damianslaw

Looking a notably wet period ahead... October most of the time is a washout.

October is statistically our wettest month. Months like 1995 are quite the exception.

October 95 was a great month for Autumn colour seem to remember, very benign throughout and very mild. After a run of chilly and/or wet Octobers it was very welcomed.

Yes could be another switcharound month, in first half September low pressure was to the SW and we pulled in a warm S/SE flow, this time low pressure is to the NW and we have a mild SW/ W flow.

Ive noted the media saying in for a cold winter.. do they know something we don't.. its misleading and panic scaring language.. seems to be referenced in context people will not put there heating on, which is not the same as a weather forecast.

Met Office going for colder conditions late October and settled. Quite a sudden change.. bring in the mid atlantic high ridging north..

Fast losing light now.. on overcast days such as today, curtains firmly need drawing by 7pm. In 4 weeks it will be half 4!

Yes this appears to be the direction of travel as we head into the middle of the month. A westerly/south westerly airfliw to begin, bringing mild and wet conditions especially further north west. Gradually the azores high pulls west and we exchange the flow to a colder more settled NW, possibly northerly flow by mid month.

Oh joy the dreaded SW airstream in full excelsis! Destest it! Current temp 14.8 degrees, probably the low tonight.. Incessant rain or drizzle, cloud covering valley bottoms, never see the Lake District brochures show such conditions, but alas plague these parts far far far too often.

I think June 2006 to May 2007 is still the warmest 12 month period on record.

2006 was perhaps the most delayed Autumn I've known. The last good Autumn for colour was 2018. It varies each year.

Winter 10-11 repeat perhaps!

Noting good leaf colour change at present. However, we've yet to have a good frost, and generally the best colours come after one, provided the wind doesn't blow the leaves off beforehand. As a general observation much vegetation is in quite a stressed state due to the very dry summer, and leaves looked quite shrivelled and lacklustre through much of August. I wouldn't say we have quite reached the point in which Autumn rushes away with itself, the next week looks mild and no frost. Normally its around mid October when that rush sets in... mid Oct to mid Nov is a period of great change in the countryside.. akin to mid April to mid May when everything bursts into life. That first day that struggles to make double figures even when sunny normally for me marks that change, and nowadays often takes until mid October. The foreseeable looks like delivering 12-16 degree maxes..

High pressure to the east, with an atlantic trough digging through the UK and high pressure to the west - all quite possible, which would result in a cold wet winter here, snow and rain..

Another very decent day for early October, mild, benign, dry, not much sun, but quite bright, and little wind. October has started off very kind in the Lake District, but all is about to change, a generally very unsettled windy and wet period ahead.. oh joy!

Oh joy that made for poor viewing if you like snow. Mind 6 out of last 9 winters as I've mentioned have been abysmal for snow.. so we are used to it! Why is la nina hanging around so long!

A classic NW- SE type divide spell, wettest further NW, driest further SE. There is a frontal feature developing a wave Tues into Wed with SW Scotland, NW England and NW Wales name on it. These features are very common said parts, the type that easily deliver 100mm on the fells and give rise to local flooding. On occasion such as Nov 09 and Dec 15, exceptional rain. Alas its a text book long draw unsettled SW airstream. Not the type I enjoy at all, but thankfully we haven't seen much of this year.

Reality is an exceptionally mild winter, lets say many weeks with maxes between 7 and 10 degrees won't result in homes warming up to comfortable levels at all. Often mild is combined with dull and wet. Today my flat now is 16.7 degrees, ive had no heating on, outdoor temp is 13.8 degrees. A very mild winter will temper things but only a bit.

I've noted before how cold winters have coincided with harder economic times.. just a coincidence I think but notable: 78-79, 81-82 came at times of economic woe, also winters 84-85 time of strife - miners strike, when the ecomomy boosted late 80s winters were mild, then recession and oh look winter 90-91 popped up, then the ecomomy gradually improved by late 90s mild winters, this held through until next crash in 08-09 oh look winters became cold, slump up until 2013 and then look winters became mild... the depths of pandemic came same time chillier winter 20-21... how all uncanny!

Not a bad day overall. A few fleeting showers early on, and blustery, but predominantly dry with some sunny breaks. Tomorrow set to be quite decent as well. A useable weekend.

Just hope we don't see our biggest snowfall in November this coming season, as happened last year. Last winter another shocker for snow fall along the dismal likes of 13-14, 15-16, 16-17, 18-19, 19-20. 6 out of last 9 have been abysmal amongst most snowless ever.

Models all painting a very typical outlook for the time of year. A broadly westerly flow with the atlantic in full ascendancy. Frontal features with oomph moving through the UK, giving copious rainfall for the NW in particular. Weak ridge development shown for next weekend, and then signal for more of a flow from between north and west longer term as the azores high ridges further west and north which will turn things colder after a relatively mild start to the month. GFS and ECM would very likely produce first widespread ground frost overnight 9th into 10th, all a long way off. If you like autumnal unsettled conditions the outlook will suit you fine.

From a health perspective, WHO recommend indoor temps should not drop below 18 degrees. Lots of guidance states 17 degrees absolute min. If it drops to 16 degrees this is not healthy. Whilst some may cope with 13 degrees etc, this is not good for health.. yes I remember ice in the windows etc, but also remember how uncomfortable it was.

Whilst comfortably over the 61-90 average which is fast becoming very out of date to compare mean against, why officially still use it I don't know, Sept 2022 was bang on the 01-20 average, and only 0.4 degrees above the 81-10 average, which perhaps should become the mean we measure against. Therefore a very near average month. Anyone know why 61-90 still used? When did 41-70 stop being used in 1990? or 2000? Either way its more than 30 years since 1990.

Yes power of the sun on the wane now.. still has a bit of warmth in it, but in about 3 weeks time especially in the north its strength becomes weak. Once October arrives I resign myself to 5 months of non- sitting outside on the garden terrace. With heating, not so, or when resting as part of a walk wrapped up, but general sitting out, well that's it until Spring.