Glimmer of hope model discussion

[smich]

I agree, TEITS, I think that cold 850 air over Europe is looking very solid (!). If that LP continues to trend further S in later runs, it will nudge the surface HP over Scandi and voila!

Still a long way out and it will go t!ts up in FI for a few runs yet...but the potential is definately there.

smich

[Thundery wintry showers]

I notice WIB was quoting the FI charts from ECMWF (T+192 and T+216). If we were talking a cold spell in FI, I would be saying "it's not set in stone yet because it's out in FI, more runs are needed". The same applies to the mild spell- although I did forecast that the Atlantic would (temporarily) win out in the February forecast, it is by no means certain given the recent model trend of increasingly high pressure to the NE keeping fronts at bay.

I can't see the HP resisting the jet in the long term, but there is a chance of the jet undercutting the HP and heading south- unusual in recent years, but not unknown.

The 06Z looks decidedly marginal, but I wouldn't say it looks like a non-event either; certainly areas above about 200m from the Midlands northwards would have a substantial snow event. Only for Ireland is there little chance of any of the white stuff.

[nick sussex]

Odds on the 12z, 18z and 0z showing the same set up from T66 to T102? Probably 100-1!!

Morning Snowmaiden well this run actually trends towards the ecm 00hrs run, you never know we might still get a decent breakdown and then a scandi high! that was a mini ramp! this is all exciting stuff, I have no idea where we'll end up but I would take the crappier breakdown if it means a better longer term pattern.

[Snowly does it]

Morning Snowmaiden well this run actually trends towards the ecm 00hrs run, you never know we might still get a decent breakdown and then a scandi high! that was a mini ramp! this is all exciting stuff, I have no idea where we'll end up but I would take the crappier breakdown if it means a better longer term pattern.

I'm going to wait and see what the next few runs bring I think. Its a big correction for the sub -5 air on this run in short timescale, these things often backtrack a little, we'll see.

Definitely seasonal for the week ahead, snow or not!

[Weather-history]

FAX chart for Thursday

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVP89.TIF

[Harsh Climate]

You guys in the south east can forget the 'battleground' scenario bringing you snow, it aint guna happen...... Start looking over to scandinavia, height rises extending north and west of there are key. And like I keep saying it all boils down to not haveing low pressure to the north of scandinavia...

But for us in northern england, very exciting times ahead! As things stand Id say around 200m plus for any real aaccumalative snow that lasts a good while..

[TEITS]

lol, the south east were never at risk from the battleground scenario... still looks good for me though...

Do you dislike the SE as you always seem to refer to this location .

I wouldn't be to smug TBH if the current trend continues because the SE could well be the place to be!.

[Snowly does it]

You guys in the south east can forget the 'battleground' scenario bringing you snow, it aint guna happen...... Start looking over to scandinavia, height rises extending north and west of there are key. And like I keep saying it all boils down to not haveing low pressure to the north of scandinavia...

But for us in northern england, very exciting times ahead! As things stand Id say around 200m plus for any real aaccumalative snow that lasts a good while..

Jed, some of us 'In the South East' are just looking at the models and are genuinely interested in this battleground. I am glad you look like having some snow oop north. I am just glad to see temperatures at more seasonal levels for a while. I think I'll see some sleet this week at some point

[snowmadchrisuk]

HMM THE SNOW BREAKDOWN still there but not looking as good for the midlands as it did on yesterdays runs. i'm gonna withheld judgement as didnt expext the 6z to have 4 days of amazing runs. i'm thinking this run could be an outlier so awaiting the essembles.

[grab my graupel]

Dissapointing temperature difference from the 06z this morning

Lets hope it's wrong.

[Harsh Climate]

Do you dislike the SE as you always seem to refer to this location .

I wouldn't be to smug TBH if the current trend continues because the SE could well be the place to be!.

ovcoarse I dont

Its just that the battleground scenario neava affects the south east. Its ussually scotland/nothern/england/midlands and possibly a few locations not far away from them..

Edited February 3, 2007 by Jed Bickerdike

[carinthian]

I don't think we should be doing the 'us vs them - I've got snow you haven't' kind of statements. The situation regarding snow potential is far from certain yet amyway the way the output keeps changing. I will be pleased if anywhere, ultimately, has a chance and it would be hoped that mutual goodwill exists amongst all of us.

As nick s gas said what is far more interesting is the potential new trend to come out of this with high pressure developing to the north east and the effect that may have on the further outlook.

Tamara

Well said Tamara,

I think to clue lies to the NE.By Thursday, there will be an extensive wedge of cold air to the East and North. Much of continental Europe will have sub- zero surface air further south. So a cold block is not out of the question, North or South.

C

[grab my graupel]

Dissapointing temperature difference from the 06z this morning

Lets hope it's wrong.

[nick sussex]

Regarding the 00hrs ecm run some interest in the De Bilt ensembles for the time of the breakdown, the ecm operational was one of the mildest options for next wed/thursday suggesting that we may see a slightly improved 12hrs run.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

It looks like until we see the models resolve what happens to pressure over scandi then all model output past 96hrs is likely to remain very volatile.

Edited February 3, 2007 by nick sussex

[Harsh Climate]

Dissapointing temperature difference from the 06z this morning

Lets hope it's wrong.

I dont mind this too much. The 06z is a massive turn for the worst compared to the 00z regarding the battleground situation, yet we are still at risk of seeing some persistent snow (settling snow still remains the question) in our area.

In these situations north/west/south yorkshire are renound for doing better than others in low lying areas..

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't see much cause for despondency yet- in the current messy synoptic setup, there will always be variation from run to run.

[grab my graupel]

I dont mind this too much. The 06z is a massive turn for the worst compared to the 00z regarding the battleground situation, yet we are still at risk of seeing some persistent snow (settling snow still remains the question) in our area.

In these situations north/west/south yorkshire are renound for doing better than others in low lying areas..

No I'm not suggesting that either as I think we still have the potential for something

special still to happen.

Also one milder run dosen't mean a downgrade.

Very interesting times IMO

[Matty M]

most of 6z's have a better breakdown, most dont go for ridge over Scandy..

Most go for violent zonality from 144hrs... very violent southerly tracking LP's!

[Frosty.]

Okay i'll say it for the last time!!

The 6z is aload of gack and real disappointment!!

We heard you the first time. When does it ever get snowy in southern ireland anyway???? Even though the 06z seems progressive it should not be taken as gospel, the models will ultimately struggle with the breakdown later next week, just as it did in March 1996 when countryfile predicted a mild week ahead and it was bitterly cold with south easterly gales off a very cold continent which turned the rain to heavy snow as the isobers kinked. High pressure to the east acted as a buffer, stalling the fronts and feeding continental cold air into the mix for several days.

Edited February 3, 2007 by Frosty039

[summer blizzard]

Out of interest, if all went to plan, what kind of accumulations could i be looking at above 200 metres?????

[Matty M]

We heard you the first time. When does it ever get snowy in southern ireland anyway???? Even though the 06z seems progressive it should not be taken as gospel, the models will ultimately struggle with the breakdown later next week, just as it did in March 1996 when countryfile predicted a mild week ahead and it was bitterly cold with south easterly gales off a very cold continent which turned the rain to heavy snow as the isobers kinked. High pressure to the east acted as a buffer, stalling the fronts and feeding continental cold air into the mix for several days.

Still doesn't mean it can't get snow does it?

We used to have many snows in the early 90's and 80's..

Last big snow was in 2001 where i got just under a foot of the stuff.. was a freak event but still.

Ireland does get snow but over the last few years hasn't.. Why does it mean i can't get critical of the a weather run because it differed so much from the previous one?

I am quite enthusiastic about the upcoming event because it bears some resembelance to an event that took place back in 1982

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119820108.gif

Although the synoptics are now beginning to look abit different the above chart gave 8 feet drifts to central Dublin.. with level snow over 3 foot.. Dublin virtually shut down for 2 weeks..

So in a word Dublin does get snow and it did in a spectacular in a very similar synoptic to the one projected for next week.

and as can been seen it doesnt have to be necessarily extremely cold http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00219820108.gif

Edited February 3, 2007 by Matty M

[johnholmes]

very violent southerly tracking LP's!???

[Globe]

When does it ever get snowy in southern ireland anyway????

A handful of times over the last 20 years or so, but we do still hope for it also

[grab my graupel]

We heard you the first time. When does it ever get snowy in southern ireland anyway???? Even though the 06z seems progressive it should not be taken as gospel, the models will ultimately struggle with the breakdown later next week, just as it did in March 1996 when countryfile predicted a mild week ahead and it was bitterly cold with south easterly gales off a very cold continent which turned the rain to heavy snow as the isobers kinked.

Morning Karl.

Yes it's still really difficult to call this one, with so many changes of the model output

just this week, I doubt we will find out for certain until the actual breakdown happens.

I hope there are suprises as you suggest, it might teach some of us not to be too hasty.

After that who knows, but it's great fun watching.

Brian

[Troubleatmill]

I dont mind this too much. The 06z is a massive turn for the worst compared to the 00z regarding the battleground situation, yet we are still at risk of seeing some persistent snow (settling snow still remains the question) in our area.

In these situations north/west/south yorkshire are renound for doing better than others in low lying areas..

I want snow for everyone not just my or anyones particular area , i think we have all suffered this winter ,i think sounding a little smug can just annoy folk