Liam J

Yes, further minor adjustments southwards, I wonder just how far south this will end up! I remember yesterday many were kicking up a fuss about the Met/BBC forecasts playing down the risk of snow well it looks like the Met Office were calling this pretty much bang on. They do have far more tools than then the publicly available model outputs we have access to. Dry, cool, frosty with variable amounts of cloud which will have an impact on night time minima, good weather for drying out the waterlogged areas of the UK.

Predominately dry for much of the UK this week with locations on the other side the Channel likely to see the most of any decent snowfalls which may clip the far south, more like flurries elsewhere. I just hope it isn't a very cloudy scenario or without a doubt this will be a very boring spell of weather indeed. A record breaking cold start to March over parts of the continent looking quite possible as the PV and severe cold air drop south into Europe.

Yes, if it's a cloudy slate grey type flow then one good thing about living west of the Pennines is their ability to break up cloud sheets in an easterly flow which would otherwise lead to grey and depressing skies! In such set ups it can be well below freezing overnight here under clear skies whilst further east under cloud the temps hover around the 0c mark or just above. I'm sure that further changes will occur across the outputs in coming days, this is far from set in stone and the crucial element and deciding factor will be the position of the high pressure cell. I'd absolutely love to have retrogression towards Greenland then we'd be really talking, some serious cold lurking not far away.

Looks like a prolonged spell of mainly dry and chilly weather coming up after the initial risk of some light snow showers towards the east & south east. Winter then perhaps leaving us on a rather quiet note with some sharp frosts by night and cool days, with light winds and the stronger sun at this time of year it would feel fairly pleasant but obviously this depends on cloud amounts.

I was using that as an example, if you follow the GFS into low res from T192 then the abrupt change is synoptics isn't so plausible IMO. At any stage of the winter you can experience a return of milder conditions following a cold snap, indeed the same could apply at any time of the year. The chances of having sustained deep cold are greatly reduced as we enter March, thats to be expected given the ever longer days.

As if by magic in low resolution the GFS thinks hmmm something isn't right how can I remove this cold block as fast possible lol http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=1

Quite a prolonged cold assault on the GFS this morning, strong easterly winds giving many days of sub zero windchill & penetrating frosts then factoring in the potential for snowfall things could get interesting. If this was happening within the next few days then it would likely trigger a cold weather alert pretty high up on the Met Office scale. Some quite classic looking winter charts it has to be said whether they verify or not. Look how far the Atlantic is being kept at bay! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=186&mode=0

Ignoring any snow potential at this range the 6z is a very cold run, bitterly cold with notable wind chill and any thoughts of spring would seem like an age away. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=0

The T168 pressure chart is superb!! it's not as if it's the final run before the event and thats exactly how it's going look so I don't see what all this panic is about. Start worrying over upper air temps within T72 and sooner, not post 144/168.

They say initialised on Thursday 14th Feb on the bottom?

It's not just you. I think it's that old adage if something looks to good to be true it normally is, NWP models included! Long way to run with this latest saga so don't get overly disheartened or ecstatic for the moment. High hopes lead to huge falls so expect little and we may end up being surprised!

I was hoping to wake up to see a nice GH back but sadly that isn't the case! GFS is much better compared to recent days whilst the ECM had toned things down but we knew that would happen. Still time for things to change for the better or indeed for the worse with perhaps further watering down of the cold once we get closer, really hope this is one of those situations that actually upgrade towards T0. The stronger sun at this of year will cause modification at the surface, so even with upper air temps maybe around -8c to -10c the surface temps during the afternoon will likely peak widely in positive values with daytime maxes of 2c to 4c, obviously feeling much colder when factoring the windchill and during any wintry showers the temperature will fall then rise again afterwards.

In stronger easterly flows it is possible to have a covering of snow for more western areas, you'd really need to see some significant trough features which contain a lot of energy plus a strong wind driving them westwards. Hope the 00z ECM brings back the Greenland high!

Oh god I was so happy when you finally popped your cherry!

It's not that the ECM isn't good it's the fact that it's not as good as the previous runs which have been bullish with GH + PV sliding towards the UK. I was a little disheartened when the GH didn't materialise but as others have said this is only one run, perhaps the rest of the suite will support the GH evolution? Well I hope so Be nice to see some sub -10c 850's over the UK as the -6c to -8c aren't that impressive given the time of year longer days etc. Just a minor gripe and anyway it's a bit premature to be delving into such details. Great set of 12z's, now all we need is the charts making into the T96 time frame.

Correct, there is no Greenland High on this run so in that respect it's not as good as previous outputs but far from a disaster.

Another superb ECM coming up. T120 - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

Aurora watch UK have issued an amber geomagnetic activity alert, perhaps some visible sightings later, and not just over the far north of the British Isles. http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/

You mean the shortwave the GFS was still modelling wrong within the T72-96 time frame when all the other models had nailed it dropping through the UK. GFS has been the worse out of a not so good bunch at times.

I think the penny has finally dropped for the GFS with much less energy heading north east compared to previous outputs, it might take a few more runs though. A very poor winter for the GFS model it's been anything but a leader. http://www.meteociel...&ech=138&mode=0

Oh ECM, you big tease you

Blimey, if you believe the ECM then I think the phrase ''you ain't seen nothing yet'' comes to mind regarding the weather we've seen so far this winter! Exactly the kind of charts you now want to see verify, just in case you weren't around for the likes of 47/62/63

After the snow/rain it's now the wind thats the main focal point with gusts of 50-55mph, took the dogs out and nearly got blown over with a gust of 57mph according to my anemometer. Also a severe windchill well into minus double digits at times with an actual air temp of 2.0c, most of the snow has now melted. All in all a very exciting action packed wintry day, snow/rain/gales, in that order

Snow cover is taking a serious beating with rising temps and heavy rain, bad times, still it was a pretty good frontal snow to rain event. Just a shame it wasn't a stalling front.

Back to sleety rain with a continuing thaw, It's horrible watching snow melt thats only just fallen!