12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?

[Yeti]

I'm stunned by the lack of comment or possible excitiment over the ecm this evening and the shift in the ecm and ukmo over the last day to take the jet further south, the gfs has also backtracked and improved its view of the jet and build of pressure from the east. Am I missing something here! do people know how close we are to a set up that happens perhaps once every few years if you're very lucky!

Maybe I should go back and have another look at the ecm to see if I'm the only one to have access to some of the charts that show the most potential in years!

I couldn't agree more - to summarise briefly, the three main models (GFS, UKMO, ECM) are all great. The GFS 12z shows prolonged and heavy snowfall for the Midlands Northwards, the UKMO chart for Saturday shows strong E'ly winds (that ferry crossing will be interesting) and the ECM shows good long term prospects for the UK.

As I and many others have said, it could now all have to wait until Thursday night itself - glue your eyes to the radar and watch the track of the low. How far North will it reach? This could make all the difference.

[The PIT]

I'm wondering when the Meto will feel confident enough to say theres going to be Snow around. Tuesday night ???? Wedesday night???? I suppose if UKMO and GFS and ECM agree over night they may go for it.

[kold weather]

Iceberg, raw UKMO is intresting, indeed it does hint at light snow on Wednesday however the GFS is keen to drag this feature into central France and so are the ensembles so clearly one of those models is going to have to back down. Thursday looks stunning for the Midlands northwards, can't say how severe that set-up could be on Thursday even at low levels, with height could be quite a stunnigly snowy day, such set-ups have given huge snowfalls to some however you do make a point and its one I noted in my last post the models can take these types of systems too far north, not always but its worth keeping a close eye just in case.

Nick, the ECM is indeed good, set-up at 144-168hrs way to omild for nearly all bar prehaps far n.Scotland, tohugh I'd guess temps would still be rather cold!

Longer term is extremely intresting that scadi high is really trying to push eastwards, mighty close but probably just a touch too far east, tohugh looking at it it probably wouldn't be that cold anyway.

What intrests me is exactly how mild it will get once this set-up breaks down, looking at the set-up from the ensembles it doesn't strike me as a set-up that is much above average, if in fact at all above, could well be quite an average zonal set-up, which hasn't been common recently!

Edited February 5, 2007 by kold weather

[Long haul to mild]

I'm stunned by the lack of comment or possible excitiment over the ecm this evening and the shift in the ecm and ukmo over the last day to take the jet further south, the gfs has also backtracked and improved its view of the jet and build of pressure from the east. Am I missing something here! do people know how close we are to a set up that happens perhaps once every few years if you're very lucky!

Maybe I should go back and have another look at the ecm to see if I'm the only one to have access to some of the charts that show the most potential in years!

See what you mean Nick, the 216 chart is really close to something special. Of course, being the ECM it has to go and blow it all away and reintroduce the Atlantic at 240, but plenty of opportunities for cold on those charts.

ECM 216

[andy_leics22]

Hope so, with such a good ukmo ..there hasnt been much ramping......mmmmm.

I'm glad theres not much ramping yet mate, I am getting slightly excited at this 12z chart because with me living in the east midlands this could get very interesting. But the reason i;m glad theres not much ramping yet is because the way the charts keep changing with every run, even so close to the event it is time for us to be cautious until around Wednesday... Then we can start to either ramp or be annoyed. The 06z for example showed quite a different track of the PPN and showed milder air moving in faster than the 12z so who knows...maybe the 18z will go back to what the 06z run shows, hope not though!

Edited February 5, 2007 by andy_leics22

[Stephen W]

I'm stunned by the lack of comment or possible excitiment over the ecm this evening and the shift in the ecm and ukmo over the last day to take the jet further south, the gfs has also backtracked and improved its view of the jet and build of pressure from the east. Am I missing something here! do people know how close we are to a set up that happens perhaps once every few years if you're very lucky!

Maybe I should go back and have another look at the ecm to see if I'm the only one to have access to some of the charts that show the most potential in years!

Hi Nick

Where are you looking - i can't get the charts on wetterzentrale but I have looked at the Metociel chart and yes I can see the potential with height rises to the north east. I assume that's what you mean? Leading to an easterly blast? Suppose with FI being so short term at the moment - it's difficult to get excited about potentially dream charts in deep FI - sorry if that sounds a bit negative. Love to see something evolve from this though. Also depends on how strong the atlantic fires up over the next week?

Edited February 5, 2007 by Stephen W

[grab my graupel]

I'm stunned by the lack of comment or possible excitiment over the ecm this evening and the shift in the ecm and ukmo over the last day to take the jet further south, the gfs has also backtracked and improved its view of the jet and build of pressure from the east. Am I missing something here! do people know how close we are to a set up that happens perhaps once every few years if you're very lucky!

Maybe I should go back and have another look at the ecm to see if I'm the only one to have access to some of the charts that show the most potential in years!

No I agree with you Nick,

This is the sort of thing we have been looking for all winter.

Some real hight rises with the potential to deliver a proper prolonged cold spell.

and to see agreement between the major models for this, you have got to be excited.

I couldn't care less if it snows this week now.

Eyes to the North and the East I think.

[Arrows]

when you say midlands north, east anglia is in line with the midlands, sort of

[shuggee]

Even the ECM at T+192 is of interest:

Also - don't forget the now essential viewing that is the Model Comparison page(s):

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=modelcomp;sess=

[WINTRY WALES]

I couldn't agree more - to summarise briefly, the three main models (GFS, UKMO, ECM) are all great. The GFS 12z shows prolonged and heavy snowfall for the Midlands Northwards, the UKMO chart for Saturday shows strong E'ly winds (that ferry crossing will be interesting) and the ECM shows good long term prospects for the UK.

As I and many others have said, it could now all have to wait until Thursday night itself - glue your eyes to the radar and watch the track of the low. How far North will it reach? This could make all the difference.

Hi Yeti

Do you think theres any chance for snow for any of us south of the midlands. Especially those at any elavation. Birmingham is 45 mins away from me and id be gutted if i missed out by a whisker

[Thundery wintry showers]

GFS looks okay for cold/snow lovers now, but certainly not a patch on UKMO or ECMWF, both of which are upgrades relative to their 00Z runs, and even more especially yesterday's runs. I'd say the Euro models at 12Z are every bit as potent as the GFS 12Z yesterday.

[The Eagle]

Nick, if this was the beginning of Winter - yes we would probrably be looking at the possibilities that far ahead but for now I think most want to concentrate on Wednesday and particularly Thursday - 72 hrs out. With so much uncertainty till then I would not dream of looking 200hrs tbh.

[Yeti]

I'm glad theres not much ramping yet mate, I am getting slightly excited at this 12z chart because with me living in the east midlands this could get very interesting. But the reason i;m glad theres not much ramping yet is because the way the charts keep changing with every run, even so close to the event it is time for us to be cautious until around Wednesday... Then we can start to either ramp or be annoyed. The 06z for example showed quite a different track of the PPN and showed milder air moving in faster than the 12z so who knows...maybe the 18z will go back to what the 06z run shows, hope not though!

It's only human nature to be excited, but the main thing I am worried about is the low being progged too far north, because I want my snow on Thursday night! It would be typical, wouldn't it, to see the low crash into the channel, pasting the S coast and leaving us dry , after all the models have suggested it going further N!

Is it very often that the lows are progged to far N? Or has there been more reliability in recent times?

Remember that Everton is going for snow though, so if he's saying it it's got to happen!

[West is Best]

lol, where is WIB? and all of his little fans praising him on a correct forecast (before its even happened.)

Its great when the mild rampers get caught out!

Hello Jed. I've been at work all day getting inducted into my new job. Personally I gain no satisfaction if anyone is 'caught out'. This is supposed to be a fun forum, and most of us are amateurs, so 'getting caught out' doesn't really come into it. When the pros get caught out it makes me feel extremely sorry for them, because they have to put their heads above the parapet. I have immense respect for those who dare to do that, and conversely think it's a little cowardly to snipe at them (I am heartily sick and tired of people having a go at Everton. It's getting sickening.)

Welly boot: Of course I think you can get a channel low: you can have one any day of the year. Whether it brings snow is a different issue.

The models are in a state of great confusion. When this happened in the good 'ol days it nearly always in my memory led to downgrades, often very close to the event. But I may be wrong. At the moment I am happy to stick with my suggestion that there will not be lying snow in England south of the Pennines. Those words are chosen carefully, and take account of the Met Office official definition of lying snow. They also mean frontal snow is quite possible for a time.

(PS - I really don't think I'm a mild ramper. It's a strange term. I love snow, which is why I adore Canada. I just happen to think we're on a knife-edge at the best of times in this country. This isn't quite the best of times - I'd like much deeper cold pooling, and much lower upper air temps)

Edited February 5, 2007 by West is Best

[Supercell]

The NW European zoom charts for the 12z GFS run on Wetterzentrale display very good prospects of significant snowfall for northern England (Midlands a close call - perhaps the wrong side of marginal, although irrelevant at this distance anyway).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs663.gif - Precip Thurs 06 hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs693.gif - Precip Thurs 09 hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs723.gif - Precip Thurs 12 hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs753.gif - Precip Thurs 15 hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs662.gif - 850 Temps Thurs 06 hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs692.gif - 850 Temps Thurs 09 hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs722.gif - 850 Temps Thurs 12 hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs752.gif - 850 Temps Thurs 15 hrs

Certainly rampworthy for those in northern England. Some possibilities for us Midlanders.

[Iceberg]

Latest USAF fax models also support snow south of the M4 on Wednessday, tbh the local meto would win my support for an accurate forecast 48hrs out. Certainly above GFS.

[grab my graupel]

Nick, if this was the beginning of Winter - yes we would probrably be looking at the possibilities that far ahead but for now I think most want to concentrate on Wednesday and particularly Thursday - 72 hrs out. With so much uncertainty till then I would not dream of looking 200hrs tbh.

This isn't just a one off though Darkman.

I know you were online when TEITS mentioned this recently, and posted some

awesome charts from the ensembles showing a very similar scenario.

Also I know it was deep into F.I but the rises have appeared on the models aswell.

I nearly posted some postage stamps thismorning that caught my eye.

I wish I had now.

[andy_leics22]

It's only human nature to be excited, but the main thing I am worried about is the low being progged too far north, because I want my snow on Thursday night! It would be typical, wouldn't it, to see the low crash into the channel, pasting the S coast and leaving us dry , after all the models have suggested it going further N!

Is it very often that the lows are progged to far N? Or has there been more reliability in recent times?

Remember that Everton is going for snow though, so if he's saying it it's got to happen!

Oh yes it is I admit I am secretly a bit excited with the 12z but I wont think its a dead cert yet because it was only 6 hours ago that i was getting upset about the 06z run saying it was almost game over! So if the 18z keeps the same trend as the 12z I will get slightly more excited, but i wouldnt be surprised if it changed the position of the low, PPN and upper air temps to be honest.

Like you say, it would be typical for it to miss us after we get excited about it! LOL! Well I tell ya what, I haven't seen Everton Fox forecast snowy weather before on his monthly outlook so I think I might have to savour this day Just our luck if he forecast snow and it ended up not happening

Edited February 5, 2007 by andy_leics22

[Yeti]

Hi Yeti

Do you think theres any chance for snow for any of us south of the midlands. Especially those at any elavation. Birmingham is 45 mins away from me and id be gutted if i missed out by a whisker

I wouldn't dare predict anything. It all depends how far S the low goes and how intense the low is, particularly in a marginal setup like this.

[nick sussex]

For those worried about the gfs this evening it has been totally slated by NOAA this evening, the gfs , ecm and gem operational runs have been criticized but the gfs comes in for the most slating and in line with my earlier thoughts its been too progressive and especially with breaking down the east pacific ridge.

This is good news if you want to see the ukmo verify, criticisms also of the ecm just to be fair and unbiased although the criticism here is for the early part of the run, the key here is that gfs has got the important east pacific ridge all wrong.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[MKN]

The NW European zoom charts for the 12z GFS run on Wetterzentrale display very good prospects of significant snowfall for northern England (Midlands a close call - perhaps the wrong side of marginal, although irrelevant at this distance anyway).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs663.gif - Precip Thurs 06 hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs693.gif - Precip Thurs 09 hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs723.gif - Precip Thurs 12 hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs753.gif - Precip Thurs 15 hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs662.gif - 850 Temps Thurs 06 hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs692.gif - 850 Temps Thurs 09 hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs722.gif - 850 Temps Thurs 12 hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs752.gif - 850 Temps Thurs 15 hrs

Certainly rampworthy for those in northern England. Some possibilities for us Midlanders.

Its interesting how when the low pressure moves up through the midlands the -5 850s soon shoot north but then kind of grind to a halt and much of central england then remains in -3 850s throughtout, rather than carrying on increasing towards -2, -1 850's etc.

[nick sussex]

Theres no point discussing the gfs 12hrs run, its a dead duck! basically given the discussions at NOAA they're likely to ditch it as its got so much wrong.

[Supercell]

Its interesting how when the low pressure moves up through the midlands the -5 850s soon shoot north but then kind of grind to a halt and much of central england then remains in -3 850s throughtout, rather than carrying on increasing towards -2, -1 850's etc.

We can put all these finer, but crucial, details down to huge uncertainty with the exact track of the low. We could still be struggling to determine the areas likely to see snow the night before. I have seen drastic changes ftom T +12 hrs to T +6 hrs in a past similar event.

Hi Nick, GFS is dire at plotting the track of these lows (as seen previously). I would expect more erratic changes. No firm track until T +6hrs.

Edited February 5, 2007 by Supercell

[grab my graupel]

Theres no point discussing the gfs 12hrs run, its a dead duck! basically given the discussions at NOAA they're likely to ditch it as its got so much wrong.

Oh wonderful

Could you ask them to have the courtesy to let us know earlier next time

before we start discussing it.

[Michael Winston]

If you live in Dublin; don't expect snow unless your above 800 feet: -

But it'll be fantastic up in the Dublin Hills. A lovely part of the world made all the lovelier by snow.

Regards,

Mike.