Glimmer of hope model discussion

[The PIT]

Well the breakdown is still just outside the reliable time frame. Could do with the Lows being a little further South though. Still time for a few minor mods with will make it a damp squib or somnething of note.

[PersianPaladin]

If you believe the 12z charts for Thursday; the most amount of snow looks set to fall over the northern pennines , eastern Cumbria, Lancashire and Derbyshire. East of the pennines; looks like pittance I'm afraid.

[johnholmes]

I suspect whoever does the Countryfile forecast may have the largest number of Net Wx viewers ever, and possibly the same for the other weather web sites

[grab my graupel]

I know its F.I. (but has been appearing on a number of runs now) with the main 500mb polar airmass re-emerging northwards back towards Greenland from northern europe towards the lower res part of the run; a Scandi-high ridge does not look likely to last. I can only see it gradually ebbing away east or south-east.

I hope this prediction turns out to be wrong.

Don't be upsetting the apple cart P.P.

Yeah I noticed that in F.I. as well, how the block gets shifted, later in the run.

also I don't like the positioning of the Jet either as it appears flatter and slightly more

Northerley than on previous runs in F.I.

Fortunately it's too far out at this stage IMO. and I still expect the block to strengthen.

More runs needed.

[nick sussex]

The gfs and ukmo still disagree on how the breakdown will occur, so still no way at this present time of knowing whose in for some snow.

GFS

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html

UKMO

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

I suppose the area with the greatest margin for error in terms of still getting snow would be northern areas.

[PersianPaladin]

I would be really interested to know what the senior forecasters at the METO have been discussing recently. I wish they would post some summaries of their discussions like NOAA do; after all, we pay them don't we for their excellent service?

[nick sussex]

I would be really interested to know what the senior forecasters at the METO have been discussing recently. I wish they would post some summaries of their discussions like NOAA do; after all, we pay them don't we for their excellent service?

I agree with you PP, seeing as the tax payers are basically paying their salary why does everything have to be shrouded in secrecy. I think it maybe to do with finances as many organisations pay for their views. Whatever anyone says about the gfs they're very generous with their data and deserve a pat on the back for not being so stingy.

[PersianPaladin]

I agree with you PP, seeing as the tax payers are basically paying their salary why does everything have to be shrouded in secrecy. I think it maybe to do with finances as many organisations pay for their views. Whatever anyone says about the gfs they're very generous with their data and deserve a pat on the back for not being so stingy.

Hehe.....its technically an arm of the government, that's why.

[grab my graupel]

I agree with you PP, seeing as the tax payers are basically paying their salary why does everything have to be shrouded in secrecy. I think it maybe to do with finances as many organisations pay for their views. Whatever anyone says about the gfs they're very generous with their data and deserve a pat on the back for not being so stingy.

If the GFS were more stingy with their Data,

Then I might have been able to stop drinking and smoking, and also

might have had some nails left. :lol:

Edited February 3, 2007 by grab my graupels

[nick sussex]

Some interest in one of the cannon fodder models the GME.

It looks like the first shortwave misses here but instead we get a scandi high instead! :lol:

http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_...2031200_096.gif

http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_...2031200_120.gif

http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_...2031200_144.gif

http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_...2031200_168.gif

The GME is often thought of as the poor mans ECM but if theres one model that normally gives a little hint to the ecm its this one. I wonder what that will show, oh the drama!

I'm not ramping but that 168hr chart is the perfect battle scenario for significant snow, how far east it would come is anyones guess and anyway I just thought I'd throw this into the mix seeing as we have a quiet interlude before the much awaited ECM comes out.

Edited February 3, 2007 by nick sussex

[Stuart]

ECM is just starting to come out let hope it good :lol:

Edited February 3, 2007 by Stuart H

[snowingtequila]

Quite so John. That is what they are paid for.

However meteorology and particularly weather forecasting is not an exact science, it is in the main about probabilities and likelyhoods.

As you say the discussion between the forecasters based on the very latest info could be very interesting and lengthy......... and could still go mamaries skyward.

I wonder if their discussions are a bit similar to this model discussion ...

anyway, I have a snaeky feeling as we het nearer the time the fronts will struggle to make much of an inroad against an increasing block to the east, this could mean a lot of snow for north midlands, derbyshire, parts of cheshire. Very interesting to see what the countryfile forcast makes of it all.

[Paul]

Ensembles are in, t850 pretty much on the mean through the run:

For those looking for pressure rises over scandi, plenty of uncertainty and many members taking the pressure higher than the control run:

[January Snowstorm]

I really am astonished at the way this forum has gone this year.

We have had an incredibly mild Winter the news is full of global warming talk which is very much becoming a major threat to our planet and yet on here it's just endless hopecasting.

My view on the charts is an increasingly dominated atlantic during the week with snow almost impossible away from the East of UK.Why any of the Irish folk on here are even commenting on next week baffles me.It's mild windy and wet for us right through

My view on the high to the East is that it will delay the atlantic onslaught which will not lead to snow just another week of nothing before the atlantic really kicks off

By the way I dont just speak for my location about next week but 80% of mainland UK

[Paul]

Lol JS, perhaps you ought to read some of the other threads - namely the ones on environment change and the technical model discussion rather than just this one before making sweeping statements like that.

[J10]

For those wanting to know whether a specific ensemble run will give snow in their area.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_carte...e=14&mode=2

This gives the answer.

The wide variation of outcomes from snow everywhere to restricted to the highest mountains in Scotland is covered and this shows the uncertainty of the situatuion at the moment.

[Weather-history]

I really am astonished at the way this forum has gone this year.

We have had an incredibly mild Winter the news is full of global warming talk which is very much becoming a major threat to our planet and yet on here it's just endless hopecasting.

Its the model thread not the global warming thread :lol:

[John Cox]

Becoming more confident that it won't be fun for us..

Only 2 ENS memeber give snow here :lol:

Hi Matty,

Our Met office said that yesterday morning and they are normally correct, unfortunately.

Please God some of the UK will have some snow and we can delight in their photos

[West is Best]

WIB will be having kittens when he views this run especially after his 7.7 CET prediction :lol:

Tell you what Dave: let's make a deal ok? You don't mention me again on this thread, then I won't feel the need to come on it and defend myself. Deal?

You see,

1. I didn't predict a CET of 7.7C. Are you a subscriber to the theory that we musn't let a fact get in the way of a good story?! (7.4C was my upgrade)

2. Why would anyone but the most schizophrenic model watcher change their monthly forecast on day 3 of the month? Hardly a stable approach.

3. I don't see any reason to change my punt based on the models. The Atlantic will win a non-contest. There is no easterly to fight, just a flacid high pressure. In my view there will probably not be any lying snow south of the Pennines in the next two weeks, and I think many will be surprised by the daytime maxima (some cold nights for a few days though)

4. I counted to ten many many times before posting this response ... I don't particularly want to come on the thread frequently (I sympathise with JS' view a great deal). There's really no need to mention me again ...

[January Snowstorm]

Its the model thread not the global warming thread :lol:

Fair enough but the models show an 80% chance of a returning atlantic and all I can see hear is talk of snowfall.

It would be great to discuss possible storm damage for the west flooding potential etc.That's all weather too you know.

It might aswell be renamed snow watch the way things are headed.

Plenty of other interest in the models besides snow

[grab my graupel]

I really am astonished at the way this forum has gone this year.

We have had an incredibly mild Winter the news is full of global warming talk which is very much becoming a major threat to our planet and yet on here it's just endless hopecasting.

My view on the charts is an increasingly dominated atlantic during the week with snow almost impossible away from the East of UK.Why any of the Irish folk on here are even commenting on next week baffles me.It's mild windy and wet for us right through

My view on the high to the East is that it will delay the atlantic onslaught which will not lead to snow just another week of nothing before the atlantic really kicks off

By the way I dont just speak for my location about next week but 80% of mainland UK

Sorry J.S. I don't see any hopecasting either.

One thing I do know for certain is that someone will be right.

[Stratos Ferric]

I would be really interested to know what the senior forecasters at the METO have been discussing recently. I wish they would post some summaries of their discussions like NOAA do; after all, we pay them don't we for their excellent service?

And I wish that some of the BBC's highly paid celebs would come and put on a show in my front room. And whilst I'm at it, why doesn't the doctor and all the support staff come to operate on me at home? And why doesn't the cabinet send me an e-mail informing me of their deliberations, and the MPC after their interest rate deliberations? And why on earth do I have to fill in my own tax form, isn't that what HMRC is for?

Quite apart from the rather specious argument that "we pay their wages" (we don't in full, the UKMO is revenue earning) releasing into the public domain all deliberations would presumably be fairly time consuming. Oh, and if they did so where then would the revenue come from. Have you asked Paul to make N-WE free to all?

Finally, given the mindless blather that seems to ensue on here whenever the UKMO get a forecast wrong what possible incentive would there be to opening up to closer examination something that is, in any case, an inexact science? For some of the same reasons that a magician doesn't let you on stage to see the mechanics of his / her act, and more besides, the UKMO can be forgiven for denying us access to every last deliberation.

[Matty M]

I really am astonished at the way this forum has gone this year.

We have had an incredibly mild Winter the news is full of global warming talk which is very much becoming a major threat to our planet and yet on here it's just endless hopecasting.

My view on the charts is an increasingly dominated atlantic during the week with snow almost impossible away from the East of UK.Why any of the Irish folk on here are even commenting on next week baffles me.It's mild windy and wet for us right through

My view on the high to the East is that it will delay the atlantic onslaught which will not lead to snow just another week of nothing before the atlantic really kicks off

By the way I dont just speak for my location about next week but 80% of mainland UK

Tiocfaidh Ár Lá

And when it does its going to be payback time! I'll tell ya JS, this ain't out of the woods yet. It is hopecasting to a degree, but a shortwave can just creep to our south and there could be some decent falls of snow.. Nothing is certain past 72hrs at this point. Were going to have to wait until the storm in east canada has formed before having this forecast sorted :lol:

Edited February 3, 2007 by Matty M

[Weather-history]

Fair enough but the models show an 80% chance of a returning atlantic and all I can see hear is talk of snowfall.

It would be great to discuss possible storm damage for the west flooding potential etc.That's all weather too you know.

It might aswell be renamed snow watch the way things are headed.

Plenty of other interest in the models besides snow

It would but since there isn't a threat of flooding or storm damage in the charts at the moment and there is a greater chance of a snowfall than this, I don't see what the problem is?

Edited February 3, 2007 by Mr_Data

[Paul]

JS - I know it's fashionable to ignore me on this thread (as with many of the other team members), but perhaps we should rename it the JS moaning thread as that's all you ever do on it?

There IS a thread on the potential storminess in guess where - the STORMS and extreme weather area, there is a more technical model analysis in this forum area and there is a whole forum area for environment change with an entire thread on yesterdays report. So do me and everyone else a favour, don't post on this thread if it upsets you so much and find a thread relevant to what you want to talk about - it just involves being a little less lazy and clicking your finger on the mouse a few times..