December C.E.T

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

6.4C, in the last hour!

[J10]

Mainly JackO to be fair. But let's not overlook SB and the various others who compile the starting lists with scarcely even a prod.

Further to that, and to make the automated strip operate as smoothly as possible, can I suggest we adopt:

Name nn.nC, xxx

E.g. Stratos Ferric 06.4c, 077.

This just makes sure that values always appear at exactly the same location in the data string - hence the zeroes are vital, particularly re temperature in months when entries span 10.0 (anyone who sees the UKMO data files and wonders at fields with lots of 9s in will realise that they also use packing to make sure that entires are always in the same relative position in string).

Cheers SF but it was your idea for the comp, and it's a very good one, which not only recognises consistency with points for average error, but also is system which recognises scores which are within 0.5c, which IMO gives a good balance to a tricky situation.

I also agree with having the score in the format nn.nC.

[acbrixton]

6.5c for me please. Sorry haven't quite got the hang of the all-new-approved format...

regards

ACB

[Mammatus]

6.4C

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

14 mins to go guys

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Entries for December's CET competition are closed. 9 minutes ago...

[Stratos Ferric]

Entries for December's CET competition are closed. 9 minutes ago...

Correction.

They're NOT closed, but entries here on in attract a penalty of 10pts per day, or part thereof, which stays with the entrant right through the year.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Correction.

They're NOT closed, but entries here on in attract a penalty of 10pts per day, or part thereof, which stays with the entrant right through the year.

And that yeh

[geoffw]

where is wib?

[JohnAcc]

I've listed the entrants so far in the format required but I wasn't sure how to find out the members number (anyone any ideas?) Where has WIB gone? perhaps he couldn't bear post a mild CET guess

The average NW guess is 5.6c and the median of the data is 5.8c.

acbrixton 06.5c,

Anti-Mild 06.0c,

AtlanticFlamethrower 05.9c,

Barry 03.1c,

beng 04.0c,

Blast From The Past 06.2c,

BristolBlizzard 07.3c,

Cal 05.8c,

cheeky monkey 06.2c,

chionomaniac 04.7c,

Craig Evans 08.8c,

Cymru 05.8c,

damianslaw 05.2c,

David Snow 06.1c,

derby4life 05.3c,

Devon-Nelly 05.2c,

don 06.0c,

DR Hosking 06.2c,

Duncan McAlister 06.5c,

eddie 06.4c,

fishdude 04.0c,

Gavin P 05.1c,

Glacier Point 06.0c,

Great Plum 06.0c,

happy days 07.1c,

HighPressure 06.3c,

HomerJ 05.2c,

IRON-BRU 06.7c,

JACKONE 06.1c,

James M 05.5c,

Johnacc 06.1c,

Joneseye 05.9c,

Jonnie G 05.7c,

Kentish Man 06.6c,

kold weather 06.1c,

La Nina 04.4c,

LadyPakal 05.2c, 161

mam500 03.7c,

Mammatus 06.4c,

mark bayley 05.8c,

mark forster 06.3c,

MarkH 06.2c,

Matty M 06.4c,

Megamoonflake 5.8c,

memories of 63 05.0c,

Mike W 06.0c,

mk13 06.1c,

Mr Data 05.9c,

Mr Maunder 05.7c,

mufc 04.2c,

ned 06.1c,

neforum2 05.4c,

Nick F 06.0c,

noggin 04.9c,

Norrance 05.2c,

Optimus Prime 04.8c,

Osbourne One-Nil 05.7c,

osmposm 05.2c, 164

Paul 06.1c,

Paul B 06.2c,

Paul Sherman 06.4c,

paul tall 01.1c,

PersianPaladin 06.5c,

phil n.warks 05.7c,

Plate 05.1c,

Polar Continental 03.5c,

Potent Gust 04.8c,

pottyprof 05.8c,

Rain Rain Rain 06.4c,

Redshift 06.1c, 153

reef 06.6c,

richarddx7 04.1c,

Rojer J Smith 05.5c,

Rollo 05.9c,

shuggee 05.8c,

skwales100 04.5c,

slipknotsam 06.0c,

Snooz 04.8c,

snowmaiden 05.1c,

Snow-Man2006 05.0c,

snowsure 04.8c,

Snowyowl9 04.9c,

Somerset Squall 06.1c,

Stargazer 06.2c,

Steady Easterly 05.7c,

Stephen Prudence 07.0c,

Steve Murr 06.3c,

SteveB 05.2c,

Stormforce10 02.1c,

Stratos Ferric 06.5c,

Stu London 05.5c,

suffolkboy 05.1c,

summer blizzard 05.2c,

Summer of 95 04.9c,

sundog 05.2c,

swfc 06.5c,

Terminal Moraine 05.3c,

tesaro 06.3c,

The Enforcer 03.8c,

The Pit 05.9c,

Timbo 03.8c,

TimmyH 07.0c,

TomSE20 05.9c,

ukmoose 07.0c,

WBSH 06.0c,

windswept 06.3c,

xerxes 05.2c,

Rgds, John

[stormchaser1]

Drat and double drat,

i havent had time to look at the CET figure for this month ,been pretty much busy , looks like ive missed out this month , oh well looks like i will have too wait for next month now !

Nigel

[Stratos Ferric]

Drat and double drat,

i havent had time to look at the CET figure for this month ,been pretty much busy , looks like ive missed out this month , oh well looks like i will have too wait for next month now !

Nigel

No you haven't, you can still enter, albeit with a 10 point penalty!

I've listed the entrants so far in the format required but I wasn't sure how to find out the members number (anyone any ideas?) Where has WIB gone? perhaps he couldn't bear post a mild CET guess

The average NW guess is 5.6c and the median of the data is 5.8c.

....

Rgds, John

John, thanks for that. It wasn't member number but post number that was needed, so that we know the sequence of entry and can split tied guesses. I'm sure someone will sort out the detail.

[Polar Gael]

A very late 5.5C for me please.

Edited December 1, 2007 by Polar Gael

[JohnAcc]

John, thanks for that. It wasn't member number but post number that was needed, so that we know the sequence of entry and can split tied guesses. I'm sure someone will sort out the detail.

Here is the list with post number added.

acbrixton 06.5c, 180

Anti-Mild 06.0c, 080

AtlanticFlamethrower 05.9c, 140

Barry 03.1c, 019

beng 04.0c, 155

Blast From The Past 06.2c, 170

BristolBlizzard 07.3c, 091

Cal 05.8c, 105

cheeky monkey 06.2c, 123

chionomaniac 04.7c, 066

Craig Evans 08.8c, 004

Cymru 05.8c, 056

damianslaw 05.2c, 109

David Snow 06.1c, 057

derby4life 05.3c, 077

Devon-Nelly 05.2c, 122

don 06.0c, 103

DR Hosking 06.2c, 159

Duncan McAlister 06.5c, 102

eddie 06.4c, 095

fishdude 04.0c, 040

Gavin P 05.1c, 130

Glacier Point 06.0c, 162

Great Plum 06.0c, 160

happy days 07.1c, 156

HighPressure 06.3c, 173

HomerJ 05.2c, 107

IRON-BRU 06.7c, 169

JACKONE 06.1c, 177

James M 05.5c, 100

Johnacc 06.1c, 163

Joneseye 05.9c, 166

Jonnie G 05.7c, 145

Kentish Man 06.6c, 119

kold weather 06.1c, 141

La Nina 04.4c, 111

LadyPakal 05.2c, 161

mam500 03.7c, 049

Mammatus 06.4c, 181

mark bayley 05.8c, 168

mark forster 06.3c, 054

MarkH 06.2c, 176

Matty M 06.4c, 058

Megamoonflake 5.8c, 136

memories of 63 05.0c, 034

Mike W 06.0c, 074

mk13 06.1c, 126

Mr Data 05.9c, 084

Mr Maunder 05.7c, 158

mufc 04.2c, 027

ned 06.1c, 157

neforum2 05.4c, 045

Nick F 06.0c, 139

noggin 04.9c, 117

Norrance 05.2c, 142

Optimus Prime 04.8c, 047

Osbourne One-Nil 05.7c, 060

osmposm 05.2c, 164

Paul 06.1c, 172

Paul B 06.2c, 042

Paul Sherman 06.4c, 135

paul tall 01.1c, 061

PersianPaladin 06.5c, 013

phil n.warks 05.7c, 175

Plate 05.1c, 026

Polar Continental 03.5c, 167

Polar Gael 05.5c, 190 (1 Day Late)

Potent Gust 04.8c, 025

pottyprof 05.8c, 083

Rain Rain Rain 06.4c, 178

Redshift 06.1c, 153

reef 06.6c, 154

richarddx7 04.1c, 031

Rojer J Smith 05.5c, 071

Rollo 05.9c, 079

shuggee 05.8c, 127

skwales100 04.5c, 014

slipknotsam 06.0c, 120

Snooz 04.8c, 075

snowmaiden 05.1c, 065

Snow-Man2006 05.0c, 108

snowsure 04.8c, 106

Snowyowl9 04.9c, 076

Somerset Squall 06.1c, 082

Stargazer 06.2c, 115

Steady Easterly 05.7c, 124

Stephen Prudence 07.0c, 110

Steve Murr 06.3c, 137

SteveB 05.2c, 055

Stormforce10 02.1c, 009

Stratos Ferric 06.5c, 152

Stu London 05.5c, 150

suffolkboy 05.1c, 068

summer blizzard 05.2c, 131

Summer of 95 04.9c, 125

sundog 05.2c, 064

swfc 06.5c, 067

Terminal Moraine 05.3c, 171

tesaro 06.3c, 104

The Enforcer 03.8c, 007

The Pit 05.9c, 097

Timbo 03.8c, 069

TimmyH 07.0c, 174

TomSE20 05.9c, 116

ukmoose 07.0c, 143

WBSH 06.0c, 144

windswept 06.3c, 059

xerxes 05.2c, 072

Rgds, John

[JohnAcc]

Here is a graph of the December CET plotted against the Dec AO indicies. Current projections for the Dec AO are to be in the region of -0.6 to -0.8 which would point to a CET of around 4.9c. A very bold call from where we are today!

Rgds, John

[stormchaser1]

Afternoon everyone

A very very late Punt from me {which is unusual)

Can you put me down for 5.25c please

, Been very busy just lately especially last week with the arrival of our Grandson!

Nigel

[Snowly does it]

I'll point out now that I am at least one degree too low at 5.1, this is going to be a stinker of a December for cold lovers I am afraid.

I am ruling out below average at 1.15 on December 1st

[JohnAcc]

Updated List..................

acbrixton 06.5c, 180

Anti-Mild 06.0c, 080

AtlanticFlamethrower 05.9c, 140

Barry 03.1c, 019

beng 04.0c, 155

Blast From The Past 06.2c, 170

BristolBlizzard 07.3c, 091

Cal 05.8c, 105

cheeky monkey 06.2c, 123

chionomaniac 04.7c, 066

Craig Evans 08.8c, 004

Cymru 05.8c, 056

damianslaw 05.2c, 109

David Snow 06.1c, 057

derby4life 05.3c, 077

Devon-Nelly 05.2c, 122

don 06.0c, 103

DR Hosking 06.2c, 159

Duncan McAlister 06.5c, 102

eddie 06.4c, 095

fishdude 04.0c, 040

Gavin P 05.1c, 130

Glacier Point 06.0c, 162

Great Plum 06.0c, 160

happy days 07.1c, 156

HighPressure 06.3c, 173

HomerJ 05.2c, 107

IRON-BRU 06.7c, 169

JACKONE 06.1c, 177

James M 05.5c, 100

Johnacc 06.1c, 163

Joneseye 05.9c, 166

Jonnie G 05.7c, 145

Kentish Man 06.6c, 119

kold weather 06.1c, 141

La Nina 04.4c, 111

LadyPakal 05.2c, 161

mam500 03.7c, 049

Mammatus 06.4c, 181

mark bayley 05.8c, 168

mark forster 06.3c, 054

MarkH 06.2c, 176

Matty M 06.4c, 058

Megamoonflake 5.8c, 136

memories of 63 05.0c, 034

Mike W 06.0c, 074

mk13 06.1c, 126

Mr Data 05.9c, 084

Mr Maunder 05.7c, 158

mufc 04.2c, 027

ned 06.1c, 157

neforum2 05.4c, 045

Nick F 06.0c, 139

noggin 04.9c, 117

Norrance 05.2c, 142

Optimus Prime 04.8c, 047

Osbourne One-Nil 05.7c, 060

osmposm 05.2c, 164

Paul 06.1c, 172

Paul B 06.2c, 042

Paul Sherman 06.4c, 135

paul tall 01.1c, 061

PersianPaladin 06.5c, 013

phil n.warks 05.7c, 175

Plate 05.1c, 026

Polar Continental 03.5c, 167

Polar Gael 05.5c, 190 (1 Day Late)

Potent Gust 04.8c, 025

pottyprof 05.8c, 083

Rain Rain Rain 06.4c, 178

Redshift 06.1c, 153

reef 06.6c, 154

richarddx7 04.1c, 031

Rojer J Smith 05.5c, 071

Rollo 05.9c, 079

shuggee 05.8c, 127

skwales100 04.5c, 014

slipknotsam 06.0c, 120

Snooz 04.8c, 075

snowmaiden 05.1c, 065

Snow-Man2006 05.0c, 108

snowsure 04.8c, 106

Snowyowl9 04.9c, 076

Somerset Squall 06.1c, 082

Stargazer 06.2c, 115

Steady Easterly 05.7c, 124

Stephen Prudence 07.0c, 110

Steve Murr 06.3c, 137

SteveB 05.2c, 055

stormchaser 05.3c, 193 (1 day late)

Stormforce10 02.1c, 009

Stratos Ferric 06.5c, 152

Stu London 05.5c, 150

suffolkboy 05.1c, 068

summer blizzard 05.2c, 131

Summer of 95 04.9c, 125

sundog 05.2c, 064

swfc 06.5c, 067

Terminal Moraine 05.3c, 171

tesaro 06.3c, 104

The Enforcer 03.8c, 007

The Pit 05.9c, 097

Timbo 03.8c, 069

TimmyH 07.0c, 174

TomSE20 05.9c, 116

ukmoose 07.0c, 143

WBSH 06.0c, 144

windswept 06.3c, 059

xerxes 05.2c, 072

Rgds, John

[VillagePlank]

5.5Cfor me. Sorry about my lateness, sir.

Edited December 1, 2007 by VillagePlank

[summer blizzard]

Unfortunately my computer is broken, so while i am able to read the data needed to make my punts, i had to guess in regards to seasonal ajjustment, thus if i extrapolated wrongly, my 5.2C prediction may be too low, though no higher than 6.4C.

Given the new system favouring early predictions, may i suggest that the thread only be opened on the 20th from now on, otherwise the date may vary as it currewntly does.

In regards to a possible colling trend, the anomolitic trend from August to September was +0.9C, however September to October was +0.4C, followed by +0.2C for October to November, indicating a cooling trend, albeight a slowing one and still biased above average.

In regards to the CET lists, i will update them in the system you desire when the January thread opens, i personally try update when the thread goes onto the next page, but i am sure others will also update the lists as well.

[ukmoose]

I'll point out now that I am at least one degree too low at 5.1, this is going to be a stinker of a December for cold lovers I am afraid.

I am ruling out below average at 1.15 on December 1st

Don't worry SM, all winter months are stinkers now. C'est la vie.

Moose

[tinybill]

hi sorry im late 9.2

[Stratos Ferric]

CET_entry_list_2007_12_v01.xls

John Acc's list, sorted by order of guess value.

Edited December 2, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[Somerset Squall]

Where has WIB gone? perhaps he couldn't bear post a mild CET guess :lol:

Amusing as that is, WIB is indeed in the list and he has gone for a cold month. His new name is La Nina. No-one knows you anymore Richard!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Oops, apologies, I totally forgot about this! A two-day penalty is imminent but I can take it. I'll probably get more flak for the prediction I'm going to come out with...

7.4C