Glimmer of hope model discussion

[nick sussex]

Nice to see theres so much positive energy in the thread this evening!

I'm not a mod but for heavens sake if people don't like the thread no ones got them at gunpoint forcing them to take part! This is supposed to be a happy forum, why does there have to be so much sniping! Now back to the models it all looks very interesting with still no clearcut idea of exactly how the breakdown will take place and the longer term prospects look even more uncertain. Anyway lets just enjoy the model ride and hope it has a happy snowy ending for some people.

[snow_1_important]

Jut for you JS

[tom_f123]

Don't laugh but here is a map i've drawn where I think the greatest risk of snowfall shall be.

Obviously my region is included

i was thinking something more like this

Edited February 3, 2007 by tom_f123

[Stratos Ferric]

Some interest in one of the cannon fodder models the GME.

It looks like the first shortwave misses here but instead we get a scandi high instead!

http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_...2031200_096.gif

http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_...2031200_120.gif

http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_...2031200_144.gif

http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_...2031200_168.gif

The GME is often thought of as the poor mans ECM but if theres one model that normally gives a little hint to the ecm its this one. I wonder what that will show, oh the drama!

I'm not ramping but that 168hr chart is the perfect battle scenario for significant snow, how far east it would come is anyones guess and anyway I just thought I'd throw this into the mix seeing as we have a quiet interlude before the much awaited ECM comes out.

Got to dsiagree with you their Nick. The better prospect is the UKMO plot for +132, with a NW-SE lying front, and colsd air ahead over NE Scotland. This is a localised event as plotted but would give copious snow for high ground in Scotland and the far NE / northern isles. The air on Friday just looks too warm; at best that would be a "leading edge" event, but I stress "at best". Too warm in my view.

I haven't had chance to do anything other than work since my last post, but I'm not very surprised (if a tad disappointed) by the breakdown in the charts over the last 2-3 days. We say it over and over; don't believe sustained cold on the GFS until it's well within t+120h.

As the attachment below shows, the Net-Weather Extra global jet pic shows nicely how the jet core is now furthernorth than projected a couple of days ago, with a loop (albeit a weak one) over Greenland. I've also produced the projection for +132, using the surface + 850 option, to show the potential alignment of fronts (my own additions) against the surface airmass.

[PersianPaladin]

wonderful SF although no doubt someone will get all uptight about your post.

Yes. It was practically dripping with cynical mercilessness.

[TEITS]

That's a safe bet alright

Hope you feeling better Brian

That's a little unfair.

I would have thought we all play a part on here

Trouble is JS you are not considering other members locations when you post your conclusions on the models runs.

You mention atlantic storms which is fair enough but the possible snow event is of far more of interest to a majority of members on here than any potential storms at the moment.

So I have no problem with you concentrating on your location but remember what the weather is likely for you isn't the same for others.

[PersianPaladin]

Got to dsiagree with you their Nick. The better prospect is the UKMO plot for +132, with a NW-SE lying front, and colsd air ahead over NE Scotland. This is a localised event as plotted but would give copious snow for high ground in Scotland and the far NE / northern isles. The air on Friday just looks too warm; at best that would be a "leading edge" event, but I stress "at best". Too warm in my view.

I haven't had chance to do anything other than work since my last post, but I'm not very surprised (if a tad disappointed) by the breakdown in the charts over the last 2-3 days. We say it over and over; don't believe sustained cold on the GFS until it's well within t+120h.

Yes....too warm for most; but F.I. at the moment is T120 as you say. Especially with problematic scenarios such as the one we are faced with at the moment.

EDIT - Hope everybody is aware, don't get your hopes up yet. Situation next week is still very volatile in terms of snow prospects.

Edited February 3, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[karyo]

I am surprised there are not many comments about the ECM tonight. It looks quite promising with the first low tacking southeastwards and allowig an easterly flow!

Karyo

[Snowyowl9]

The ECM looked interesting for a battleground - 850s between -4 and -6? So margainality and tenterhooks on the menu on that evolution..

Yes I like the look of the ECM more southerly tracking lows and colder upper air.

It showed a similar chart the other day but the upper air was 0c.

Meanwhile the JMA looks similar to the GFS at T120.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rjma1201.gif

[kippure]

Its funny that all the tv forecasts ive watched today usualy give pressure charts up to wednesday? Today they went up monday!

There not even sure whats going to happen from tuesday. We saw how things changed so fast 3 sundays ago on the 18z run.

All to play for.

[PersianPaladin]

I am surprised there are not many comments about the ECM tonight. It looks quite promising with the first low tacking southeastwards and allowig an easterly flow!

Karyo

ECM has been performing poorly of late; so I take this latest run with a large wad of salt.

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

Jut for you JS

Snow in Cork City? Goodness

[KTtom]

I'd say that pretty much spot on with what I'd also expect in a situation like this. Where snowfall occurs would probably be on a rough line from manchester eastwards (pretty much) with rain further west.

If the potentially scenario occurred then I'd say precentage figures such as these below would apply

Aberdeen: 80%

Edinburgh: 70%

Glasgow: 60%

Carlisle: 60%

Newcastle: 55%

Belfast: 30%

Liverpool: 20%

Manchester: 50%

Leeds: 70%

Bristol: 20%

Birmingham: 50%

Cambridge: 50%

Exeter: 30%

London: 40%

Dublin: 10%

Portsmouth: 10%

Brighton: 5%

These arent actually figures but perceptions of what might happen.

Anti welsh i see!

[devon lad]

Its funny that all the tv forecasts ive watched today usualy give pressure charts up to wednesday? Today they went up monday!

There not even sure whats going to happen from tuesday. We saw how things changed so fast 3 sundays ago on the 18z run.

All to play for.

Funny kippure

I was amazed that the tv forcast today mentioned the possibility of snow so far ahead of the 'possible' event. Then when I checked cefax I saw snow and sleet for many places in the uk from the Midlands upwards on Wednesday. Remarkably early forcasts from such sources. Worries me - in the past such early warnings have killed off any prospects!

dl

[Matty M]

ECM is good tonight.. still so much can change, and when the low in eastern Canada forms things may change.

Won't be until tomorrow evening until we have a reasonable bearing on what is going to happen.

ECM and UKM are better than the GFS for a change which is good

[karyo]

ECM has been performing poorly of late; so I take this latest run with a large wad of salt.

It has gone from zonal horror to promising, in a matter of 2 days!

[BARRY]

Anti welsh i see!

and anywhere south of exeter

[J10]

Anti welsh i see!

Tenby 5%

Ebbw Vale 35%

Wrexham 25%

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

ECM is good tonight.. still so much can change, and when the low in eastern Canada forms things may change.

Won't be until tomorrow evening until we have a reasonable bearing on what is going to happen.

ECM and UKM are better than the GFS for a change which is good

Yes MattyM, I like the look of the ECM a lot tonight. Especially at 144h where we have a channel low and still some good cold air to the north east. I start to get the feeling that some of the models are starting to show the first shortwave sliding further south. Lets hope the next is to follow

[BristolBlizzard]

I'd say that pretty much spot on with what I'd also expect in a situation like this. Where snowfall occurs would probably be on a rough line from manchester eastwards (pretty much) with rain further west.

If the potentially scenario occurred then I'd say precentage figures such as these below would apply

Aberdeen: 80%

Edinburgh: 70%

Glasgow: 60%

Carlisle: 60%

Newcastle: 55%

Belfast: 30%

Liverpool: 20%

Manchester: 50%

Leeds: 70%

Bristol: 20%

Birmingham: 50%

Cambridge: 50%

Exeter: 30%

London: 40%

Dublin: 10%

Portsmouth: 10%

Brighton: 5%

These arent actually figures but perceptions of what might happen.

So is this going to be snow for east, rain for west scenario? If so bring on summer, I'm already bored with winter which is a change Have fun in the east

BB

[KTtom]

Tenby 5%

Ebbw Vale 35%

Wrexham 25%

Thanx for that ..maybe time for some of us to look further ahead......whilst wishing our northern friends all the best of course........mid month looks good for us westerners by the latest GFS....

[Frosty.]

ECM has been performing poorly of late; so I take this latest run with a large wad of salt.

You might need some of that salt for your garden path soon PP.

[nick sussex]

Its a shame that we cant have a snow event that effects everyone and that way theres not people left feeling shortchanged. Unfortunately I cant remember when we had snow that affected a large area of the country. As ever its a bit like supporting a football team with each side cheering on the synoptics that could deliver them some snow. Perhaps as we have time before the next gfs run we could discuss what synoptics will be good for certain areas, on one proviso that a riot doesnt break out in here!

[grab my graupel]

That's a safe bet alright

Hope you feeling better Brian

Hi J.S. I'm a lot better now thanks and really glad to be back posting again.

By the way I think it's healthy for people to disagree as the forum would be tedious if we all saw

things exactly the same way.

I think that politely disagreeing is the key.

I love it when you have a good moan on this thread it always gives me a laugh.

Brian.

[KTtom]

Its a shame that we cant have a snow event that effects everyone and that way theres not people left feeling shortchanged. Unfortunately I cant remember when we had snow that affected a large area of the country. As ever its a bit like supporting a football team with each side cheering on the synoptics that could deliver them some snow. Perhaps as we have time before the next gfs run we could discuss what synoptics will be good for certain areas, on one proviso that a riot doesnt break out in here!

Jan 08th 1982 please...and please don't bring up footie tonight

Need a scandi high for that, otherwise the sypnotics are spot on!

KTtom

Edited February 3, 2007 by KTtom