First 30 degrees 2024 watch

[damianslaw]

We've had the first 25 degrees this year, and quite possibly 27 degrees today, the latter if verifies will be very good going for this early stage in the season.

Alas time for a first 30 degree watch thread..

Might it occur before the end of May.

[Metwatch]

Thanks for starting the thread. Typically the first 30C of the year since 2003 can be expected in mid to late June, occasionally in July and rarely in May / August. I would say with decent confidence it won't be in May this year.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Metwatch Have we hit 30 annually for the past 10 years?

[Metwatch]

 *Stormforce~beka*

Yes for the last 30 years now

Hottest day of each year from 1900

WWW.TREVORHARLEY.COM

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Metwatch Wow!

[Don]

I'm thinking early June at this stage.  

[Met.]

I hope it doesn't happen. Probably will as only one year here in my records has failed to do so. 23°C is more than high enough for me!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I am going for 10th of June.

[B87]

13th June

[raz.org.rain]

Probably before the end of May I reckon, I guessed a few weeks ago that we might see 25°c and 30°c in May, got the first bit right.

[damianslaw]

 Metwatch 1993 the last year failed to deliver 30 degrees, only just achieved it in 2007. Last year's highest temp lowest yearly max since 2009. I suspect we will see 30 degrees by the solstice thanks to a plume, doubt by the end of May. 

Edited May 13 by damianslaw

[B87]

 raz.org.rain 30c in May would be very rare. Hasn't happened since 2005 here.

[Wade]

I hope we don't hit 30 degrees at all this year plus it would break the 30 years in a row where 30 degrees has been reached or breached 

[markyo]

 Wade I suspect many would agree with you!

[Summerlover2006]

 damianslaw that’s not true 2010 didn’t hit 32.2C and 2021 just hit it 2023 highest temp was 33.5C.

[raz.org.rain]

 damianslaw looking through the records for the past 150 years, only 17 years have failed to reach 30°c. According to Trevor Harley's website, less than 50% of summers since 1900 have failed to reach 32°c (data stops at 2019).

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain No summer since 2019 has failed to do so either. Lowest was 32.2C in 2021.

Hottest day of each year from 1900

WWW.TREVORHARLEY.COM

Back on topic we have a GEM ensemble member showing 32C tonight, and on bank holiday Monday (27th) no less. Would potentially tie the May national record. Posted it on the model thread for a bit of a laugh - highly unlikely of course.

Here it is:

[B87]

 Wade A repeat of June 2018, July 1997 and August 2009 would do that.

I think most would be happy with such a summer.