METO UK Further Outlook

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 17 Feb 2010 to Friday 26 Feb 2010:

There is the risk of occasional snow across central and eastern areas of the UK, although this risk spreading northwards through the day with southern areas becoming drier and brighter. Scattered rain showers will spread to the west and southwest later. Sometimes brisk southerly or southeasterly winds with temperatures generally below normal with overnight frost. On Thursday southern areas will see some showers, with risk of sleet and snow across northern areas. Through Friday and the weekend there is a continued risk of wintry showers in the east and north, although a little milder in the southwest with rain showers likely together with some sunny spells. The next week looks like remaining unsettled and still on the cool side.

Updated: 1141 on Fri 12 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 18 Feb 2010 to Saturday 27 Feb 2010:

Thursday and Friday will have occasional rain at low levels, but snow on high ground. The snow may penetrate to lower levels at times, especially in the north, but rain more likely to the south. Some brighter spells are also likely, particularly on Friday. Northern and eastern parts could become windy with a risk of gales. Temperatures should be mainly rather cold with a risk of overnight frost and ice. The weekend and the following week is expected to continue much the same, with further unsettled and rather cold weather. Some heavier and more persistent wet weather could spread up from the south later in the week. This should fall as rain in the south, but there is a continuing risk of snow further north.

Updated: 1152 on Sat 13 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 19 Feb 2010 to Sunday 28 Feb 2010:

Friday and the weekend aqre likely to be cold with overnight frost and patchy fog. There should be some sunny spells, but occasional showers are also likely, especially in the north and east. The showers could turn wintry at times, particularly in the north and over high ground. The rest of the period will continue generally cold with overnight frost and patchy fog. Further showers are likely, which could turn wintry in the north and over high ground. Some more prolonged bands of rain with strong winds will probably spread northwards across the country at times, which could turn to sleet or snow over Central and Northern parts of the country. Temperatures will be mainly cold, but are likely to become near average at times in the south.

Updated: 1149 on Sun 14 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 20 Feb 2010 to Monday 1 Mar 2010:

The weekend is likely to be cold with overnight frost and patchy fog. There should be some sunny spells, but occasional showers are also likely, especially in the north and east. The showers could will wintry at times, particularly in the north and over high ground. The rest of the period continues generally cold with overnight frost and patchy fog. Further showers are likely, which could turn wintry in the north and over high ground. Persistent rain with strong winds will probably spread northwards across the country at times, and could turn to sleet or snow over Central and Northern parts, and possibly further south at times. Temperatures will be mainly cold, but are likely to become near average at times in the south.

Updated: 1141 on Mon 15 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 21 Feb 2010 to Tuesday 2 Mar 2010:

Unsettled conditions are likely on Sunday, with showers or longer periods of rain, possibly falling as snow on hills and perhaps to lower levels in the north. There is also a chance of frost and ice forming overnight in any clear spells. The unsettled weather is likely to continue throughout the final week of February and into the first few days of March. Further showers are likely, which could turn wintry in the north and over high ground. Persistent rain with strong winds will probably spread northwards across the country at times, and could turn to sleet or snow over Central and Northern parts, and possibly further south at times. Temperatures will be mainly cold in the north, but are likely to be near average in the south at times.

Updated: 1126 on Tue 16 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 22 Feb 2010 to Wednesday 3 Mar 2010:

An area of rain, probably falling as snow on high ground, and perhaps to lower levels for a time, is expected to affect southern and eastern parts of the U.K. for a time Monday, followed by clearer skies and a frost in many parts Monday night. Thereafter, unsettled weather is likely to continue throughout the last week of February and into the first part of March. Further showers or longer outbreaks of rain or sleet are likely, which could turn to snow at times in the north, and over high ground. Some brighter, clearer spells will also occur, with some overnight frost likely. Although on the cold side of average for much of the period, temperatures are likely to rise to near the average in the south at times.

Updated: 1200 on Wed 17 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Terminal Moraine]

I wish in these forecasts that the Met' would give some indication of where they mean by north and south.

North could mean anywhere from north of the Great Glen, Scotland in its entirity, or north of a line from north Wales to the Wash.

Similary south could mean south of the M4, south of Birmingham or south of Lancashire and South Yorkshire.

[johnholmes]

ah, the privelege of being a Met O forecaster able to 'play' with the geographical niceties such as you describe!

[keithlucky]

ah, the privelege of being a Met O forecaster able to 'play' with the geographical niceties such as you describe!

Please explain jh do different parts of the met use different forecasters?for example thursdays forecaste snow reaching south wales 8am on bbc news 24, on met office just updated snow by dusk 5pm , a huge difference on 2 forecastes issued the same time.

[johnholmes]

I'm not sure of the pattern now days but I assume they will work a roster, be they on Regional, National, 24 hours or whatever, with some linkage and overlap between the various areas I've mentioned?

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Feb 2010 to Thursday 4 Mar 2010:

Wintry showers, and perhaps some longer outbreaks of sleet or snow, are likely to affect many northern parts of the U.K. on Tuesday. Showers are also likely in the south, these of rain, although some could be heavy or prolonged in places. Thereafter, unsettled weather is likely to continue throughout the rest of February and into the first part of March. Further showers or longer outbreaks of rain or sleet are likely, which could turn to snow at times in northern and perhaps central parts of the U.K., especially over higher ground. Some brighter, clearer spells will also occur, with overnight frost likely. Although on the cold side of average for some areas, temperatures are likely to rise to near average at times, especially in the south.

Updated: 1157 on Thu 18 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Don]

A pretty uninspiring outlook for southern areas as expected. Eyes on Midlands northwards ATM.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Feb 2010 to Friday 5 Mar 2010:

Unsettled with bright or clear spells at first, giving way to cloudier conditions from Thursday (25th) as heavy rain or sleet spreads into the south. Wintry showers, or some longer outbreaks of sleet or snow, are likely to affect many northern parts of the U.K. too. Thereafter, unsettled and at times windy weather is likely to continue with further showers or longer outbreaks of rain or sleet likely. These could turn to snow at times, mostly in northern and perhaps central parts of the U.K., but especially over higher ground. Some brighter, clearer spells should also occur, with overnight frost and ice likely. Although on the cold side of average for many areas, temperatures may rise to near average towards the end of the period, particularly in the south.

Updated: 1159 on Fri 19 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Hammer]

Perhaps it's me, but I always find the Met O's updates a bit out-of-date, though? The change has, after all, only happened very suddenly - I was expecting colder weather and a lot of snow until the shocking change in output about 30 mins ago.

Meto have refreshed their warning for Monday a little over an hour ago and much of the same regions are still in advisory.

I think it is wise to consider the ensembles, but it should be balanced with what the professionals consideration is also of a likely outcome.

For me, I am still thinking the Midlands northwards are looking likely to recieve a good amount of snowfall over the coming days.

[Nick L]

Shocked to find the updated Met O forecast still refers to there being snow over the weekend and Monday for the south east/east anglia. Just shows how out-of-date Met O's forecasts are to me.

Why? Because they refuse to believe one run against many?

[TEITS]

Shocked to find the updated Met O forecast still refers to there being snow over the weekend and Monday for the south east/east anglia. Just shows how out-of-date Met O's forecasts are to me.

I wonder if that was because their warning was issued just before the change in output occurred? Either way, I guess things can change more favourably just as quickly - especially nearer the event.

Lets be fair though you can't expect the Met O to keep adjusting their forecasts based on the GFS. If they did this their forecasts would change 4x a day. They would lose all credibility if they did this.

The Met O will look at the UKMO/ECM/ECM ensembles and then release the fax charts and base their forecast accordingly. Last nights +96 fax chart was unusual because they based this on the ECM rather than the UKMO. In my experience the +96 fax chart is based on the UKMO 90% of the time.

Lets wait until the 12Zs before making any assumptions of the Met O forecast. Even the NAE is showing stark changes between runs let alone the UKMO/ECM!

Edited February 19, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Matt12]

Why? Because they refuse to believe one run against many?

No, it's just that it now looks increasingly unlikely that most of Southern England/the Midlands will see temperatures conducive to snowfall IMO. I'm not saying that the MET O forecast was wrong when it was made (i.e. probably a few hours ago), just that conditions/things have changed since then. The temps look the wrong side of marginal IMO.

Lets be fair though you can't expect the Met O to keep adjusting their forecasts based on the GFS. If they did this their forecasts would change 4x a day. They would lose all credibility if they did this.

The Met O will look at the UKMO/ECM/ECM ensembles and then release the fax charts and base their forecast accordingly. Last nights +96 fax chart was unusual because they based this on the ECM rather than the UKMO. In my experience the +96 fax chart is based on the UKMO 90% of the time.

Lets wait until the 12Zs before making any assumptions of the Met O forecast. Even the NAE is showing stark changes between runs let alone the UKMO/ECM!

True. I just hope (and it's still more than possible) that things change in the next 24/48 hours. I guess our main hope centres on the variability/unpredictability of the models from one output to the next, in recent days.

[karyo]

Yes based on the ensembles its only the far N of England/Scotland that remains cold. However according to the latest Met O update this disagrees with the GFS as they refer to snow for Central parts which of course means the Midlands.

The update seems like a copy and paste job from previous days. It still says however, that temperatures will be recovering in the further outlook, especially in the south. So, this indicates that the lows will be tracking further north, just not as soon as the gfs suggests.

Karyo

[Weather-history]

Yes based on the ensembles its only the far N of England/Scotland that remains cold. However according to the latest Met O update this disagrees with the GFS as they refer to snow for Central parts which of course means the Midlands.

I point out that the Midlands in terms of the UK is not the central part of the UK though and the Met Office refers to the central parts of the UK which is infact strictly speaking northern England. The Midlands would be classified as the southern parts of the UK if you were to split the UK into northern, central and southern components.

Edited February 19, 2010 by Mr_Data

[snowhope]

I point out that the Midlands in terms of the UK is not the central part of the UK though and the Met Office refers to the central parts of the UK which is infact strictly speaking northern England. The Midlands would be classified as the southern parts of the UK if you were to split the UK into northern, central and southern components.

A point I have tried to make more than once Mr D. The midlands is a pretty big area as well and you really cannot pigeon hole it when applying conditions. Yesterday snow is a perfect example of this.

[cyclonic happiness]

I point out that the Midlands in terms of the UK is not the central part of the UK though and the Met Office refers to the central parts of the UK which is infact strictly speaking northern England. The Midlands would be classified as the southern parts of the UK if you were to split the UK into northern, central and southern components.

But if that were so, wouldn't they have said "northern england and southern scotland" for central parts?

It's very confusing for us here as we are not far from the centre of england in the middle midlands whilst watching the weather on central news?

Perhaps John H could clear this us once and for all? :lol:

[Weather-history]

But if that were so, wouldn't they have said "northern england and southern scotland" for central parts?

It's very confusing for us here as we are not far from the centre of england in the middle midlands whilst watching the weather on central news?

Perhaps John H could clear this us once and for all? :huh:

Maybe something to discuss in the Met Office outlook thread rather than this one but when you look a map of the UK, it is clear that the Midlands is not the central part of the UK but I think the Met office could be a little bit more specific say from north Wales to Wash northwards etc.

[ANYWEATHER]

Central parts of the Uk are anything North of Cheshire across to Lincolnshire up to the Scottish border so ie Northern England. Central parts of England is of course the Midlands anything North of south Gloucestershire across to Bedfordshire then North up to Cheshire well thats IMHO!!

[cyclonic happiness]

Central parts of the Uk are anything North of Cheshire across to Lincolnshire up to the Scottish border so ie Northern England. Central parts of England is of course the Midlands anything North of south Gloucestershire across to Bedfordshire then North up to Cheshire well thats IMHO!!

But the one thing I've noticed is that on some forecasts they just say "there could be wintery showers in central parts" and omit the words "of Britain" that's what annoys me talk about vague :huh:

[johnholmes]

But if that were so, wouldn't they have said "northern england and southern scotland" for central parts?

It's very confusing for us here as we are not far from the centre of england in the middle midlands whilst watching the weather on central news?

Perhaps John H could clear this us once and for all?

sorry not able to

we have to remember that they probably have a number of words limit-no idea if that is the case-maybe a question to ask Ian Fergusson who may either know or be able to find out.

If that is the case then you use 2 words in place of 5!

Somewhere in the Met O website or if you ask in an e mail I'm sure you will find their definitions of areas. There certainly were definitions when I was forecasting for national output-don't ask me though its over 35 years ago!