Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles and the ECPC (NOAA)

[Damien]

Now, as you know I have given up on a true cold winter ever again being experienced in this country, and am currently anticipating my move to the colder climes of our near continent. But with a cool summer currently afflicting the country, I thought it best to re-examine the case for a cold winter in the British Isles in 2007/08.

First off, Bill Giles. It was reported in the middle of last winter that Bill Giles, one of the British Isles' most respected forecasters, was anticipating a year that would resemble a pattern like this/of this nature:

-A generally uninspiring winter 2006/07 with a couple of closing cold snaps - one of which occurred on time from memory, the other one I *think* was/may have been a miss,

-A cooler and wet summer - cooler and wetter than in recent times, and shock to the system of the British Isles given recent "global warming" summers such as 2003 and 2006.

I can't remember/don't know if he ever said anything for autumn. Well, I dismissed these predictions as hogwash, even though it was the great Bill Giles; my new "pessimistic" nature only anticipating my future move to Europe and not anymore "phantom" British winters like 2006/07 and the cringeworthy 2005/06. Well, here we are in mid-late summer 2007 - the cooler weather/summer having come off as predicted by Bill Giles (and I think someone else contributed to the forecast), so my interest in the prediction was peaked. But it was another forecast that really caught my 2imagination and brought this back to my attention.

First of all, what did Bill Giles say for winter 2007/08? He saw, in January 2007, winter 2007/08 as being cold, and coming as a real shock to the system given recent British "greenhouse" winters. This was reported on a well known weather forum by a journalist source close to Mr. Giles and generally "in the know". But now, having seen ECPC's latest output, I thought it time to seriously consider these claims once again.

I sat observing and reading ECPC's longer range output, which as you know I follow throughout the course of the year - albeit less in the winter and at the moment with my current move. But I noticed something... that was both "interesting" and "contrasting".

The ECPC - which is of course an arm of the NOAA which has its own current and uninspiring "chopping and changing" winter forecast, as we all know - longer range had thoughts that were certainly very consistent with those of Britain's Mr. Giles. So, I sat there, and checked the longer range "dynamic":

Uninspiring again I know, but then I decided to sit and check the perhaps more accurate new "shorter range", month-by-month model. I looked and opened the pages one by one, to see a correctly forecast cooler and wetter summer:

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/ncepglb/mon...070701A_Mo1.png

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/ncepglb/mon...070701A_Mo2.png

warming up again in the autumn - still no surprise to me as again I am used to this and I am soon moving:

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/ncepglb/mon...070701A_Mo3.png

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/ncepglb/mon...070701A_Mo4.png

(a *slightly* cooler October though (once again!) from the west indicating a north-westerly dominated wild and wet month (or at least potentially)). And then came this monster - and I was blown off my chair!:

and then I remembered Bill Giles forecast. And the cool summer. And how correct this was. And put two and two together to realise and think that *maybe*, just *maybe*... there is something more to this than meets the eye.

Bill Giles and the ECPC have both forecasted poor summers. The Met Office forecasted an uncertain but still likely above average one, IMMSMC. And now both the former are forecasting at least a cold start of winter. Or maybe I'm just clutching at straws for one final time as we do every year.

Anyhow, if I am wrong about Mr. Giles or the Experimental Climate Prediction Center, then either of these can feel free to prompt and correct me on my observations. Thank you.

[kippure]

I,d love to know the reasons behind novembers chart? If Mr Giles is right, this could be a quite an amazing winter.

[Damien]

Oops, I didn't see this before:

Those links just came alive now. They show... well, make up your mind.

It would be a shock if that came off. Europe is one of the coldest places in the world on that November chart.

[Stu_London]

That #November chart is a joke surely

There is nowhere on earth warmer than normal - Have the nurses let you have the crayons again Damien?

[Damien]

That #November chart is a joke surely

There is nowhere on earth warmer than normal - Have the nurses let you have the crayons again Damien?

Wasn't it Picasso last time?

To be fair those charts are quite new. The ECPC week-by-week long ranger has never had much success in the past, but there has been some restructuring at the site lately. The track record for this thus far seems very good, and I need not comment on Mr. Giles (is he still with Metcheck?).

[Stu_London]

Wasn't it Picasso last time?

To be fair those charts are quite new. The ECPC week-by-week long ranger has never had much success in the past, but there has been some restructuring at the site lately. The track record for this thus far seems very good, and I need not comment on Mr. Giles (is he still with Metcheck?).

As it happens if the current cool trend was to last into September, I would start to believe that there were factors that could lead us to a below average winter - I would be calling cold and wet though with a southerly tracking jet.

[Bobby]

It's interesting. On another thread TEITS pointed out that some of our coldest winters followed cool summers. Things do seem to be pointing the right direction for a cooler winter than we have been used to of late, but at this distance things are far from certain. Educated guesswork really. But interesting nonetheless.

I suppose the only way to find out if this winter will be cold is to just wait for it. Some positive signs though definitely.

[Damien]

It's interesting. On another thread TEITS pointed out that some of our coldest winters followed cool summers. Things do seem to be pointing the right direction for a cooler winter than we have been used to of late, but at this distance things are far from certain. Educated guesswork really. But interesting nonetheless.

I suppose the only way to find out if this winter will be cold is to just wait for it. Some positive signs though definitely.

I refute that. Mid-1990s cold winters often followed hot, memorable, BritPop( ) summers. Late 1990s winters, when our charts will filled with Steps and S Club 7-type stuff, summers were often also wet damp, and dull. As were our winters back then. Personally I think late 1990s-type patterns are more relevant to our winters then 1980s patterns - though in the 2000s it really works both ways: and it doesn't take much to get a mild winter.

[Gavin P]

2007/2008 will be a Hale Winter. Philip Eden also pointed out a few years back, how 2007/2008 had a higher probability of being cold, than most winters in the christmas pudding. Infact, in his 1st January 2000 column I believe he joked it could be the last severe winter of the third millennium?

Anyway, being a Hale Winter, this is probably where Bill Giles got his idea's from? As for the November chart, it certainly looks good, but just remember the saying;

Ice to bear a duck, there will be nothing left but slush and muck....

Very wet and reasonably mild would do me for November.

Edited August 8, 2007 by Gavin P

[eddie]

2007/2008 will be a Hale Winter. Philip Eden also pointed out a few years back, how 2007/2008 had a higher probability of being cold, than most winters in the christmas pudding. Infact, in his 1st January 2000 column I believe he joked it could be the last severe winter of the third millennium?

Anyway, being a Hale Winter, this is probably where Bill Giles got his idea's from? As for the November chart, it certainly looks good, but just remember the saying;

Ice to bear a duck, there will be nothing left but slush and muck....

Very wet and reasonably mild would do me for November.

Forgive my ignorance but what is a 'Hale Winter'? Google not being helpful today.

[Damien]

Metcheck's Martin Chuter (solar expert) also said that 2007/08 stood the highest chance of being the coldest this decade - but that was in 2002.

By the way the cold in November 1993 didn't hurt our February 1994 (certainly not where I lived).

[Gavin P]

The "Hale Cycle" is a 22/23 year solar cycle that appears to coincide with cold or even severe winters in the UK.

So, lets start from 1895;

1895

1917

1940

1963

1985

2008?????

Obviously you shouldn't read too much into this, but just keep an eye out over the next few months for what happens.

[SMU]

Hey Damien-

I wondered how long it would be before you presented us with one of your mamouth ECPC Long range colourful messages-

As exciting as it looks the November chart has as much chance of occuring as Maggie Thatcher does being re-elected as prime Minister-

With such a cold anomaly- ie -10c Versus the norm firstly that would be unprecidented in recent times, but there would also have to be a large +ve 10c anomaly to offset the anomalous cold-

Dec & Jan are believable in a manner like ' Yes it can happen'- but still contradict anyone who has observed NW Europes Winter Synoptic Patterns for the last 10 Years-

I will keep the Sledge & ramp under wraps just for now!!!!

S

[Gavin P]

I should also point out that according to Terry Scholey before a cold Hale winter, you often find a "warning" takes place, where-by you can get some individually cold and wet months, which act as a warning of whats coming. I've never looked into this to see how true it is, though.

[Nick F]

And so the long haul of speculation of the coming winter begins!

Wouldn't read too much into those long range colourful temp anomaly charts right now.

[Damien]

Hey Damien-

I wondered how long it would be before you presented us with one of your mamouth ECPC Long range colourful messages-

I wouldn't have done it this year if it wasn't for, as I said in the reply to Stu_London:

1. They were showing such (IMHO) remarkable consistency with what Bill Giles had said,

2. They had been poor,

3. They had not improved (which they have - they seem to have been "rebooted" over this summer).

4. I didn't need to make a post about the Bill Giles thing anyway.

As exciting as it looks the November chart has as much chance of occuring as Maggie Thatcher does being re-elected as prime Minister-

I can't decide if this is good or bad...

probably bad.

... And your thoughts on Bill Giles? That's a pretty bold statement to make back in January. Maybe not now his summer forecast has come off good.

@ Gavin. That's fascinating.

[NorthantsSnow]

Fascinating thread. The charts in the original post are nice to look at, if nothing else. Thanks for all the info on hale winters Gavin - but surely the theory exposes why Bill Giles and the like have been hinting that 07/08 could be colder than recent winters. Why else would he have made such an ambitious prediction back in January 2007? It's all rather encouraging though, as is the cooling of SSTs.

Just out of interest, has anyone been keeping an eye on the CFS recently? And if so, what is it showing for November?

[Gavin P]

Theres a little bit of information about the Hale Cycle contained in this paprer that Terry Scholey wrote a couple of years ago;

http://www.binghamheritage.org.uk/history/...ams_weather.htm

For anybody interested.

[Damien]

Just out of interest, has anyone been keeping an eye on the CFS recently? And if so, what is it showing for November?

It can't decide between blue and yellow.

And yes, Bill Giles did also forecast this summer to be below average. We need someone to find the rest of the forecast though.

[Thunder Snow]

How is winter shaping up on those nw long-range charts.

[summer blizzard]

To me, the current indications are for a cold and wet Autumn, and a average but wet winter.

Edited August 8, 2007 by summer blizzard

[Damien]

How is winter shaping up on those nw long-range charts.

Ahhh... those little charmers.

They're all the "pretty colours", not the new ECPC charts... but we'll see.

[PersianPaladin]

Too early to tell....we will need to wait until late September to get an indication of what the first couple of months of winter may bring in terms of general synoptic patterns. Lets wait until SST's in the North Atlantic and North Sea reach their zenith.

[kold weather]

Its interesting though obviously you can't read into too much. saying that there are some good factors for a cooler then normal winter tohugh obviously the background warmth present across the N.Hemisphere may limit the cold becoming too extreme there is no reason why we can't a below average winter like 05-06, indeed right now the teleconnectons appear favorable for a winter like that if not slightly colder however we are still quite a way from winter and it really wouldn't be that surprising if it turned out mild to be honest!

By the way one thing that is worth noting, it seems like the best chance for a cold spell here is now Feb/March and it seems like its shifted to later in the year probably becuase the cold pools are taking longer to establish I'd guess but whatever it is who knows. Even last winter sort of followed this trend though any cold/snow was useless bar the heavy stuff towards the start.

[Cheviot]

The observed cycles do point to a colder winter. This is based on:

1. Hale's sun spot polarity law - determines solar activity based on magentic cycles within the sun.

2. Kepler's 3 laws of plantary motion - the earth's orbit is eliptical around the sun, so there are periods in our winter that coincide with attaining the greatest distance frim the sun.

3. Chandler's wobble - small 'wobbles' in the earth's rotation that are thought to impact weather events such as El Nino

4. Angle of earth's axis orientation to the sun - determines seasonally whether Northern or Southern hemisphere's face the sun.

5. volcanic activity/stratospheric pollution

The running combination of these processes has coincided like a giant mechanical clock to create periodic climate events in the past and this, like a clock, has a certain inevitability to it. Complicating this is the observed climate warming in the past 50 years which may 'soften' the cycle, but don't expect it not to influence our weather one way or the other.

The mid-40s and early 60's were tremendously cold here in the UK: the '62-'63 event was responsible for destroying many small animals (the number of hedge row birds plummetted after these events). My father recalled how on the Welsh farm he grew up on that during the '63 event all many small animals (predators and prey) would come to cower around the farmhouse where the walls protected the animals from the wind and where food from the kitchen could be thown out. Foxes and birds, side-by-side humbled from their normal behavoiurs by the severity of the cold. Then there was the great melt which flooded swathes of the countryside after the snow accumulation.

The mid-80's didn't deliver (thankfully) the same degree of cold but did provide a few snowy events. 2007/8 points to something cold happening, but it is the degree which is open to debate.