Storms and Convective discussion - May 2024

[Southern Storm]

 Jamie M Thank you Jamie, I get the impression you're a bit of a connoisseur when it comes to audio, I Watched the video you posted the other day on YouTube and the sound on that was very nice indeed!

I looked up the microphone you were using and was surprised at how affordable it was, did you buy it just for recording thunderstorms?

The audio you referred to was recorded with the basic built-in microphone, as I forgot to plug in the Rode video micro I had with me, it would have helped a lot with wind noise.

We all like seeing nice bolts, but capturing good sound is just as important!

[Jamie M]

 Southern Storm

 I wish I was a connoisseur  but yeah I did buy the Zoom H1n for thunderstorms although it's designed to being a desktop microphone for 99% of the year. There's definitely some settings I need to change as it still sounds a bit quieter than it could be but that's just me winging it without reading any instructions! I'd definitely recommend it though as I love me some crisp audio 

[TJS1998Tom]

BBC suggesting Lincolnshire could be good for this afternoon, wonder if there might be one or two last minute yellow warnings added later if anything starts to develop

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Raining quite persistently. Doesn’t seem very likely there will be any thunder until this all moves away and/or we can get some convergence going

[Robert1981]

 Southern Storm hi I follow u on YouTube u have some great footage.

Norwich mousehold heath over looks the city near the prison is a great spot probably too far for u but it reminds me of your recent video. 

[Cain]

Fingers crossed today in the 40% zone 

[Thunders]

 Cain good luck, in 20% risk zone today

[Cain]

 Thunders and you never know could get lucky feels warmer today 

[ANYWEATHER]

A large area of Cirrostratus Nebulosis ,just starting to break here, so if this hangs around very limited convection,  but have the feeling that it may deliver later with some big holes in the clouds to allow convection. ....☺

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

Morning all can someone tell me the chance to see something local to me in Manston thankyou 

[Paul]

For those interested in storms further afield, a major tornado outbreak is possible in the USA later today, which you can discuss and follow here

Closer to home, @Nick F has issued a storm forecast for today:

Forecast Details
Upper low will be slow-moving across northern France on Monday, with an upper and surface trough extending north over England & S Scotland and a ridge of high pressure to the west over Ireland. Cold mid-level temperatures across much of mainland UK today (-20 to -23C at 500 hPa) will create steep lapse rates, which with surface heating and breeze convergence in slack pressure pattern, will support heavy showers and thunderstorms to develop through the day. 

Risk of a storm will be fairly widespread but scattered inland across England and S Scotland, more organised rain moving in across SE England this morning may hinder surface heating, but even here, a thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out, as rain turns more showery in nature this afternoon. 

As convective cells will be slow-moving - there is a risk of localised flooding where rainfall is heavy for a prolonged time. Storms may produce hail and also funnel clouds along breeze convergence.

[Cain]

Some decent cloud breaks here now hopefully will help things start 

[Jamie M]

Thunderstorm warning in the SE is probably the place I'd least expect it today 

[CoventryWeather]

 Jamie M that wipes out any storms today then. 

[Thunders]

 Jamie M why have we just been issued a thunder warning, i thought it was wet all day #

 

[Dangerous55019]

Morning all.

I’ve just seen that the U.K. Meto has just issued a yellow thunderstorm warning!

As always… Good luck to everyone with this today.

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook ️

A convergence zone may force showers along an increasingly moist airmass zone, some of which may become thunderstorms. With strong lapse-rates helping lift at the surface helped by surface heating which also forces 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE and 600+ J/KG of MLCAPE.

 

Weak shearing keeps the showers pulse-type and limits their height potential and also ability to become significant. Hail risk is relatively low then despite helpful background signals, mostly 1-2cm hail appears possible.

 

Saturation is high limiting lightning risk despite strong showers being possible. With weak CAPE and small storms heights, the lightning risk appears to be rather sporadic and unorgani sed.

[ANYWEATHER]

 Dangerous55019 well that's scuppered the chances for that....

[A Face like Thunder]

 Thunders Interesting. I can see the case for the warning on and around the Pennines but not in London if it is already raining there from a seperate system. I am not even sure that we shall see any thunder here in South Cheshire, or at least I hope not as kick off at Crewe Alexandra is at 5.30pm! 

[Jamie M]

 Thunders I'm a bit confused too as I thought the rain bands currently wouldn't have anything thundery to them at all.

Perhaps they're anticipating a bit more of a clearance than originally thought? 

[cheese]

Warm and sunny in Leeds. Fingers crossed for later  

Edited May 6 by cheese

[AndyFromDonny]

 A Face like Thunder

 

Let's hope not, I'm setting off in an hour and we could do without that at the game or on the journey down.

Certainly signs of convection here at home in Doncaster.

[Cain]

Actually feeling quite warm here 

[Thunderspotter]

I'm a bit confused at the Met's warning for the south coast. Last time I checked, we were just due for a little rain. They seem to be thinking that the system in the SE right now will turn thunder a bit later? 

[Southern Storm]

 Jamie M The warning covering southern areas doesn't come into force until midday. Looking at the current radar, in the southeast, it looks like the rain band will have plenty of time to move through and allow the sun to get to work,  2 pm onwards should be interesting.

I'm not expecting much for my area, too much cloud to allow for any surface heating, that is unless there are other drivers at work.