damianslaw

Perhaps not, but notable the number of cold Novembers followed by relatively mild or mild winters.. especially December - 2013, 2016 and 2019 especially so. The saying if November ice bears a duck, winter will be full of muck..

Too much divergence between ECM and GFS this eve. Both doing what they often do, GFS progressive, atlantic moves in early next week, repeated polar NW flow, cold and unsettled. ECM maintains the blocked theme. I'm none the wiser why so much variability.

2013, 16, 19.. all followed by very mild winters... perhaps just as well this one looks ending mild.. 2009 great case in point. 2010 very cold but like 96, cold relented mid Jan. 85 cold, Dec very mild, 93 cold.. Dec mild in south at least.. Better correlation with warm Octobers and cold or coldish ends to the year, 1968, 1978, 1995, 2001, 2005...

Yes direction of travel from NW as move through mid month, thereafter every chance of something colder with ridge to west/nw, far more likely than an easterly, in Nov very hard to achieve.

Sign for lots of polar air injected into airstream second half Nov.. which would increase snow risk on high in north, all quite normal.

Yes November in a nutshell.

Yes I am saying keep an eye on position and strength of high pressure forecast to move to our NE in a week's time. A robust pressure build will enable cold pooling, and the atlantic could struggle to make inroads into scandi, this is evidenced by GFS 6z showing a negatively aligned trough. Indeed trough disruption, cold and cyclonic could be end result before heights to the west, north west or north take over. I said it will be a long week in here.. as the models won't handle the heights to NE well.. coukd well be a good time to take a break from model watching for a week, and see how the line of travel most likely lies.

Very uninspiring day, early- mid Nov renowned for being so..

Unfortunately there is little colour left here, trees stripped bare, mind many flowers still about including geranium.

I said yesterday felt very much a drab Sunday in November. Today very much a Monday morning in November, dull, grey skies leaden with rain, oh joy! This time of year generally least appealing time of year weatherwise. Generally its a tough time of year phsychologically for everyone. Early Jan more so, but early- mid Nov next.

Just seems in past decade only place in northern hemisphere doesn't see any anomalous cold is Europe. Also lots of cold air ejected into mid atlantic at times which does us no favour. The persistant azores high- euro high to our south seems to have become a permanent feature nowadays, displaced further north, always wanting to head north, and keeping jet to the north and locking cold over Pole, never ending cycle..

As others have said, the talk of 'blocked' conditions from mid November, now seem questionable, but too early to dismiss any chance of something settled verifying at some point before month end. I can see a path to heights to the west setting up in around 2 weeks time, heights to the NE will block the atlantic moving east, and instead we see low pressure sit to our NW, but importantly jet forecast to shift south kicking azores high west, if heights to the NE dont sink south, this jet pattern would in time send low pressure through UK and drop SE, heights can then build in behind to the west. I said keep eye on position of heights to NE, models notoriously struggle with such features and underestimate strength, the PV is quite weak still.

Long way to go yet.

Spent afternoon in Manchester, thoroughly wet until about half 3. Not the best of days.

Yes 1992 was cold and frosty and very foggy, but not snowy. It was seasonal at least. 1985 turned cold and wintry Boxing Day, think we had some snow and stayed cold until New Year. However, after 1981 the next christmas day with snow on the ground was 1993.

Has that distinct November Sunday feel to things today.. uninspiring.

Think an early winter moan thread is needed, this one is fast becoming it!..

Its November, probably most consistently unsettled atlantic dr8ven month of the year.. settled cold ones are rare. To be expected as you say.

ECM moving more and more in line with GFS, the high pressure moving in on the scene Thursday with its accompanying very mild SW fetch looking increasingly short lived, 4 days top, atlantic breaks through on 14th, but with strong heights to the NE, it looks like the jet will align NW-SE, trough funnelled between azores high displaced west and heights to NE, increasingly colder and cyclonic outlook, with opportunity for a ridge to build to west in time is how second half Nov could well play out. Keep an eye on position of heights as they orientate to the NE by end of coming week, if these stay in situ, the colder cyclonic outlook highly probable, if sink further south then perhaps just a general westerly flow before heights build to west. These developments a week away, until then, sit back I think, because the models won't be good at foreseeing just where heights end up, until very very near timeframe. Quite a frustrating few days of model watching I expect with GFS playing around with where to place trough and low heights, post 14th, but expect it to maintain an unsettled theme and displaced azores high, with NW and northerly airstreams late Nov.

Sods law it will break... recessions/ hard economic times and cold winters exception of 73-74 are a recent strong combo.. 78-79, 81-82, 84-85 - miners strike, 90-91 housing crash, 08- 10.....

negative or neutral I suspect.

Wouldn't call it a straw, its the most probable pathway, atlantic will move back in mid month, become progressively colder with strong ridge to west.

Dropped to 5.6 degrees, much colder than all forecasts for tonight.

Good selection of songs, Seal and Nomad stand out for me from that time. Seal more January though. Jan 87 spell I remember. I was 8. Not as well as Feb 91. Both spells quite similiar here, we escaped any appreciable snow, sheltered by Pennines. Jan 87 was colder. Feb 91 I remember the 8th being snowy, and a bit more during half term week, but only a couple of inches on ground, didn't cause many problems.

-4 coldest so far.. correct if wrong..