METO UK Further Outlook

[shuggee]

The milder southwesterly flow may return towards the end of the period with rain at times.

Oh dear.

[Stuart]

Yes Think it a o dear but i sure it will change

Edited December 5, 2009 by Stuart

[MAF]

Oh dear.

Oh dear indeed. but i think we are due another mild green winter shuggs.

[shuggee]

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Dec 2009 to Sunday 20 Dec 2009:

Most places are forecast to be dry on Friday as a ridge of high pressure builds with clear or bright spells and broken cloud layers. A few light showers possible along east and southeast coasts. Some mist and fog or frost patches are possible overnight. Some cloud and rain may approach western areas on Saturday, but central and eastern areas staying dry with overnight frost and mist. Through the first part of the week the drier more settled weather is likely to continue across the UK with cold southeast or easterly flow. This likely to give overnight frost and fog patches in many areas. The milder southwesterly flow may return towards the end of the week and the weekend with rain at times.

Updated: 1157 on Sun 6 Dec 2009

From:- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Ben_Cambs]

The Met's 6-15 day outlook will be very interesting over the next few days

Edited December 6, 2009 by Snowman0697

[Thundery wintry showers]

UK Outlook for Saturday 12 Dec 2009 to Monday 21 Dec 2009:

The coming weekend should be essentially dry and fair across all parts of the United Kingdom, with a mix of sunshine and broken cloud. However, it will feel quite cold, with patchy fog and frost affecting many areas overnight and into the mornings. Looking ahead to next week, the mainly dry and settled theme looks set to continue, although a brisk northerly breeze will bring occasional showers to northern and eastern areas. The breeze will make it feel increasingly cold, despite some sunshine, with frost often quite widespread morning and night. The cold but mainly settled theme is likely to continue through next weekend and the start of the following week, although showers in the north and east are likely to turn increasingly wintry.

Updated: 1201 on Mon 7 Dec 2009

I note their "brisk northerly breeze" comment with interest. It seems clear to me that they expect one of those shortwaves to run down to the east of Britain pulling in a northerly flow that will increasingly draw in some of that colder air from the northeast (hence "showers are likely to turn increasingly wintry").

[Stuart]

Now that world be nice in time for xmas

Thanks for updateing it for me

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Dec 2009 to Tuesday 22 Dec 2009:

After a cold and frosty start, this Sunday will be dry and fair across much of the United Kingdom, although patches of fog are likely to linger for much of the day across some inland areas. From Monday to Wednesday, the mainly dry, cold and settled weather is expected to continue in the south and west, while it turns increasing breezy and showery towards the north and east. For the rest of the period, it's likely to turn even colder with widespread frost at night and a mix of sunshine and scattered wintry showers by day. The showers should be generally most prevalent towards the north and east of Britain, where they are likely to fall increasingly as sleet or snow, even to low levels by next weekend.

Updated: 1255 on Tue 8 Dec 2009

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

[Frosty.]

A more encouraging meto update today which backs the gfs and thankfully not what the ecm 00z op run showed. Sleet & snow showers becoming widespread in the north & east during the second half of next week with much colder air and frosty nights. It suggests a slow build up to a potentially wintry spell.

[Weather-history]

. The showers should be generally most prevalent towards the north and east of Britain, where they are likely to fall increasingly as sleet or snow, even to low levels by next weekend.

Is it me or does that sound more like a northerly flow than an easterly flow?

Edited December 8, 2009 by Mr_Data

[Don]

Is it me or does that sound more like a northerly flow than an easterly flow?

I think that does sound more like a northerly flow than an easterly with south eastern areas not seeing much in the way of snow. However, it's still a nice outlook for coldies. Just hope they don't backtrack like they had to do in February this year.

[Paul Sherman]

Kevin They are just Ultra Cautious and Conservative as you know, remember it is only 3 days ago that they had Mild SW Winds and Rain for the 20th :ph34r:

They wont go into details much like the BBC Until at least 48 hours b4 hand

Still reckon the ECM Will win and there Ultra Cautious approach will stand them in good stead

Paul S

[Frosty.]

Is it me or does that sound more like a northerly flow than an easterly flow?

NE'ly maybe :unsure:

[johnholmes]

Kevin They are just Ultra Cautious and Conservative as you know, remember it is only 3 days ago that they had Mild SW Winds and Rain for the 20th

They wont go into details much like the BBC Until at least 48 hours b4 hand

Still reckon the ECM Will win and there Ultra Cautious approach will stand them in good stead

Paul S

come on Paul let's have a bit of accuracy about what was actually printed?

I'll accept they are cautious-why not-they have much much more data to assimilate and much more experience than 99% on here to do it.

What they actually posted, I think it was Friday was this

'The milder southwesterly flow may return towards the end of the week and the weekend with rain at times.'

[Paul Sherman]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Dec 2009 to Friday 18 Dec 2009:

An unsettled start with showers or longer spells of rain, some of which will be heavy in the north and west. It will be windy with gales in the north and west and some snow over the Scottish mountains. Temperatures mostly near normal but milder in the south. From Friday (11th) to Sunday (13th) many northern and western parts of the UK continue unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, again heavy at times. Southern and eastern parts are likely to see drier weather but with some overnight fog and frost. Temperatures mostly near normal but mild at times in the south and colder later in parts of the north. From Monday (14th) until Friday (18th) it looks like staying unsettled with further rain at times.

Updated: 1120 on Fri 4 Dec 2009

Yep my mistake John, I was referring to the Friday Update and not the Sunday One. So 4 days ago instead of 2. The 18th and not the 20th.

Still something major must have happened for them to not even notice this was possible, or can it really turn like that in just 2 days ?

Paul S

[johnholmes]

The Chief Forecaster has something like 8 models to look at, he then has to decide which of them is the most likely given his understanding of how they operate. Narrowing it down to 3 or 4 including the UK Met more detailed model, which we do not see, but I had sight of for over 9 months, and you will sometimes see comments about it from Ian Fergusson, gives a better idea on cloud cover, precip, temps etc etc closer in. Looking 6-15 days ahead, and I'm not overly impressed some weekends with their output and have said so, they have to strike a balance. In their techie discussion giving advice to other professional and media outputs he will give his view of which is the more likely to occur.

The Medium Range Forecaster then adds his pennyworth' to the mix before its used by forecasters and media presenters-if its like the 'old days' woe betide any Met media forecaster who does not toe the party line. As Ian has commented there is a link up several times a day to ensure all are singing from the same hymn sheet. Obviously for non Met staff that degree of direction is not possible although I suspect there may be acid comments in the briefing at times!

hope that helps give some background.

Edited December 8, 2009 by johnholmes

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Dec 2009 to Wednesday 23 Dec 2009:

On Monday, cold with slow-clearing mist or fog in the south and west although there is a risk of showers or outbreaks of rain, turning to snow over higher ground, in the north and east through the day. Remaining cold and mostly dry in many areas through the rest of the week although there is the potential for blustery wintry showers especially across northern and eastern parts. The nights will be frosty in many places with some persistent fog or freezing fog also forming. From Saturday and for the rest of the period it is likely to remain cold or even very cold and rather breezy at times. It could also turn more unsettled bringing a further risk of snow showers, especially to northern and eastern parts.

Updated: 1153 on Wed 9 Dec 2009

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

hmmm interesting! - doesn't really go hand in hand with the UKMO output earlier, looks more based on the 06z GFS output. Still up in the air to me.

[Don]

Not quite the snowfest some are hoping for, but pretty good anyway! Although, obviously details are going to be very sketchy at this stage. Forecast at odds with D Bett who apparently said it would turn milder next week?

Edited December 9, 2009 by Don

[FetchCB]

"UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Dec 2009 to Thursday 24 Dec 2009:

It will be cold or rather cold at first, with showers which may be prolonged at times across northern and eastern parts and perhaps moving into central areas at times. Some showers likely to fall as sleet or snow. Overnight frost is likely in many areas with fog in places. By the end of the week and over the weekend, staying cold or perhaps even turning very cold, with an increased risk of longer spells of sleet and snow. It is also likely to be windy at times making it feel even colder. At this stage, the cold and unsettled weather seems likely continue after next weekend with more spells of rain, sleet and snow, especially in the north and east.

Updated: 1150 on Thu 10 Dec 2009"

slowly coming round to the idea

[Iceberg]

Thanks a fantastic outlook given they have access to the full spread of ECM EPS outputs.

Thanks for that bit of good news.

Matt

[Don]

Another good update. As I said yesterday, hope we don't see any backtracks! I do have a feeling that IF this comes off, my area will miss most of the snow as was often the case during the long cold Winter of 1995/96. Certainly a snowfest for many though.

[The watcher]

Not such a good forecast for me in regards to snow, but that is the difficulty with Easterly cold spells in my area. I have to hope either a battleground scenario/front comes through or cold uppers are cold enough to induce convection over the relatively mild Irish Sea (as happened in 2007/2008 winter).

I do however fance my chances for snow in the next 2 weeks, in the 36hr cold spell that was early last week I could see some sea convection taking place with only -5 uppers, a few light wintry showers ensued. So given the chance of -9/10 from the cold spell, certainly more potent showers would occur, slower moving and over a greater area.

[keithlucky]

Not such a good forecast for me in regards to snow, but that is the difficulty with Easterly cold spells in my area. I have to hope either a battleground scenario/front comes through or cold uppers are cold enough to induce convection over the relatively mild Irish Sea (as happened in 2007/2008 winter).

I do however fance my chances for snow in the next 2 weeks, in the 36hr cold spell that was early last week I could see some sea convection taking place with only -5 uppers, a few light wintry showers ensued. So given the chance of -9/10 from the cold spell, certainly more potent showers would occur, slower moving and over a greater area.

Various websites are still talking about more prolong snow thursday friday with a biting easterly wind .

[andymusic]

Latest Meto long range update:-

It will be cold or rather cold at first, with showers which may be prolonged at times across northern and eastern parts and perhaps moving into central areas at times. Some showers likely to fall as sleet or snow. Overnight frost is likely in many areas with fog in places. By the end of the week and over the weekend, staying cold or perhaps even turning very cold, with an increased risk of longer spells of sleet and snow. It is also likely to be windy at times making it feel even colder. At this stage, the cold and unsettled weather seems likely continue after next weekend with more spells of rain, sleet and snow, especially in the north and east.