METO UK Further Outlook

[snowmadchrisuk]

Latest Meto still going for Cold on the second week :

Although there is still some uncertainty, the unsettled pattern of rain or showers, possibly of sleet or snow, is likely to continue throughout the week and into the second weekend. Temperatures likely to start around normal, but probably becoming rather cold or cold, especially in the east.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

UK Outlook for Saturday 6 Feb 2010 to Monday 15 Feb 2010:

A spell of wet and windy weather affects the UK during the first weekend with south or southeasterly winds probably reaching gale force in the north and west. Most places will have rain for a time and this is most likely to be heaviest in the north and west. There is also a chance of sleet or snow in the northeast at first. It is likely to become drier by the end of the weekend, although rain or showers will continue in places. Although there is still some uncertainty, the unsettled pattern of rain or showers, possibly of sleet or snow, is likely to continue throughout the week and into the second weekend. Temperatures likely to start around normal, but probably becoming rather cold or cold, especially in the east.

Updated: 1212 on Mon 1 Feb 2010

Even the MetO aint that sure what is going to happen in the extended output.

Interesting update they look to be going with their own model and its not as good as Jay wynes update.

Its a backtrack from yesterdays outlook but its still ok,the only reservation i have with that update is that

the cold always seems further away in the period.Could do with something in the next 10 days or so the effects of the sun and the longer days as we get past mid Feb usually means we need the cold uppers or lying

snow (if there is any)can melt quite quickly in the daytime.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 7 Feb 2010 to Tuesday 16 Feb 2010:

Initially there is likely to be an area of locally heavy rain and hill snow across western areas and this is expected to edge slowly and erratically eastwards during the first part of the new week, the rain and snow perhaps fizzling out before it reaches the east and southeast. From the early part of the first week onwards there is a large degree of uncertainty in the forecast but it looks likely that the general trend will be for unsettled, rather cold conditions. We can expect mostly large amounts of cloud and occasional rain, turning to sleet and snow at times, with the sleet and snow risk probably highest in northern, eastern and central areas. The temperature is likely to be either cold or rather cold.

Updated: 1204 on Tue 2 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 8 Feb 2010 to Wednesday 17 Feb 2010:

Mainly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, heavy at times with hill snow in the north at first. Brighter conditions with showers, some heavy, in the south and west, then following. The rest of the week remains unsettled with bands of rain spreading in from the southwest and turning to sleet and snow at times across northern, eastern and central parts. Some showers and brighter spells, between these bands of rain, temperatures close to or a little below average in many areas. For the rest of the period there is a large degree of uncertainty in the forecast, but it looks likely that unsettled, rather cold conditions will continue, with rain, sleet and snow at times, temperatures below average with overnight frost and ice.

Updated: 1203 on Wed 3 Feb 2010

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/40389-meto-uk-further-outlook/page__st__986

[Snowplough33]

Perhaps a clue that UKMO arent buying it. Looks like they still with SW influence. Cold, yes possible, but the easterly of GSF

UK Outlook for Monday 8 Feb 2010 to Wednesday 17 Feb 2010:

Mainly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, heavy at times with hill snow in the north at first. Brighter conditions with showers, some heavy, in the south and west, then following. The rest of the week remains unsettled with bands of rain spreading in from the southwest and turning to sleet and snow at times across northern, eastern and central parts. Some showers and brighter spells, between these bands of rain, temperatures close to or a little below average in many areas. For the rest of the period there is a large degree of uncertainty in the forecast, but it looks likely that unsettled, rather cold conditions will continue, with rain, sleet and snow at times, temperatures below average with overnight frost and ice.

Updated: 1203 on Wed 3 Feb 2010

Printable view days 1 to 15

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 9 Feb 2010 to Thursday 18 Feb 2010:

Rather cold with a mixture of bright spells and scattered sleet and snow showers in the north and east. Strong winds are also expected around exposed eastern coasts. The driest and brightest weather is expected in the northwest for much of the period. Rain, sleet and snow may spread into the south during Thursday, clearing southwards by the weekend (12th-13th). Overnight, frost is likely in many places, with locally severe frost inland. Remaining cold for the rest of the period with snow showers, particularly in eastern and some central areas, with perhaps some significant accumulations of snow in places. There is also a risk of further bands of rain, sleet and snow spreading into the south, particularly later in the period.

Updated: 1155 on Thu 4 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[johnholmes]

It should make the cold lovers happy and those hoping for an early start to spring less so!

[karyo]

It should make the cold lovers happy and those hoping for an early start to spring less so!

Indeed, that's a solid cold outlook!

Karyo :-)

[Lewis]

An excellent update which is a good boost confidence in this mornings modelling and rules out that no 2 possibility.

We do still need another round of model suites to be properly sure - but, touch wood, things will stay steady now and by the weekend people can start looking at details.

Have a good afternoon all

Im on the metoffice website and their forecasts and i don't see an update, i still see's yesterdays.

can you help me please by cutting and pasting the info.

thanks in advance

[Shutterbug Netty]

Im on the metoffice website and their forecasts and i don't see an update, i still see's yesterdays.

can you help me please by cutting and pasting the info.

thanks in advance

Here you go......

UK Outlook for Tuesday 9 Feb 2010 to Thursday 18 Feb 2010:

Rather cold with a mixture of bright spells and scattered sleet and snow showers in the north and east. Strong winds are also expected around exposed eastern coasts. The driest and brightest weather is expected in the northwest for much of the period. Rain, sleet and snow may spread into the south during Thursday, clearing southwards by the weekend (12th-13th). Overnight, frost is likely in many places, with locally severe frost inland. Remaining cold for the rest of the period with snow showers, particularly in eastern and some central areas, with perhaps some significant accumulations of snow in places. There is also a risk of further bands of rain, sleet and snow spreading into the south, particularly later in the period.

Updated: 1155 on Thu 4 Feb 2010

[snowmadchrisuk]

Im on the metoffice website and their forecasts and i don't see an update, i still see's yesterdays.

can you help me please by cutting and pasting the info.

thanks in advance

If that happens just press f5 and click on it again . It's your cashe remembering web pages.

[MAF]

If that happens just press f5 and click on it again . It's your cashe remembering web pages.

Ctrl+F5 will clear the cache :lol:

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Feb 2010 to Friday 19 Feb 2010:

Rather cold with a mixture of bright spells and scattered sleet and snow showers in the north and east. Strong winds are also expected around some exposed eastern and southern coasts. The driest and brightest weather is expected in the northwest for much of the period. Rain, sleet and snow may spread into some parts of the southwest for a time during Wednesday and Thursday, and again early in the following week. Overnight, frost is likely in many places, with locally severe frost inland. Remaining cold for the rest of the period with some snow or snow showers at times, particularly in eastern and some central areas. There is also a risk of further bands of rain, sleet and snow spreading into the south, particularly later in the period.

Updated: 1217 on Fri 5 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 11 Feb 2010 to Saturday 20 Feb 2010:

Rather cold or cold on Thursday and Friday with a mixture of bright spells and scattered sleet and snow showers, mainly in the north and east. Strong winds are also expected around some exposed eastern and southern coasts at times. The driest and brightest weather is expected in the northwest for much of the period. Overnight, frost is likely in most places, with locally severe frost likely inland. Remaining cold for the rest of the period with some snow or snow showers at times, particularly in eastern and some central areas, which may give some accumulations in places. There is also a risk of further bands of rain, sleet and snow spreading into the south, particularly later in the period.

Updated: 1201 on Sat 6 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 12 Feb 2010 to Sunday 21 Feb 2010:

Friday will be cold with brisk northeasterly winds and wintry showers, these more persistent across eastern areas with the risk of significant snow accumulations, mainly in the southeast and East Anglia, possibly central and southern areas as well. Some snow showers likely across Scotland. A frost will form widely, locally sharp in the west and northwest. Saturday will continue cold with further wintry showers, mainly in the southeast, and frosty. The period from Sunday to Tuesday is expected to continue cold with brisk easterly winds. The northwest should be mainly dry, with further wintry showers expected in the southeast. Later in the week there is a risk of some rain, sleet or snow spreading from the south with some significant snowfall possible for a time, but low confidence in detail.

Updated: 1147 on Sun 7 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[shuggee]

I think the point about the METO further outlook days up to two weeks is that they often completely change from one day to the next as and when the models change, or come to a different consensus where there has been disagreement over the possibilities. So they are best treatred as a watching guide on that basis without assumptions that what is suggested by them is actually going to happen.

Would be interested to hear if your view has changed after this week's performance. Mine has. The Meto Further Outlook has consistently said the cold would come from the east when none of the models were showing it. And to be honest that's the first time I can remember that this written summary has been so spectacularly right against all the numeric models on the planet! :lol:

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Would be interested to hear if your view has changed after this week's performance. Mine has. The Meto Further Outlook has consistently said the cold would come from the east when none of the models were showing it. And to be honest that's the first time I can remember that this written summary has been so spectacularly right against all the numeric models on the planet!

Yes, I do agree with you about this.

Despite the wide fluctuations within the computer models over the last week they have rightly stuck to the theme as you say .

I have criricsed the METO a lot over their long terms forecasting but I do think that their short term predictions and pinpointing of detail as when features on the modeliing become apparent are excellent and they can be over harshly criticised at times for these. By short term I mean up to 3/4 days and the like. Another valuable lesson about not believing anything beyond t..... *insert number*

Edited February 7, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[johnholmes]

the thread T is about 6-15 day periods NOT 3-4 days.

They have consistently over 7-10 days if not longer, I've not looked back, predicted that this week would be cold?

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

the thread T is about 6-15 day periods NOT 3-4 days.

They have consistently over 7-10 days if not longer, I've not looked back, predicted that this week would be cold?

John, if you read my post that is pretty much what I have already said

I know the thread is about 6-15 days. The discussion in the last couple of posts was about how the 6 -15 day outlook can chop and change in accordance with the models and I was agreeing in my replied post to Shuggee that in the last week that has not been the case and the METO have (rightly) stuck to the cold theme in each outlook despite the extreme model volatility.

I then went on to make a linked (if slightly separate point) stating that I think the METO's short term forecasting is very good. That point was not, if you read my post, in reference to the 6 to 15 days but to do with short term detailed forecasting over a few days.

Kind Regards

Tamara

Edit: to tag onto the last weeks 6/15 day forecasts - the METO had confidence, unusually, in the 10 to 15 day guidance in terms of suggestions of colder weather coming in from the east. The uncertainty related to the shorter term wrt how far east shortwave activity off the main low pressure system in the central/western atlantic would get. As we know, the models have overcooked that energy with suggestions at one time that south westerlies might even cross the merdian on some modelling. I amongst others kept questioning that at the time anyway in the model thread.

Good back up then to illustrate an example where for once this update has been especially consistent and accurate against some conflicting face value model output..

Edited February 7, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 13 Feb 2010 to Monday 22 Feb 2010:

Saturday and Sunday will be cold generally, with brisk northeasterly winds, and with wintry showers across some eastern areas, and still with the risk of significant snow accumulations in the far southeast. Overnight frost will be widespread, and locally severe. In the period Monday to Wednesday (15th to 17th) northern parts of the U.K. are likely to become more unsettled, with rain or sleet turning to snow over many inland parts, especially higher ground. Southern areas may also have some snow for a time before mostly turning to rain. Beyond this an unsettled but mostly cold type of weather looks most likely, with a continuing risk of sleet or snow, except perhaps in the southwest where somewhat milder conditions should prevail.

Updated: 1156 on Mon 8 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

Sunday will be cold generally, with wintry showers across some southeastern areas. Overnight frost will be widespread, and locally severe. Also during Sunday and Monday more unsettled conditions are likely to spread down into northern parts of the U.K., with rain or snow, the snow mainly on hills. In the period Tuesday to Thursday (16th to 18th) much of the U.K. is likely to be unsettled and rather cold, with some rain or sleet at times and with hill snow, perhaps also with some snow on low ground in the north. Beyond this an unsettled and mostly cold type of weather looks likely to continue, so still a risk of some sleet or snow, especially on higher ground.

Updated: 1155 on Tue 9 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Don]

Not looking too inspiring for the south. What a change from just two days ago! I hope things change back for the better.

[cooling climate]

Not looking too inspiring for the south. What a change from just two days ago! I hope things change back for the better.

I wouldn't take any notice if I were you, follow the models they will give you a better idea.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 15 Feb 2010 to Wednesday 24 Feb 2010:

Initially on Monday (15th) outbreaks of rain, sleet and hill snow in the north look likely to spread southwards, reaching all but the far south by the end of the day. Thereafter it currently looks likely that conditions across the United Kingdom will be cold and unsettled with further outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow, some of which are likely to be heavy. As usual the hillier areas are most likely to experience the largest amounts of snow, although there is also a fair chance that many lower lying areas will have some fresh accumulations at times. During the second week there is a chance that the main snow risk area will move towards the northern parts of the country. It will be windy at times, especially in the north.

Updated: 1256 on Wed 10 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 16 Feb 2010 to Thursday 25 Feb 2010:

Cloud and outbreaks of rain, sleet and hill snow in the north look likely to spread southeastwards, reaching all but the far southeast by the end Tuesday. Thereafter it looks likely that conditions across the United Kingdom will be cold, with overnight frost and ice, and unsettled with further outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow, some of which are likely to be heavy. As usual the hillier areas are most likely to experience the largest amounts of snow, although there is also a fair chance that many lower lying areas will have some fresh accumulations at times. Later in the period there is a chance that the main snow risk area may move towards the northern parts of the country. It will be windy at times in exposed places.

Updated: 1150 on Thu 11 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html