12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?

[Jude_foster]

Well Jude I would always follow the euro models for events upto 72hrs more especially the ukmo as they should really have a better idea of small scale developments for this side of the atlantic, because the pattern is on a knife edge the smallest detail will make a big difference.

I'm sure this has been said already but the ukmo is excellent for northern areas this evening.

Do you mean Southern areas?

[johnholmes]

at the end of the day folks this real cold has been forecast for the 7th of feb since the last "cold snap" at the middle end of january and people kept saying it was f1 to look that far.. it just disappeared for a little while before reforming. credit for the gfs on this one.

yes as I've said a number of times it can be stunnugly accurate, but you have to carefully watch for a trend, and then not be put off if the trend disapperas now and then.

For instance, is this 12z part of the trend or was the 00 and 06z runs part of a tredn.

the two differing versions make it uncertain which to follow.

In that sense I am talking about what may really happen not what anyone may want to happen.

John

[mushymanrob]

I thought you said earlier that you didn't mind the idea of a good dumping, but a half-hearted slush event would be unwelcome? The UKMO seems to indicate the former while GFS is closer to the latter.

i was being frivolous.... yes id like a decent dumping, but im far from convinced that this 1 chart will be the actual one that transpires.

[Matt Jones]

Well we really don't know what's going to happen this week, which makes weather watching all the more fun.

Earlier on we had broken biscuits and spilt hot chocolate.

[Harsh Climate]

sorry i disagree that hes a mild ramper... ive never seen him, or anyone ramp up mild weather as much as the snow lovers ramp up snow.... ok so snow is a rare event, but ramping is ramping.

imho west posts honestly, he says what he sees and not what he wants to see.

Thats fair enough but its frustrating seeing people go for mild everytime then act smug everytime there correct, when all there forecasts are based on is basically 'weather lore'.There right because mild wins nearly everytime..

Yet when theres a great chance of cold they still go aggainst the concensus (go on ther own cos they know there likely to be right and take great credit for goin on it alone... But only this time it looks as if the cold could win through and bite those on the azz...

[Snowly does it]

OK, I leave you lot for a day and all hell breaks loose! lol

What the hell is going on?!

This is like trying to pick out the grey hair on Des Lynam's noggin.

Fabulous UKMO, GFS being a moody bear all day and ECM we await.

If ECM trends to UKMO, watch the GFS 18z to see if it backtracks further.

Right now I am not hopeful of snow later in the week, but I might just get a little overnight so we'll see!

[nick sussex]

GFS esembles comeing out soon. You'd just ahve to laugh if its a massive outlier...

The gfs is all over the place as its overdone the energy coming off the PV and been much too progressive, the most consistent model by far during the last few days has been the ukmo. I hope the ukmo verifies even though its not great for my region but sensational for more northern areas, good luck up there and lets hope to see some good snow pics, still chances of some snow further south if that shallow feature doesnt head too far south into wednesday, of course theres room for changes either way especially as pressure now looks to build again to the north and ne.

Edited February 5, 2007 by nick sussex

[johnholmes]

JOhn as you can probably tell I've spent the last 3 winters just watching and learning. I'm afraid I don't have anywhere near the expertise to do that although of course I would love to help!

keep learning and watching is my advice. You must know the more reliable posters rather than those who have a bias one way or another, be it cold or mild.

As to your original question, no we do not have that although its possible Ian(TWS) has done some stats on his own stats of which model does what and when. I suspect not though as what he does takes a lot of time as it is.

[The Eagle]

NOGAPS is out and supprise, supprise - it is very similar to the GFS. I really think the ECM will be make or break tonight. If its like the GFS then the game is practically up. If its like the UKMO then good but tremendous uncertainty still remains. So either way confusion will be there till tomorrow at least.

[Harsh Climate]

The gfs is all over the place and as its overdone the energy coming off the PV and been much too progressive, the most consistent model by far during the last few days has been the ukmo. I hope the ukmo verifies even though its not great for my region but sensational for more northern areas, good luck up there and lets hope to see some good snow pics, still chances of some snow further south, still room for changes either way especially as pressure now looks to build again to the north and ne.

Thank you and keep those great forecasts goin

good luck to you guys down south two, I just feel that either the south or the north is guna mis-out somewhat..

I

[Optimus Prime]

Isn't the UKMO chart the least accurate normally? Or does that change seeing as it's showing a good snowy spell of weather?

The UKMO 120 hr chart is stunning and it would produce something quite special (and less marginal for the southern most areas) compared to Thursdays wintryness potential.

I'm gonna ditch the UKMO solution and go for the atlantic rolling back in after some sleet/snow. But the airmass should stay fairly cold so no mild weather for a while yet.

[MisfitDog3]

" then the game is practically up". It's not though is it?!! The models are so mobile at the moment nothing is set up to 12 hours out in reality. The changes seen today alone have been huge. It's all to play for and will remain so for the time being....

[johnholmes]

how you can say the 'game is up' if that happens is beyond me.

ALL the models show a certain amount of inconsistency, beyond Wednesday, so there is nothing certain yet whatever any model says this evening.

I do tend to believe the Met O Fax chart as the best indicator out to T+96. However, do remember that each chart is updated at different times and make sure you are viewing the latest edition.

John

Edited February 5, 2007 by johnholmes

[Snowyowl9]

UKMO 12z for 120 hr

Is this right?

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW120-21.GIF

Though I was seeing things for a minute.

I`ll say Chart of the year for this though

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Thats fair enough but its frustrating seeing people go for mild everytime then act smug everytime there correct, when all there forecasts are based on is basically 'weather lore'.There right because mild wins nearly everytime..

Yet when theres a great chance of cold they still go aggainst the concensus (go on ther own cos they know there likely to be right and take great credit for goin on it alone... But only this time it looks as if the cold could win through and bite those on the azz...

A few things to politely request:

1) This is the model discussion, so please, keep on topic

2) WiB is not a 'mild ramper', and by no means does he go around acting smug (and please, can we stop using him as an example, to which the example used, is not correct)

3) Can we please remove this 'Mild Ramper' jibberish...its just plain silly

And back to the models...

[wellington boot]

sorry i disagree that hes a mild ramper... ive never seen him, or anyone ramp up mild weather as much as the snow lovers ramp up snow.... ok so snow is a rare event, but ramping is ramping.

imho west posts honestly, he says what he sees and not what he wants to see.

I have great respect for WIB, because plenty of the time he backs up everything he says and makes good sense. When i say he's a mild ramper though, i mean that he always goes for mild, even when the signs point to cold. He certainly is as bad in terms of ramping as some of the cold lovers, it's just less obvious because mild is less dramatic than cold, and he more often turns out right, because we happen to live in the UK. Fact is though, even when charts show cold, he'll find evidence that it will actually be mild (and vice versa of course for many others who support cold). If the run is an outlier, hell use that, and if its in the cluster, hell say you should follow the outliers, because theyre the ones which pick up the trends.

Anyway, despite this, most of the time, as i say, i have great respect for him and his posts.

sorry only just seen your posts above. i should point out though that i am very respectful of him as i write about him, and also i dont talk about him or anyone being smug. i believe my post is fair, respectful and closes the discussion

Edited February 5, 2007 by wellington boot

[Harsh Climate]

A few things to politely request:

1) This is the model discussion, so please, keep on topic

2) WiB is not a 'mild ramper', and by no means does he go around acting smug (and please, can we stop using him as an example, to which the example used, is not correct)

3) Can we please remove this 'Mild Ramper' jibberish...its just plain silly

And back to the models...

ok sorry, I might have got a little carried away..

[johnholmes]

how about this from the free Net Wx list of goodies

[Optimus Prime]

Lol, John 2cm of snow. Hardly worth even getting a car scraper out for that.

[The Eagle]

how you can say the 'game is up' if that happens is beyond me.

ALL the models show a certain amount of inconsistency, beyond Wednesday, so there is nothing certain yet whatever any model says this evening.

I do tend to believe the Met O Fax chart as the best indicator out to T+96. However, do remember that each chart is updated at different times and make sure you are viewing the latest edition.

John

Well, traditionally I always thought the ECM was really the best model for Europe. Thats my opinion. The UKMO use the ECM too along with most countries in Europe. So I think its very important thats its not like the GFS tonight. That would leave the UKMO well out on its own.

[nick sussex]

Isn't the UKMO chart the least accurate normally? Or does that change seeing as it's showing a good snowy spell of weather?

The UKMO 120 hr chart is stunning and it would produce something quite special (and less marginal for the southern most areas) compared to Thursdays wintryness potential.

I'm gonna ditch the UKMO solution and go for the atlantic rolling back in after some sleet/snow. But the airmass should stay fairly cold so no mild weather for a while yet.

Back the form horse or the model thats showed the most consistency which has been the ukmo over the last few days, the reason for so much trauma in here is the over reliance on the gfs which throws up four runs a day and sends people hurtling towards the prozac cabinet far too often.

This is a common gripe of mine that this model thread ends up being the gfs discussion thread and the other models are often cast aside. The gfs is not fallible as we've all seen over the last few days, anyway lets hope the ecm keeps the upbeat mood going.

[wellington boot]

how about this from the free Net Wx list of goodies

hmm id prefer more than 2-3 cms. We can do better than that! ireland gets a good pasting though

Edited February 5, 2007 by CatchMyDrift
Chopped quote to save space

[mushymanrob]

actually, if that ukmo 120 chart came off, it would also be likely that this cold spell would extend for several days at least... we might not be looking at a one chance snow event but several as the mild tries again to push back in...

[johnholmes]

you might well PREFER more the likelyhood of getting it in my view is zilch.

[TEITS]

Isn't the UKMO chart the least accurate normally? Or does that change seeing as it's showing a good snowy spell of weather?

The UKMO 120 hr chart is stunning and it would produce something quite special (and less marginal for the southern most areas) compared to Thursdays wintryness potential.

I'm gonna ditch the UKMO solution and go for the atlantic rolling back in after some sleet/snow. But the airmass should stay fairly cold so no mild weather for a while yet.

Not really although the +144 can sometimes be rather unreliable.

The UKMO has been the star model this winter and if you have noticed the Met O have stuck with the raw data quiet often this winter despite the ECM having other ideas.Im not just saying this because of tonights output because i've been saying before the cold spell.

Anyone spotting the pattern yet?

The GFS begins it all with a rather weak surface HP over Scandi the JMA of all models comes up with HP building to our NE and then the UKMO continues with this trend as shown on tonights 12Z. Seems to me the models are underestimating heights to our NE and what was a certain pattern of the Atlantic returning on wed now shows heights continuing to our NE even at +144.