Glimmer of hope model discussion

[Weather-history]

It often happens with these battleground situations. 21-23 January 1984 (as I posted a chart from earlier) and 5-7 February 1996 both had cool westerlies battling with cold continental air.

Yes but not a very good sign for those who predicted for a very mild February.

Edited February 3, 2007 by Mr_Data

[HellyHanson]

Atlantics really stuggles to get through

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/120_30.gif

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/126_30.gif

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/132_30.gif

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/138_30.gif

Kind of stalls across the spine of the country then fades away

Edited February 3, 2007 by JACKONE
To ensure all links work

[Snowyowl9]

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1261.png

The first system could grind to a halt.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1322.png

[poison1]

slightly off topic i know but cold air has already arrived in northern england with snow grains and 1 degree being reported at spadeadam and only 3 degrees in carlisle.

[TEITS]

One thing I do want to add is when I said the countryfile forecast could be null & void by Mon I wasn't being disrespectful to them. I find the Met O to be the best in the world when it comes to forecasting but in these situations it must be a nightmare to forecast. When you consider we shall already have cold air in place, pressure rising to our E, Atlantic trying to move in which isn't exactly bringing mild air in, it all adds to being a huge headache for any forecaster.

[summer blizzard]

The GFS12z may be good in comparison to previous runs however in terms of snowfall likelyhood it points to a snow turning to rain senario on both occasions...

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/datmrfcompare.asp

The FAX charts on the other hand point to a all snow event from the Midlands northward.

[johnholmes]

One thing I do want to add is when I said the countryfile forecast could be null & void by Mon I wasn't being disrespectful to them. I find the Met O to be the best in the world when it comes to forecasting but in these situations it must be a nightmare to forecast. When you consider we shall already have cold air in place, pressure rising to our E, Atlantic trying to move in which isn't exactly bringing mild air in, it all adds to being a huge headache for any forecaster.

it is what they are paid for Dave.

As the expression goes, 'if you can't stand the heat in the kitchen etc'.

As you say difficult but its their job. For sure the usual discussion between the Prinicpal Forecaster and the duty Met office forecaster at the BBC may well be longer than usual!

[TEITS]

Even by +336 is hasn't turned mild.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png

WIB will be having kittens when he views this run especially after his 7.7 CET prediction

[high ground birmingham]

Boy oh boy, isnt the 12z stunning for the Midlands northwards, not one but two battles progged, obviously still a lot of uncertainty as this event edges slightly into the more reliable timeframe.

Not once on this run upt T180 is any mild Atlantic weather progged.

[SnowJoke]

Yes but not a very good sign for those who predicted for a very mild February.

Hmmm i'm nicely suprised that things are falling into line now, my feb 2007 CET prediction of 3.6'c may well be bang on.

I'm also watching the high pressure out over scandinavia building with every model output run, roberts predictions of widespread snowfall around the 10th of february are looking more and more likely IMO, i'm just hoping my prediction of the scandi high bringing the beast from the east in comes true also.

Going to be an intense few days of model watching, but i feel were only only going to see further upgrades on consecutie model runs from now on. Still is a bit patchy at the minute, as the models are trying to cope with a cold scenario. We all no proper cold events don't happen that often, and this is what is leading to all the model uncertainty.

I'll just sit back, grab a hot chocolate and wait for a proper wintry spell to start!

[Paul]

Just a reminder to all - the latest charts are available on nw here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Model comparison here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=modelcomp;sess=

Ensembles here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

(these are updating a little slower than usual at the moment, but we're working on fixing that)

And more here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...type=home;sess=

All are in English, update very quickly and using them shows some support for netweather as well!!! We want feedback on these features, so please let us know how we can improve them too.

[grab my graupel]

Even by +336 is hasn't turned mild.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png

WIB will be having kittens when he views this run especially after his 7.7 CET prediction

[mcweather]

it is what they are paid for Dave.

As the expression goes, 'if you can't stand the heat in the kitchen etc'.

As you say difficult but its their job. For sure the usual discussion between the Prinicpal Forecaster and the duty Met office forecaster at the BBC may well be longer than usual!

Quite so John. That is what they are paid for.

However meteorology and particularly weather forecasting is not an exact science, it is in the main about probabilities and likelyhoods.

As you say the discussion between the forecasters based on the very latest info could be very interesting and lengthy......... and could still go mamaries skyward.

[grab my graupel]

slightly off topic i know but cold air has already arrived in northern england with snow grains and 1 degree being reported at spadeadam and only 3 degrees in carlisle.

Great stuff, good to hear that.

Welcome to the forum by the way.

Brian

Edited February 3, 2007 by grab my graupels

[high ground birmingham]

I have been noticing from the models recently that there is a shortwave feature before the main front that is progged for the battle on Thurs.

This is the shortwave feature at T102 (Wednesday 18z). This could give 2-4cm across North and mid Wales, the NW Midlands and NW England before the main battle commences. I haven't seen anyone mention this feature.

[mcweather]

Looking into FI on the 12z. It does look like a reload situation and if it came off a reload with a half decent Scandi high. Ah if only................

[tom_f123]

alex deakin just said that there MIGHT be a LITTLE more snow later next week

[nick sussex]

Afternoon all

Well it looks like everyones a bit happier than after the 06hrs run. However everyone knows I like to ramp but the building of pressure to the east is still liable to cause problems for the models, its very difficult for them to pinpoint how far east the front will move and its likely to weaken as it comes up against the high pressure to the east.

I know its frustrating but really dont get your hopes up too much for snow until within 48hrs as these types of synoptics lend themselves to being a complete nightmare to forecast.

We still have to see what the other models make of this, theres bound to be some disagreement.

[Tim Bland]

I notice the front seems to fizzle out as it reaches the East. This seems to be ongoing trend as the scandi high increases. I have a funy fealing that those east of the midlands may not see anything as the front dissapates. Would like to be prven wrong though!

[kippure]

The following charts below show how as each low comes in , its pushed north west back out into the atlantic. Plenty of upgrades to come. Maybe one of them lows will head south and pull in some eastern cold?

Fun times ahead. Definately a battle ground situation coming up. Theres no mild on the way.

[Matty M]

The following charts below show how as each low comes in , its pushed north west back out into the atlantic. Plenty of upgrades to come. Maybe one of them lows will head south and pull in some eastern cold?

Fun times ahead. Definately a battle ground situation coming up. Theres no mild on the way.

Becoming more confident that it won't be fun for us..

Only 2 ENS memeber give snow here

[kippure]

Becoming more confident that it won't be fun for us..

Only 2 ENS memeber give snow here

This is just the start again!...of a cold period. We seem to be surround by cold in europe and out in the atlantic. Something good will come of this.

Edited February 3, 2007 by kippure

[PersianPaladin]

I know its F.I. (but has been appearing on a number of runs now) with the main 500mb polar airmass re-emerging northwards back towards Greenland from northern europe towards the lower res part of the run; a Scandi-high ridge does not look likely to last. I can only see it gradually ebbing away east or south-east.

I hope this prediction turns out to be wrong.

Edited February 3, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[Snowyowl9]

This is the shortwave feature at T102 (Wednesday 18z). This could give 2-4cm across North and mid Wales, the NW Midlands and NW England before the main battle commences. I haven't seen anyone mention this feature.

Well spotted could be interesting.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1024.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1921.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn19217.png

The cold air seems to want to hang on in this run.

[Stuart]

the UKMO is out and it look not to bad to me

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?...=1021&ech=6

Edited February 3, 2007 by Stuart H