White Christmas

[I remember Atlantic 252]

i really cant see a white Xmas most likely be warm and windy, weve not really had an autumn, so the SW gales all through december and january

i only think there is a chance of a cold spell when mentioned on bbc tv weather at half 6 then i look forward to it, otherwise its much too far away and, id say fi is 4 days and more away

[Joneseye]

we've not really had an autumn, so the SW gales all through december and january

Hi Mark,

I have to disagree with your comment, as far as I am concerned we have had the first proper autumn in many years, unfortunately we have become accustomed to zonal weather throughout the year over recent times.

As for SW gales I suspect you may well be right!

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Well, the amount of data avaliable to me is severly restricted! I have the most basic models and most basic range. However up until 2 weeks within the month of December i will be making weekly updates on My XMAS day forecast.

The CFS chart shows a potent northerly wind. Very cold, possible ICE day in many areas, using my judgement. Not as cold as it otentially could bge as winds do not come direct from Arctic Centre, however still some significantly colder air. We could expect Widspread snow, bands of snow and significant distruption, so not very good, semeing as im flying on Boxing Day to further south. The best chances of Snow from this chart is the North East and North West. So, current CFS charts do suggest cold weather, but at this range this is just a very poorly backed guess. However i wouldnt be suprised if we do see snow, seeming as our weather this year has been exceptionally cool.

But unfortunately there is some down points, unfortunately. We do need to see a significant cool down of our surrounding waters orelse the coasts could be unlucky. Seeming as there is now just over 5 weeks till the big day, we need signifcant cooling for the coast to possibly fair decently from this spell. This process has begun, thankfully to the east and hopefully more will come of this but the atlantic is the main area of concern here, (+5 across NE Canada and around (+2 off coast of UK) so you can see my point!

The NAO is seeming to develop a pattern of late. Mid month and early/late month we see a negative NAO, well atleast over last few months, so hopefully we can get a negative one around XMAS which will mean SNOW, well not neccessarily but a negative NAO points towards low pressure to SW and High pressure to NW which would instantly point to the CFS chart, with High pressure near enough to ICeland, well forming a block and 'TRAPPING' low pressure to the East forcing down cold northerlies. essentially though we cannot trend match, but there is definate chance of a reasonable chance of a cold snap in the near future, hoepfully towards christmas.

Rish Assessments of a White Xmas (based at the moment on latitude, and past chances etc.)

Scotland- 40%

England (north) - 35%

England (south) - 25%

Ireland - 25%

Wales - 30%

Obviously, you may be thinking these dont match my above forecast but i am being realistic here, and at this range it would be very inporfessional of me to create any further mis hope lol.

Well i will update hoepfully sooner rather than later, and i apologise in advance for any spelling mistakes, but i am tired and cant be bothered to check it! The charts below are the charts i used.

Many Thanks

SNOW-MAN2006

[Stuart]

Christmas 2007 - Friday, 16 Nov 2007

Christmas 2007

Could it be a white one?

Eyes down for a full Christmas forecast!

Our forecasters believe that high pressure is likely to be to the north or northeast of the country during the run up to Christmas. The result of this is that much of Scotland and perhaps northern England may be fine and rather frosty, with a risk of some fog. Probably fair too for much of western Wales and Ireland.

However, for central and southern England, together with eastern Wales a raw east wind could make it feel very cold. There is a risk of some showery outbreaks, and because of the cold there is a distinct possibility that these may be wintry.

There is currently little to indicate that this overall pressure pattern will change much through Christmas. So, yes, we are predicting that Christmas 2007 may well be cold, albeit it rather cloudy, and there is a chance of one or two wintry flurries, especially over central and southern England!

In the run up to New Year there is possibility that the winds will turn more northeasterly as high pressure moves west. If this happenslow pressure may break through with the weather turning more unsettled. Still rather cold so the threat of more widespread wintry showers into 2008.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/feature/2007/11/16_sk.htm

Edited November 16, 2007 by Stuart H

[jethro]

Just checked out Paddy Power, this time last year odds for white crimbo in London were 8/1, up to the week before they never got lower than 6/1, today they stand at 4/1. Mmmm, wonder who they listen to.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Just checked out Paddy Power, this time last year odds for white crimbo in London were 8/1, up to the week before they never got lower than 6/1, today they stand at 4/1. Mmmm, wonder who they listen to.

Daily Express lol

[johnholmes]

the link below gives the latest from the daily raw CFS output,3 out of the last 8 have suggested a 528 Xmas for some part of the UK, and 7 out of the last 15 have done so.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1107226

[Stuart]

paul when will the White Christmas forecast be update

[Paul]

Xmas forecast just updated:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...type=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

that bad news but things can still change

[I remember Atlantic 252]

yeah really bad news but that date is 15th nov 00z so time for a change but i fear we are in for a warm xmas as our last 3 xmases have not had mild sw winds and rain, we are due a zonal xmas

[Don]

yeah really bad news but that date is 15th nov 00z so time for a change but i fear we are in for a warm xmas as our last 3 xmases have not had mild sw winds and rain, we are due a zonal xmas

No, it hasn't been a particularly good week for Winter prospects has it? What with the updated Met Office forecast still predicting a mild Winter with established La Nina conditions likely to last all the way through Winter.

Edited November 22, 2007 by Don

[Stratos Ferric]

Just checked out Paddy Power, this time last year odds for white crimbo in London were 8/1, up to the week before they never got lower than 6/1, today they stand at 4/1. Mmmm, wonder who they listen to.

Probably nobody and just respondoing to the market. There are plenty of numptys willing to part with good money on the basis that it's been cold this week so it's bound to be even colder five weeks hence. It usually ends up around 5/1 as we get out of FI; far too short statistically, but then what do you expect from a bookie?

[Potent Gust]

I think this autumn has been the most seasonal for a number of years. I am hopeful that this will continue for the winter. I base this assumption on nothing more than a good old fashioned 'gut' feeling! Trust me

Edited November 23, 2007 by Potent Gust

[Thunder Snow]

Anyway the big day is not far away now, and there is one question on everyones lips, will it be a white one.Whether it white, green, cold or mild, find out here.

As im not very good at forecasting weather well in advance, but im guessing it will be unsettled, but green. Although i would love to see my first white xmas.

Anyways i will post the NW forecast for winter if thats ok with everyone.

[Paul]

Xmas forecast updated!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...type=xmas;sess=

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Xmas forecast updated!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...type=xmas;sess=

I think that chart is going to be very close to the mark Paul. Mild Christmas and pretty stormy...quite a few of us alternative forecasters go for that set up too:) That means it will be bitter then

BFTP

[stormchaser1]

My Pre Xmas Forecast

FULL MOON ON THE 24TH DECEMBER

DEC 24TH

Windy, Cold at night and early morning , with a possibility for a slight frost on Xmas day, Also we could see some kind of Precipitation on this day

DEC 25TH [ XMAS DAY]

Slight breeze, but dry, cold very early hours again possibility for a slight frost

DEC 26TH BOXING DAY

Slight breeze remaining dry, however again cold at night and early morning ,

SUMMARY

Cold during the night and early hours, with a slight breeze 25th/ 26th/ remaining dry

Unfortunately i cannot see any SNOW falling on xmas day or Boxing day at this presant time, Best chance for Snow to fall Xmas Eve my odds for a White Xmas very Low

Very stormy New year

Nigel

[Paul]

Xmas forecast updated

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...type=xmas;sess=

[Mark Bayley]

I have a 25% risk of snow Look forward to the next update

Edited December 5, 2007 by mark bayley

[Stuart]

Fairly low chance of snow

Forecast headline

The latest update suggests an increased chance of a White Christmas for southern areas, and the same chance as was previously expected for northern parts. There are currently some suggestions from medium range forecasting models that high pressure will build to the north east of the UK. If this does happen in the run up to Christmas it could allow some very cold air from the east to filter across western Europe and possibly reach the UK. This would give a chance of snow, most probably to eastern and south eastern areas.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the UK are considered to have a 30% chance of a white christmas.

Southern areas of the UK are considered to have a 25% chance of a white christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 09/09/2007

Update 2, 10/10/2007

Update 3, 14/10/2007

Update 4, 11/11/2007

Update 5, 05/12/2007

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/...x?type=for_xmas

Edited December 6, 2007 by Stuart H

[mezzacyclone]

Odds holding at generally 6-1 for english cities,

Scots @ 4-1 and 11-4,

Although I sense these will shorten quite firmly during next week?

Particularly if the continental air comes into the equation - as being mentioned in the model discussion squawk box thread.

[sapgem]

The true betting odds (without the bookies cut) are best reflected by those on matched betting websites, where punters bet against each other. The current best odds for a White Christmas in London are 7.4:1, down from 8:1 this morning (I put £9 on at 8:1).

[mezzacyclone]

The true betting odds (without the bookies cut) are best reflected by those on matched betting websites, where punters bet against each other. The current best odds for a White Christmas in London are 7.4:1, down from 8:1 this morning (I put £9 on at 8:1).

It'll be no earlier than T+144 before I cover bet with NO white xmas on Betfair and the like but I agree in that its a better feeling to wager on who or what you prefer even if its the massive outsider so I applaud your 8's their sapgem but i'm still licking my wounds from deciding on London instead of Norwich 2 years ago at sheer greed of longer odds between the two locations.

[Paul]

Christmas forecast updated - still a chance of a white one!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...type=xmas;sess=