Glimmer of hope model discussion

[West is Best]

Not a bad DIY snow risk chart!

Very surprised by WIB's comments earlier on.

I think it may be due to the models shifting away from his predictions/forecasts and going for a colder outlook.

Get ready for upgrades with delight.

Tried PMing you but it's either switched off or you are not allowed. I'm posting elsewhere. There's room for everyone on NW, but sometimes this means giving latitude for the likes and dislikes of some others. So I'll mostly be posting on a different thread where if you so desire (!) you can even see my views on next week http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...mp;#entry908974

[Frosty.]

It's going to be thrilling knife-edge stuff between thursday and saturday next week, it will be excellent if the cold air can win a battle against the mild just for once. Major snowfalls are possible for the first time in a few years.

[tinybill]

Tried PMing you but it's either switched off or you are not allowed. I'm posting elsewhere. There's room for everyone on NW, but sometimes this means giving latitude for the likes and dislikes of some others. So I'll mostly be posting on a different thread where if you so desire (!) you can even see my views on next week http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...mp;#entry908974

all i say is i hope people have got plenty of grit by 174 hr as i thik we might need it i know its a bit later then it was i just hope the wait worth it

pps fax chart for 132 hr if that comes off me thinks the uk will be covered with snow

Edited February 3, 2007 by tinybill

[The PIT]

I'm getting worried I agree with WIB again.

As I've said a few time already the favoured spots are Scotland and then NE although I'm beginning to think NE will be Marginal as well.

[nick sussex]

Jan 08th 1982 please...and please don't bring up footie tonight

Need a scandi high for that, otherwise the sypnotics are spot on!

KTtom

Okay lets forget about the football! the problem with the proposed set up next week is that its marginal for areas away from the north, as you said with a strong scandi high and lots of cold air embedded at the surface this helps enormously to deliver to the widest area if fronts come up against this block. Next week although we will get some colder air its not cold enough to give a better margin for error. But its one of those situations that can often surprise aswell as disappoint in equal measure, the problem is that we dont have a concrete idea of the exact breakdown and we wont know this till much nearer the time.

[The PIT]

ECM has been performing poorly of late; so I take this latest run with a large wad of salt.

Translated this means not showing what people want. Looking at the 12oz comparisons results it's only last few days it hasn't done so well. Overall though theres little to chose between the big three.

[grab my graupel]

Tried PMing you but it's either switched off or you are not allowed. I'm posting elsewhere. There's room for everyone on NW, but sometimes this means giving latitude for the likes and dislikes of some others. So I'll mostly be posting on a different thread where if you so desire (!) you can even see my views on next week http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...mp;#entry908974

Hi Richard,

Reading your post on the technical thread highlights just what has concerned me

lately, particularly regards temps.

Do you not feel though that the Scandi high is showing signs of actually building in

the reliable timeframe and therefore becoming more stubborn, and a scenario that

has been backed up by the ensembles recently. and any weakening is in F.I.

Also isn't t168 a little far out to be talking about changes as we only saw the hight rises

appear on the models in the last couple of days and more runs are needed before

we can judge the final outcome.

Iam not disputing your theory but I think you are maybe being a little premature

with your ideas.

Brian.

Edited February 3, 2007 by grab my graupels

[ribster]

Don't laugh but here is a map i've drawn where I think the greatest risk of snowfall shall be.

Obviously my region is included

Oh boo Teits, nothing for Norwich?

[Methuselah]

woohoo, the real Pete is back, welcome back mate

Thanks mate!

Welcome back PT. Nice to see you posting.

The ECM looked interesting for a battleground - 850s between -4 and -6? So margainality and tenterhooks on the menu on that evolution..

Thanx SM...

[summer blizzard]

I at first though that it would be a marginal event as well however having had a look a the data, i have come to the conclusion that with the precipitation forecast to be fairly heavy, evaporative cooling should be expected and east of the Pennines, snow will fall.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The gfs has the grounds temps for the breakdown alot lower than I would expect them to be. Most of the 850 air by the time the ppn comes in is nearly 0, and we all know for snow south of scotland we need the hpa 850's to be at least -5. The setup was looking promising a couple of days ago but now I don't care what anybody says it's been downgraded like anything for next weeks setup. I'm not ruling out upgrades but find it highly unlikely unless the ppn can get in abit quicker.

Chris

Edited February 3, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

Just one other point before i go off to cook tea with my three year old.

With all this talk of breakdown and frontal snow are we not forgetting that there is going to be quiyte a cold tuesday with the 'risk' of snow showers down north sea facing coasts and hills!

Ned

[phil nw.]

Okay lets forget about the football! the problem with the proposed set up next week is that its marginal for areas away from the north, as you said with a strong scandi high and lots of cold air embedded at the surface this helps enormously to deliver to the widest area if fronts come up against this block. Next week although we will get some colder air its not cold enough to give a better margin for error. But its one of those situations that can often surprise aswell as disappoint in equal measure, the problem is that we dont have a concrete idea of the exact breakdown and we wont know this till much nearer the time.

Hi Nick,

Looking at 2m temps for later next week show its quite cold at surface even though at times many places are in 0 to -5c 850`s.

Illustrates your point about residual cold air even though on the face of it no real cold feed on those days.

The one concern about chances for Snow maybe the air drying out a little if the block asserts itself too much.

Notice too Nick that the air off the Atlantic is only marginally warmer and more Cold air lurking further West on that Jet pattern.

So plenty to focus on for a good while yet,it seems.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

i was thinking something more like this

Any chance of you slipping it south, say, 20-30miles should do me fine.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Just one other point before i go off to cook tea with my three year old.

With all this talk of breakdown and frontal snow are we not forgetting that there is going to be quiyte a cold tuesday with the 'risk' of snow showers down north sea facing coasts and hills!

Ned

Thats ok if you live in skegness or on top of a hill. but there again in skeggy the sst's would be to high.ha! you cant win. tuesday will be refreshing for a morning stole though.

Edited February 3, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[robert]

Just my daily post

* passes around cookies and hot chocolate* Jack frost is about!

The charts are looking good and can only get better!

Robert

[Matt Jones]

All the talk of PPN and snow, more often though we end up with the atlantic winning through quickly and mostly rain and milder temps or less often the cold air from the east winning and mostly dry conditions but cold. Rarely do we end up with the perfect, front in the right place and cold in the right place for a reasonable period of time.

There are so many possibilities here, the models will change and talk of snow at this stage is very hopeful.

[KTtom]

Notice too Nick that the air off the Atlantic is only marginally warmer and more Cold air lurking further West on that Jet pattern.

So plenty to focus on for a good while yet,it seems.

Thats one thing that has been bugging me. Why is everyone so sure this is a snow to rain event when the 2M temps behind the front are no warmer than preceeding it??

KT

[The Eagle]

If I may selfishly inject some IMBYism here ECM and UKMO good for my location GFS - bad.

All 3 excellent for the UK IMO.

So all to play for still. CRACKING ECM btw

[Matt Jones]

Thats ok if you live in skegness or on top of a hill. but there again in skeggy the sst's would be to high.ha! you cant win. tuesday will be refreshing for a morning stole though.

Don't know, this is the best part of winter for north sea coastal snow. With the sea temps reaching their lowest points around Feb/March. Well usually anyway maybe they are a bit higher this year!

Thats one thing that has been bugging me. Why is everyone so sure this is a snow to rain event when the 2M temps behind the front are no warmer than preceeding it??

KT

To me this is all projection, the air will be warmer behind fronts from the atlantic in this case.

[nick sussex]

Hi Nick,

Looking at 2m temps for later next week show its quite cold at surface even though at times many places are in 0 to -5c 850`s.

Illustrates your point about residual cold air even though on the face of it no real cold feed on those days.

The one concern about chances for Snow maybe the air drying out a little if the block asserts itself too much.

Notice too Nick that the air off the Atlantic is only marginally warmer and more Cold air lurking further West on that Jet pattern.

So plenty to focus on for a good while yet,it seems.

Evening Phil yes the gfs still progs some cold air at the surface but the problem is the surface flow, theres quite a lot of difference between 850s of say for example -5 with a continental flow and exactly the same value off the atlantic, the modification that is likely off the atlantic diminishes chances for snow. We often see snow events even when the 850s are not that much below freezing if the surface flow is drawn from the east because of the lower dewpoints and less modification. I'd say for next week its crucial that the fronts are orientated more nw/se and the surface flow is as close to easterly as possible, another factor is the wind, less wind and heavy precip better evaporative cooling which could make a difference. Because we dont have access to really cold air alot of things have to go right, for more northern areas theres more margin for error.

I would also add that regardless of what the synoptics show today people shouldnt be banking on snow, or worry too much about their location, one day one area might seem favoured the next day this might switch. This is all still evolving and whenever you have high pressure to the east trying to build then really be very wary of any model output until very close to the time.

Edited February 3, 2007 by nick sussex

[Matt Jones]

Evening Phil yes the gfs still progs some cold air at the surface but the problem is the surface flow, theres quite a lot of difference between 850s of say for example -5 with a continental flow and exactly the same value off the atlantic, the modification that is likely off the atlantic diminishes chances for snow. We often see snow events even when the 850s are not that much below freezing if the surface flow is drawn from the east because of the lower dewpoints and less modification. I'd say for next week its crucial that the fronts are orientated more nw/se and the surface flow is as close to easterly as possible, another factor is the wind, less wind and heavy precip better evaporative cooling which could make a difference. Because we dont have access to really cold air alot of things have to go right, for more northern areas theres more margin for error.

Agreed, Snow events are always more likely if a front has a more south to north direction, with the cold air ahead of this. I remember such an event in the early 90's where all the PPN was snow in the SE, though it turned milder eventually, only after the front had passed.

[The PIT]

Recent years have very poor for Frontal Snow. Is there anything to suggest that this will be any different? December 2005 showed that a few miles can make all the differance. While we had Sleet People had to be rescued from Cars East of Beverly. BY all reports they had very deap Snow. Although this has been exception in recent times.

Edited February 3, 2007 by The PIT

[January Snowstorm]

I love it when you have a good moan on this thread it always gives me a laugh.

Brian.

[Matt Jones]

Recent years have very poor for Frontal Snow. Is there anything to suggest that this will be any different? December 2005 showed that a few miles can make all the differance. While we had Sleet People had to be rescued from Cars East of Beverly. BY all reports they had very deap Snow. Although this has been exception in recent times.

Tell me about it, I live 20 miles from Beverly and had light rain here!