow is pretty unlikely. Not worth shouting about. Rain is more of real concern IMO.

No amount of rain is ever worth getting excited about for the potential flood damage it can do.

A little bit ignorant don't we think? The rainfall will likely be causing further major flooding. That will rightfully make headlines more than snow IMO. Sorry to rant. needless to say the models painting a worrying amount especially for north wales. The boundary of warm And cold surreally over the uk arm. Still time for shifts north or south though.

Yep saw a butterfly here the other day too.

A couple of showers but otherwise a fairly sunny day. Not too bad sunshine wise for December so far. Doubt it will last though. Lol. Yesterday was the warmest December 7th ever.

60 mph plus is strong though tonight certainly isn't too bad. Do you have double glazing? In terms of photography how about capturing nature by which I mean birds, squirrels, marine life if possible etc. Flora and fauna exists all year round in some shape or form. There's more to our world than just the weather. I see loads on my daily walk. Saw a couple of robins too today.