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Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports - (Summer 2007)

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ribster Aficionado

ribster

Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
Posted
For 90% of Earth's history, it has been ice free. Ice ages depend upon the state of our orbit round the Sun ( changes in eccentricity) but also, crucially, plate tectonics ( continental drift, position of continents).

If it gets warm enough, the ice will melt, if it gets cold again, the ice will reform. If positive feedbacks were dominant, we would either be gripped in ice or in a runaway warming. Neither is the case, indicating that negative feedbacks dominate.Good news.

It amuses me when people talk about "the next ice age" not realising that we are actually in one ! The true definition of an ice age is the existence of ice anywhere on the planet , because Earth has for so much of it's life , been ice-free.

Hi Mr. Sleet, thanks I didn't know that, for me it puts current debates in perspective.

Also nice to see developments in Svalbard :lol:

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted
Hi,

Todays Mid-Day upper air soundings show the cold pool over Svalbard has temperature of -10.3C at 850 hpa level. Sea Level temperature at bottom of Zeppelin Mt recorded at 0c and -4.5c on summit. Still snowing.

C

Evening,

Best August snowfall for a quite a few years up there. Good omen ?

C

post-3489-1187639075_thumb.jpg

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted

Evening,

Best August snowfall for a quite a few years up there. Good omen ?

C

Not wanting to be accused of 'ramping' up the winter- But the early development of the polar vortex displaced well to the east of greenland brings a little smirk to my face....

S :lol:

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted

Not wanting to be accused of 'ramping' up the winter- But the early development of the polar vortex displaced well to the east of greenland brings a little smirk to my face....

S :)

Hi Steve,

Go on Steve, ramp it up. I am more than confident for an early start to winter :lol:

C

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ribster Aficionado

ribster

Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
Posted
Evening,

Best August snowfall for a quite a few years up there. Good omen ?

C

Fantastic, that picture puts a smile on my face, sad isn't it! Talking of SAD, there seems to be talk of this on the forum. I believe I suffer in the summer, had just put it down to being a moody kid when I was younger. But I love the cold dark winter months, strange I know - I can't help it!

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted

Hi Steve,

Go on Steve, ramp it up. I am more than confident for an early start to winter :lol:

C

Ive a gd feeling that the likes of Norway etc wont be seeing the +10 departures like last year as we head through sept & oct...

:) S

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted
Fantastic, that picture puts a smile on my face, sad isn't it! Talking of SAD, there seems to be talk of this on the forum. I believe I suffer in the summer, had just put it down to being a moody kid when I was younger. But I love the cold dark winter months, strange I know - I can't help it!

Hi Ribster,

It is a great shot. Enjoy the views of the snow clad mountains and glaciers now, In one months time, twightlight zone sets in.

You can almost feel and touch the white stuff. Wish I was there. Seen some snowfall on the higher peaks today around the village in the Austria.

C

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parmenides3 Newbie

parmenides3

Posted
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
Posted

Sad to report for the snow enthusiasts that the CIS forecast for the rest of August and early September is for normal - slightly above normal temps across the whole region and continued melting until the second half of next month. I checked my favourite webcams, and there isn't much white stuff around yet. The situation in Siberia doesn't look great, either. Perhaphs someone can post one or two of the Antarctic wbecams shots, to keep us going...

:)P

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Not wanting to be accused of 'ramping' up the winter- But the early development of the polar vortex displaced well to the east of greenland brings a little smirk to my face....

S :lol:

Don't worry it'll shift on the first offical day of Winter. :)

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ribster Aficionado

ribster

Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
Posted (edited)
Sad to report for the snow enthusiasts that the CIS forecast for the rest of August and early September is for normal - slightly above normal temps across the whole region and continued melting until the second half of next month. I checked my favourite webcams, and there isn't much white stuff around yet. The situation in Siberia doesn't look great, either. Perhaphs someone can post one or two of the Antarctic wbecams shots, to keep us going...

:)P

Do you have to throw a spoiler in so quickly, still savouring that picture! Not only that, it's a forecast, that snow is there now!

Edited by ribster
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reef Veteran

reef

Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
Posted

Not wanting to be accused of 'ramping' up the winter- But the early development of the polar vortex displaced well to the east of greenland brings a little smirk to my face....

S :lol:

Which is almost exactly where it was this time last year!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060820.gif

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

I'm going to suprise the lot of you....

By saying that i expect the sea ice minimum to be reached no later than the 4th September.

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Lettucing Gutted Community Regular

Lettucing Gutted

Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
Posted
Which is almost exactly where it was this time last year!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060820.gif

Ironically I don't like the sound of that because after that chart last August toppled we had the most subtropical September you could imagine.

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Polar Continental Seasoned

Polar Continental

Posted
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme winter cold,heavy bowing snow,freezing fog.Summer 2012
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet
Posted

Morning everyone, some nice shots from Svalbard this morning.

Zeppelin Station

Possible first signs of fresh sea ice

Paul

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Turnedoutniceagain Seasoned

Turnedoutniceagain

Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
Posted
Morning everyone, some nice shots from Svalbard this morning.

Zeppelin Station

Possible first signs of fresh sea ice

Paul

Thanks Paul, I really enjoy these cam shots. Any idea where on Svalbard they are ? Google Earth doesn't recognise Zeppelin station.

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trevw Newbie

trevw

Posted
  • Location: Winchester
  • Location: Winchester
Posted

am very interested to see the next report from the NSIDC. The graph on Cryosphere Today seems to still be intent on hitting the floor, from the way its going a sub 3 million square miles finish looks likely?

Do we think this is really representitive or could they be having problems with their data? it looks like they've had to add an extra 0.5 below the line on the anomaly graph for the basin and will shortly have to add another! :o

Trev

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

They have added that ,2.2m below the norm, when we are currently only recording 3.2 is incredibly bad.

The norm is nolonger the norm.

Also Antarctic ice is well down on last year, still time for it to recover, but I am not sure it will.

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Polar Continental Seasoned

Polar Continental

Posted
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme winter cold,heavy bowing snow,freezing fog.Summer 2012
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet
Posted
Thanks Paul, I really enjoy these cam shots. Any idea where on Svalbard they are ? Google Earth doesn't recognise Zeppelin station.

Hi TONA,

Carinthinan is possibly the best person to ask, but I guess near the main habited area of Spitsbergen.

Paul

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Mr Sleet Newbie

Mr Sleet

Posted
  • Location: Thame, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Thame, Oxfordshire
Posted
They have added that ,2.2m below the norm, when we are currently only recording 3.2 is incredibly bad.

The norm is nolonger the norm.

Also Antarctic ice is well down on last year, still time for it to recover, but I am not sure it will.

Fractionally down is the Antarctic, but right on the money on an increasing 30 year trend.

post-2141-1187695564_thumb.pngpost-2141-1187695591_thumb.png

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AtlanticFlamethrower Explorer

AtlanticFlamethrower

Posted
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres
Posted
Fractionally down is the Antarctic, but right on the money on an increasing 30 year trend.

post-2141-1187695564_thumb.pngpost-2141-1187695591_thumb.png

Interesting you post this now. Since April the Antarctic has been well above average.

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Turnedoutniceagain Seasoned

Turnedoutniceagain

Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
Posted
Interesting you post this now. Since April the Antarctic has been well above average.

Err..now I'm really confused, should I be planting vines or buying fleeces ?? :o

Hi TONA,

Carinthinan is possibly the best person to ask, but I guess near the main habited area of Spitsbergen.

Paul

Thanks Paul, no joy with GE I'm afraid

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Yes sorry fractionally down, but unless it shoots up it will be quite a bit down on last year.

That graph seems to show a 0.7% increase each decade + or - 0.8. Which isn't really statisically significant surely.?

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
Fractionally down is the Antarctic, but right on the money on an increasing 30 year trend.

post-2141-1187695564_thumb.pngpost-2141-1187695591_thumb.png

Yep, makes me laugh the quotes of 'well down' on last year. The mean is still above and the arctic outbreaks to mid latitude levels in the southern Hemisphere has been prominant. Looks healthy enough down there

BFTP

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