12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?

[Yeti]

Paul Hudson has suggested snow for the East of my region for Wednesday and maybe Snowfalls

for all of my region for Thursday and Friday. :blink:

Oooh I would love to head up to the Dales on Friday morning if this comes off... Nothing marginal about it up there!

Whilst according to the 12z areas N of Sheffield do not look too marginal, it looks like the midlands could still see the snow because of the intensity of the low (this is obviously no snow shower event). If this happens, would the snow settle in the Midlands? It only takes the ground temp to be 2c, then for a bit of unsettled snow to leave water around, and it can ruin everything...

I don't think there will be a clear idea at all until the night itself, with watching lamp posts/headlights/radar.

[Sawel]

ECM is a good run for Scotland.

UKMO is better up to 120 hrs (one of the best charts I've seen for here) but after this, ECM looks pretty nice.

Obviously a lot of chopping and changing still to come and FI must be at an all time low of about +06 hrs. :blink:

At last the models are in A BIT more agreement than they were this time yesterday.

[snowingtequila]

Can we stick to discussing the models in this the appropriately titled 'Model discussion' please.

If you want to talk about what's being said on the telly or on the internet or even in Razzle please go over to the Media Section and post in this thread:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36077

Thank you :blink:

I posted my comment about the BBC forecast because I thought it relevant to the model discussion I was interested in which model etc had been used for this latest forecast. I don't particularly like having my post removed so quickly although i understand, when a post remains that tells us to stop model watching altogether because it is a waste of time!

[wellington boot]

sorry its just that i wished that the charts were not so inaccurate. if only they were only released T-60hours to avoid disappointment all around.

You just dont get it guitarnutter. We enjoy analysing the charts far out. We are aware of their innaccuracies. We enjoy looking at them all the same. You dont need to be concerned about us being disappointed. We understand how watching the models goes. The discussion of the models is a hobby for many of us

[Thundery wintry showers]

The old phrase "modern winter" springs to mind here- in the 1980s it was often a safe bet that the lows would track further south than the models are showing, but these days the synoptic patterns have shifted a bit, probably at least partly due to changed global temperatures and SSTs. Thus we are pretty much in uncharted times at the moment- though it's worth noting that in February/March 2005 and 2006 the models frequently tried to take lows too far north, once the southerly tracking jet got underway.

I think the most likely scenario is somewhere between the UKMO and the GFS 12Z- probably along the lines of what ECMWF is showing now.

[grab my graupel]

Oooh I would love to head up to the Dales on Friday morning if this comes off... Nothing marginal about it up there!

Whilst according to the 12z areas N of Sheffield do not look too marginal, it looks like the midlands could still see the snow because of the intensity of the low (this is obviously no snow shower event). If this happens, would the snow settle in the Midlands? It only takes the ground temp to be 2c, then for a bit of unsettled snow to leave water around, and it can ruin everything...

I don't think there will be a clear idea at all until the night itself, with watching lamp posts/headlights/radar.

Yes I suppose I can be more laid back about the current situation,

as it looks like I could do quite well from this setup again, as I usually do.

I did ok from the last cold spell.

I would rather see a much more evenly spread distribution than being currently

modeled.

[Yellowbelly]

The gfs is not fallible

Oh yes it is !

[BARRY]

The fax chart is out for thursday and because of the confusion this is our most reliable chart at the moment and i've drawn who would get snow/rain.

just got in seen teits post now i am depressed :blink:

[MKN]

well i think a couple of hours of heavy snow will be something a bit exciting for most on here anyway considering 24th jan's 2cm brought the most snow here in 3 years, and thats likely for a large part of the country as long as your up early, only a couple of upgrades over the next 24 hours and we could have an excellent set up. somewhere between ukmo and gfs would surely be a great scenario tws??

[grab my graupel]

You just dont get it guitarnutter. We enjoy analysing the charts far out. We are aware of their innaccuracies. We enjoy looking at them all the same. You dont need to be concerned about us being disappointed. We understand how watching the models goes. The discussion of the models is a hobby for many of us

W.B.

I completely agree with you!

But can't we just drop this now, and delete the post or something,

Just forget it mate, and carry on your good work of discussing the models.

Brian :blink:

[Snowyowl9]

how about this from the free Net Wx list of goodies

That does indeed show alot of snowfall on that chart much like last march showed on those snowcharts before the event.

The fax chart is out for thursday and because of the confusion this is our most reliable chart at the moment and i've drawn who would get snow/rain.

That looks perfect,height asl will help alot in this situation too.

All of which looks very uncertain indeed.

[nick sussex]

The ecm this evening is close to one of the best set ups seen in the uk for years! if people dont get excited about the ecm this evening then they've obviously been living in canada! of course this is in the longer term output but if this trend continues to take the jet south and build pressure from russia then we could be close to something very special.

[Yeti]

well i think a couple of hours of heavy snow will be something a bit exciting for most on here anyway considering 24th jan's 2cm brought the most snow here in 3 years, and thats likely for a large part of the country as long as your up early, only a couple of upgrades over the next 24 hours and we could have an excellent set up. somewhere between ukmo and gfs would surely be a great scenario tws??

Well I'd be happy with the GFS although obviously others in the south wouldn't due to the more marginal setup.

If that UKMO chart does come off then we may find it very tough driving to Hull on Saturday to catch the ferry! High risk of snow showers on that chart, and just imagine the ferry crossing with a choppy East wind like that! I can't imagine that sailing across the North Sea in those conditions promises to be a good experience.

[Matt Jones]

The ecm this evening is close to one of the best set ups seen in the uk for years! if people dont get excited about the ecm this evening then they've obviously been living in canada! of course this is in the longer term output but if this trend continues to take the jet south and build pressure from russia then we could be close to something very special.

Yes close, but just doesn't quite come off, just yet anyway.

[kold weather]

The really big unknown with this set-up is just how much cold there will be at lower elvels of the atmopshere, say upto 925mbs. The colder it is the greater the chance of the snow lasting longer and we haven't relaly any clue about how quickly this will shift as the mild stuff arrives, as the only things we have is the skew-T charts to really gauge how the models are progging the lower part of the atmopshere.

nick, ECM is good indeed, esp for those in N.England/Scotland there could be a reall prolonged snow set-up that could easily give numerous inches if it holds however its not nearly so good south of there, though even in the south there'd be likely some snow for a time as the band comes in.

Wirth noting that as Ian said earlier, previous set-ups like this have trended slightly further south as the timeframe got closer, because the models sometimes under-do the heights, esp over polar regions due to less information and data from that region and so the set-ups can tend to end up slightly more supressed then expected, usually not by much but obviously that can make a difference, will it be true this time, very hard call to make but probably not, though nature does what it wants usually anyway!

Don't be suprised if we get a advanced warning very soon about heavy snow, main risk Midlands northwards but also a note for the south Wednesday morning just in case would be my bet. Certainly going to be intresting to see how this pans out, could be very snowy for some lucky people!

Edited February 5, 2007 by kold weather

[Yeti]

The ecm this evening is close to one of the best set ups seen in the uk for years! if people dont get excited about the ecm this evening then they've obviously been living in canada! of course this is in the longer term output but if this trend continues to take the jet south and build pressure from russia then we could be close to something very special.

It certainly is something to get excited about! Blocking to the NE for the whole run!

I feel guilty getting this excited, but there is a potentially superb event in a close timeframe! With agreement beginning to show between the 3 big models. We're getting a bit closer...

And I'm getting carried away again! :blink:

[andy_leics22]

Thats more like it from the 12z! the 06z wasnt a good run but this 12z is a maginificent run for southern areas and the midlands northwards on thursday, if it stays this way it could get very interesting indeed!

Edited February 5, 2007 by andy_leics22

[nick sussex]

I'm stunned by the lack of comment or possible excitiment over the ecm this evening and the shift in the ecm and ukmo over the last day to take the jet further south, the gfs has also backtracked and improved its view of the jet and build of pressure from the east. Am I missing something here! do people know how close we are to a set up that happens perhaps once every few years if you're very lucky!

Maybe I should go back and have another look at the ecm to see if I'm the only one to have access to some of the charts that show the most potential in years!

[Iceberg]

As has already been said meto is a very good mid distance chart, ECM better in the long run (although I would take this with a lot of caution).

Concentrating on the raw Meto data.

Wed is the best day in the south with some light snow around below the M4, Thursday thicknesses are are a touch high along with Dp's a snow cover on Wed will help though.

Still looks fantastic for the midlands northwards, word of caution again though the precip might not get far enough north (the LP take an even more southerly track in which case the south downs and cotswalds will be limit of the snow.

[forestpagan]

*Cries*

*sound of sobbing, wailing, gnashing of teeth* :blink: - not even the channel low will save us???? oh pleeeaaasse.....

[Theresnoway]

I'm stunned by the lack of comment or possible excitiment over the ecm this evening and the shift in the ecm and ukmo over the last day to take the jet further south, the gfs has also backtracked and improved its view of the jet and build of pressure from the east. Am I missing something here! do people know how close we are to a set up that happens perhaps once every few years if you're very lucky!

Maybe I should go back and have another look at the ecm to see if I'm the only one to have access to some of the charts that show the most potential in years!

Is it something to do with Bitten, Twice, Shy.....

[Michael Winston]

The fax chart is out for thursday and because of the confusion this is our most reliable chart at the moment and i've drawn who would get snow/rain.

TEITS: that 'battle line' looks suspiciously close to Birmingham!! :blink: Thanks for the info: mucho apreciato amigo!!

Regards,

Mike.

[grab my graupel]

It certainly is something to get excited about! Blocking to the NE for the whole run!

I feel guilty getting this excited, but there is a potentially superb event in a close timeframe! With agreement beginning to show between the 3 big models. We're getting a bit closer...

And I'm getting carried away again! :blink:

I don't think you are getting carried away Yeti.

I think the possibilities are superb, certainly some interesting time ahead.

This winter owes us.

Could this be pay back time

[nick sussex]

Is it something to do with Bitten, Twice, Shy.....

This just proves my point, if the gfs had shown the set up the ecm has from 144hrs onwards then this place would be bedlam but because its not the gfs everyones like whatever! :blink:

[kippure]

I don't think you are getting carried away Yeti.

I think the possibilities are superb, certainly some interesting time ahead.

This winter owes us.

Could this be pay back time

Hope so, with such a good ukmo ..there hasnt been much ramping......mmmmm.