Bristawl Si

It was earlier this week that the CFS was showing mild and wet for winter - enter much wrist slashing on here - now it's flipped the other way to some extent. Not convinced it's a model that should be taken too seriously to be honest. Maybe i'm being unfair but.....

Agreed! Same with Bewick Swans at Slimbridge....and the Fieldfares i've seen here a couple of winters, although they turned up in 09/10 and 10/11 - hmm....i'll keep an eye out for Fieldfares in the coming weeks.

Not v good apparently. How many LRFs end up correct anyway?! Dunno why everyone's getting so hooked up on end Oct/November anyway - winter down south doesnt usually get going (cold and snow) til after xmas in most years (if at all)

Agreed.....and it continues to baffle even the most scientific boffins at times right up to the 'last minute'!

Well if you're that confident, this far in advance, you can pick my lottery numbers for this Wednesday!

Exactly Chiono has been v forthright in saying such....but others seem to be latching onto SSWs as the only way to sustained cold. By the way your call for November and early December to be not v cold or snowy is a pretty safe one in betting terms, as this is pretty well normal for the UK in most Winters, bar Scotland.

Is Strat Warming the only route to cold though? I'd be interested if any of the experts on here can say if the classic cold and snowy Winters of 78/79, 81/82, Jan 87 and even as far back as 62/63 and 1947 were down to Strat Warming. Surely we can still get below average temps with no significant strat warming - the cold weather forecast this coming weekend is NOT because of strat warming. Not dismissing SW outright but it's just one part of any cold jigsaw for out part of the world. Not the be all and end all.

Agreed smartie. Winters 78/79, 81/82, jan 87. Even had blizzards and deep snow in Bristol and its suburbs.

What happens in October, November or December does not necessarily set the tone for the rest of any Winter. So why people are coming out with rubbish about Winter's over if this and that doesn't happen is just plain silly. Bar 2009/10 and 2010/11 i can only remember one Winter that 'started' (cold & snow) in earnest in late Nov/early Dec and that was 1981 (i'm sure there are others in my lifetime but can't remember them).

Good to see you're still posting TEITS If we get anywhere near to the classic blizzards from 78/79, 1981 and Jan '87 i'll be a happy bunny once Winter 2012/13 ends. I'll know we're on to 'a good thing' when your Beast from the East signature appears.. LOL

I particularly like 27th November - i think our area would be snowed in a la 78/79 style!

Steve's a frequent poster in here when the winter gets interesting....anyone know where Nick Sussex is? He's a great contributor on here and i'm surprised he hasn't been posting lately with the synoptics shaping up as they are at present.

Like anyone can predict the weather for a specific day 2 months in advance.

If i was a complete newbie looking into this thread (and the one before) i'd be very confused! It seems more manic than any other year i've popped in - and it's only October! Is this deliberate by NW, to drive traffic thru' the site, on behalf of the advertisers?

And the winter that followed was an epic that delivered the most frequent and severe blizzards in my lifetime that i can remember.

So do i but hasnt the CFS been showing different winter scenarios almost every day lately?

Fair play to Gibby - he's been calling average temps or milder for days now and refused to get drawn into the 'cold' camp - v consistent from him - good call, sir.

The overall tone of some posts were defo fuelling hopes. Yes it is cold for early Oct at the mo.

Yes, 1947 is the one my dad always goes on about - "didnt start until last few days of January". So agreed - why worry about now and into November?

What happens in November means zilch all for rest of winter. 6/7 years ago here in the south west we had decent snow in late Nov and the rest of the winter was fairly mild and wet. A few yrs ago we had a really mild and v wet november and the rest of winter was quite cold with some snow - i think that was 2009/10 but not sure. Then 2010/11 was cold 2nd half Nov and into December -Jan/Feb pretty average i think. From these examples in recent yrs u can see it varies.

1st pint of thatchers just coming to an end! cheers!

How do u know that for sure? If u genuinely do know and can make this kind of statement every year and are proven right each year you will become a very rich man. Good luck to you!

Any chance of picking my lottery numbers for tomorrow? Come to think of it could you pick them for the 1st Saturday in January? Some of the posts in here are truly laughable - it's not even mid-October yet!

So what went wrong with the forecast? As late as 10.30 last night the forecast was for rain all thru the early hours and dreadful rush hour. Minimal here. Poor show - so how people put faith in models predicting a week or two in advance is beyond me. And as for months ahead!

Exactly - but my 'prediction' does slightly favour colder and snowier than last winter. As with last year's winter forecast i've used 'a law of averages' hunch methodology. I believe we are in a 10-year cycle of generally colder, snowier winters interrupted by less cold winters (like last winter). It takes me about 90 seconds and is likely to be as accurate as other, more thought out forecasts. I'm in no way dismissing those on NW that genuinely have real meto talent and who use v scientific methodology - i just don't have that knowledge & expertise.