damianslaw
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Everything posted by damianslaw
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
damianslaw replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agree, it looks more cyclonic than zonal. -
An autumnal start. After the heavy rain of yesterday there is much dampness and wet in the atmosphere, clear skies during the night and a polar airstream have combined to provide ideal conditions for mist to form. Chilly clear blue sky start to the day. Can we say Autumn has officially started? Yes we can!
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My calandar states its Autumn tomorrow. A cold northerly forecast early in the new year, quite likely to bring snowfall to highest scottish hills. Nothing too unusual about that. The Lakeland fells typically have to wait until late October for their first dusting. Use this thread to post snow level lines, depths on our mountains.
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September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Summer ended firmly 31 August here this year. -
Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
damianslaw replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
For snow lovers 3 months too early. These synoptics would by then most likely give a rain to snow event, with plenty of snow showers or bands of snow packing in behind, given it is an unstable set up. Alas at this time of year just cold rain. Still its always interesting to see amplified flows in Autumn, diving low pressure into Europe. -
Have you turned your heating on yet?
damianslaw replied to stewfox's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Gave in today and kept electric heater on for lengthy periods of the day, otherwise temp would have stayed around 16 degrees, which is uncomfortable and does not aid concentration and productivity when sat working. Can get away with no heating when not working.. -
Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
damianslaw replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Expect we've had at least an inch today. Feels so far an average month rainfall wise in thr Lake District. We've had a very dry middle third following a wet first third. Last third looking wetter but nothing substantive. -
September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Difference with this September's warmth and that of most September's is it was unusually wet and cloudy with it. Only the far SE experienced sunny drt warmth mid month briefly. Consequently for many especially further north it will be a September with minimal warm dry weather, the dry weather has come with average temps. -
September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Should see a continued drop through rest of the month, perhaps more notably so for a time. Good chance could easily knock off 1 degree. September is perhaps the most cooling of months, early Sept often warm, the last few days usually much cooler. October though equally if not more so a cooling month. March and April equal probably the most warming month. -
Have you turned your heating on yet?
damianslaw replied to stewfox's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Ideal temp is about 19 degrees. I can cope well with 18 degrees, but below this when working and sitting still it becomes more uncomfortable, but can still live with no heating at 17 degrees, just about 16 degrees, but duvet and extra layers needed 15 degrees or below. People's tolerance levels are very dependent on factors such as age, sex, weight, health conditions, how much mobility they have. -
September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yes despite me bemoaning the currwnt benign conditions, it is turning into a more varied September than usual. Unusually the warmth has been associated with more cyclonic conditions. A couple of potent northerlies bringing quite cold conditions - the next one looks cold. The CET will disguise the variability. -
September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Looking increasingly will end in the 14s and comfortably so. -
Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
damianslaw replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Doesn't tell us much really for Europe. All that anomalous warmth.. mmm there has to be a trough somewhere in our vicinity.. not convinced it can be used to determine exact positioning of ridge and trough on east side atlantic and europe. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
damianslaw replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Models behaving in a very Autumn La Nina base state, generally equates to strong mid atlantic heights, waxing and waning, at times allowing colder and wetter incursions from the north and north west, which can then develop into a cyclonic set up, at other times ridging in to give calm settled conditions. As the autumn moves on, the propensity for colder rather than warmer to dominate increases. -
Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
damianslaw replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
My calandar says autumn starts on 23rd September - rather late it seems, usually the 21st or 22nd if basing on the equinox. Models are showing a cold northerly flow setting in apt timing. -
September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
About 4.5 degrees below the norm, quite significantly lower than mid Sept mean. -
Have you turned your heating on yet?
damianslaw replied to stewfox's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Brief blast or two of electric heater needed at times last few days. Trying not to use it but need to be comfortable working.