Glimmer of hope model discussion

[January Snowstorm]

One thing I do know for certain is that someone will be right.

That's a safe bet alright :lol: :lol:

Hope you feeling better Brian

JS - I know it's fashionable to ignore me on this thread (as with many of the other team members), but perhaps we should rename it the JS moaning thread as that's all you ever do on it?

That's a little unfair.

I would have thought we all play a part on here

[kippure]

Here

Just for JS . :lol:

[Thundery wintry showers]

Maybe JS's outlook is right for East Cork, but most of us come from England, and a significant number come from Scotland and Wales, where snow prospects are somewhat greater.

It's also worth noting that this Atlantic stuff to follow on (in FI) is hardly very mild-looking; cold westerly airflows are traditionally a source of snow for Ireland as the country faces the full force of cold zonal flows. Even half-hearted "cold zonality" events, e.g. 18 January 2005, have been known to produce fairly widespread lowland snow across much of Ireland. I say "in FI" because it's not even certain that the Atlantic will break through, though I consider it about 80% likely, after up to 2-3 days of a frontal stalling event.

[johnholmes]

I would be really interested to know what the senior forecasters at the METO have been discussing recently. I wish they would post some summaries of their discussions like NOAA do; after all, we pay them don't we for their excellent service?

and you of course have time in your job to issue an explanation to all and sundry.

Nice idea but get real mate.

If I had to explain, on web site/e mail/blog, why I was expecting such and such I would not have been best impressed during my forecasting career. And neither I suspect would any of my bosses, Met, military or civil, to be posting info to others rather than, in their view, getting on with what I was paid for.

remember, the forecast they issue for we, jo public, are but a tiny fraction of the work they do that pays most of the costs of the Met office.

Civil and military aviation, MOD in general(who does the forecasts for our troops at various points all round the globe), Oil industry, The huge area of the commercial world, just one aspect, all the major chain stores want to know 3-7 days in advance so they know what to stock, the local authorities, road gritting etc, transport, the list if not endless is very long.

John

Edited February 3, 2007 by johnholmes

[Paul]

That's a little unfair.

I would have thought we all play a part on here

Stop moaning about the thread and play a part then...

[J10]

ECM is quite interesting tonight.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-120.GIF?03-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM0-144.GIF?03-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-144.GIF?03-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM0-144.GIF?03-0

[fine wine]

I really am astonished at the way this forum has gone this year.

We have had an incredibly mild Winter the news is full of global warming talk which is very much becoming a major threat to our planet and yet on here it's just endless hopecasting.

My view on the charts is an increasingly dominated atlantic during the week with snow almost impossible away from the East of UK.Why any of the Irish folk on here are even commenting on next week baffles me.It's mild windy and wet for us right through

My view on the high to the East is that it will delay the atlantic onslaught which will not lead to snow just another week of nothing before the atlantic really kicks off

By the way I dont just speak for my location about next week but 80% of mainland UK

I can understand why you say this but when has Cork ever really had any proper sustained cold? its a bit like living on the Scilly Isles and complaining it never gets cold! As far as I can tell, it all still to play for the rest of us and the extreme tip of Irland was never in the firing line anyway.

[johnholmes]

I agree with you PP, seeing as the tax payers are basically paying their salary why does everything have to be shrouded in secrecy. I think it maybe to do with finances as many organisations pay for their views. Whatever anyone says about the gfs they're very generous with their data and deserve a pat on the back for not being so stingy.

no secrecy Nick, see my other reply. Its called time and the cost even more to the taxpayer for that time to tell you and I what they are doing and why.

[Mrs Tattum]

It's a long time since I've said anything at all on here...but it looks to me like we're in for a colder week next week???

I'm not sure we'll see much in the way of snow, though?? :lol:

Pete

[fine wine]

I really am astonished at the way this forum has gone this year.

We have had an incredibly mild Winter the news is full of global warming talk which is very much becoming a major threat to our planet and yet on here it's just endless hopecasting.

My view on the charts is an increasingly dominated atlantic during the week with snow almost impossible away from the East of UK.Why any of the Irish folk on here are even commenting on next week baffles me.It's mild windy and wet for us right through

My view on the high to the East is that it will delay the atlantic onslaught which will not lead to snow just another week of nothing before the atlantic really kicks off

By the way I dont just speak for my location about next week but 80% of mainland UK

[carinthian]

Afternoon,

Looks like our Polar Depression is getting its act together now. Greatest pressure falls now occurring in the Norwegian Sea bteween Jan Mayen and Central Norway. A vicious undercut of Arctic air pushing out of Eastern Greenland. Note Scoresby Sound, temp -11C with gusts to 168 km/h and pressure now rising.

C

Evening,

Further to the above report, wind easing considerable with the passage of the depression. Substained rises now in the interior and North of Greenland. 1040mb should be reached by 06Z.

C

[SP1986]

Maybe JS's outlook is right for East Cork, but most of us come from England, and a significant number come from Scotland and Wales, where snow prospects are somewhat greater.

It's also worth noting that this Atlantic stuff to follow on (in FI) is hardly very mild-looking; cold westerly airflows are traditionally a source of snow for Ireland as the country faces the full force of cold zonal flows. Even half-hearted "cold zonality" events, e.g. 18 January 2005, have been known to produce fairly widespread lowland snow across much of Ireland. I say "in FI" because it's not even certain that the Atlantic will break through, though I consider it about 80% likely, after up to 2-3 days of a frontal stalling event.

im thinking that if the staller event occurred a similar pattern to the last event would occur where inland area would see the sleet and snow whilst the coastal areas would see rain. There's one thing for absolute certain after earlier this months event where there was rain, if such a borderline event come off I would have to concede that the chance of the local area getting anything is very low. In my experience any evolution within cold spells tends to be one of following the pattern of the previous

[Thundery wintry showers]

I can't be certain on this, but I recall reading that the laws of the USA actually force GFS/NOAA to provide more information than the UKMO and ECMWF, which explained why the GFS offers rather more information to the public.

At least we have a fair amount of information from somewhere; if it can't be our own Met Office, it may as well be NOAA. John above has presented some sound reasons for the secrecy.

[Methuselah]

It's a long time since I've said anything at all on here...but it looks to me like we're in for a colder week next week???

I'm not sure we'll see much in the way of snow, though?? :lol:

Pete

Hello all!

[TEITS]

Don't laugh but here is a map i've drawn where I think the greatest risk of snowfall shall be.

Obviously my region is included :lol:

Edited February 3, 2007 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[johnholmes]

And I wish that some of the BBC's highly paid celebs would come and put on a show in my front room. And whilst I'm at it, why doesn't the doctor and all the support staff come to operate on me at home? And why doesn't the cabinet send me an e-mail informing me of their deliberations, and the MPC after their interest rate deliberations? And why on earth do I have to fill in my own tax form, isn't that what HMRC is for?

Quite apart from the rather specious argument that "we pay their wages" (we don't in full, the UKMO is revenue earning) releasing into the public domain all deliberations would presumably be fairly time consuming. Oh, and if they did so where then would the revenue come from. Have you asked Paul to make N-WE free to all?

Finally, given the mindless blather that seems to ensue on here whenever the UKMO get a forecast wrong what possible incentive would there be to opening up to closer examination something that is, in any case, an inexact science? For some of the same reasons that a magician doesn't let you on stage to see the mechanics of his / her act, and more besides, the UKMO can be forgiven for denying us access to every last deliberation.

wonderful SF although no doubt someone will get all uptight about your post.

[Troubleatmill]

Fair enough but the models show an 80% chance of a returning atlantic and all I can see hear is talk of snowfall.

It would be great to discuss possible storm damage for the west flooding potential etc.That's all weather too you know.

It might aswell be renamed snow watch the way things are headed.

Plenty of other interest in the models besides snow

How can you possibly say that JS there has been no mention of snow over the whole winter period IMO , and this is because we have had nothing in the models this winter that has even hinted at snow on a large scale , so to say this forum is becoming like snow watch just because for once there is a chance of snow for some/all/few is a liitle :lol: ! , You can talk about wind & rain if you like , but i for one have done nothing else all winter

[yamkin]

Don't laugh but here is a map i've drawn where I think the greatest risk of snowfall shall be.

Obviously my region is included :lol:

Not a bad DIY snow risk chart!

Very surprised by WIB's comments earlier on.

I think it may be due to the models shifting away from his predictions/forecasts and going for a colder outlook.

Get ready for upgrades with delight. :lol:

Edited February 3, 2007 by yamkin

[Paul]

Hello all!

woohoo, the real Pete is back, welcome back mate

[SP1986]

Don't laugh but here is a map i've drawn where I think the greatest risk of snowfall shall be.

Obviously my region is included

I'd say that pretty much spot on with what I'd also expect in a situation like this. Where snowfall occurs would probably be on a rough line from manchester eastwards (pretty much) with rain further west.

If the potentially scenario occurred then I'd say precentage figures such as these below would apply

Aberdeen: 80%

Edinburgh: 70%

Glasgow: 60%

Carlisle: 60%

Newcastle: 55%

Belfast: 30%

Liverpool: 20%

Manchester: 50%

Leeds: 70%

Bristol: 20%

Birmingham: 50%

Cambridge: 50%

Exeter: 30%

London: 40%

Dublin: 10%

Portsmouth: 10%

Brighton: 5%

These arent actually figures but perceptions of what might happen.

[Snowly does it]

Hello all!

Welcome back PT. Nice to see you posting.

The ECM looked interesting for a battleground - 850s between -4 and -6? So margainality and tenterhooks on the menu on that evolution..

[johnholmes]

Carlisle: 60%

oh dear now look what you have gone and done!

Stephen you will answer all questions on, you guessed it,

'will it snow in Carlisle'

Edited February 3, 2007 by johnholmes

[Cloud 10]

Don't laugh but here is a map i've drawn where I think the greatest risk of snowfall shall be.

Obviously my region is included

That map looks fine to me!

Certainly an interesting week ahead with lots of cold frosty weather for many,and of course the threat of snow later on.

It also seems that every day the return of the atlantic is pushed further back.

[SP1986]

Carlisle: 60%

oh dear now look what you have gone and done!

Well it'll save it being asked right?

it was an informed decision which took a while to come about, a very informed decision (to try and save everyone on the forum)

[kippure]

That map looks fine to me!

Certainly an interesting week ahead with lots of cold frosty weather for many,and of course the threat of snow later on.

It also seems that every day the return of the atlantic is pushed further back.

True ,tonights 18z could be off the wall...since its saturady night and all.