December C.E.T

[shuggee]

Decembers warmer than Novembers - any stats Mr D?

[Roger J Smith]

Plees spel mie name rite if ewe donet mynd

[Don]

Oops, apologies, I totally forgot about this! A two-day penalty is imminent but I can take it. I'll probably get more flak for the prediction I'm going to come out with...

7.4C

Ooh, yuck!

No offence, but I hope you'll be at least 1.5C too high! I have read your December forecast and I have to say it makes a pretty grim read.

[JohnAcc]

Decembers warmer than Novembers - any stats Mr D?

There have been 41 instances in the CET series where Dec has returned a higher figure than Nov. The last 10 being:-

1993 (Cold Nov @ 4.6)

1988 (Mild Dec @ 7.5)

1985 (Cold Nov @ 4.1 plus mild Dec @ 6.3)

1974 (Mild Dec @ 8.1)

1971

1965

1942

1934

1923

1921

Rgds, John

[The Calm before the Storm]

Oops! Late again......

I reckon it's gonna be 6.5c. A very mild first half followed by an average second half.

[Stratos Ferric]

According to young Mr Eden it's 7.6C and +1.8 to last night. Probably about 17.6C and +11.9 after today's basting. Belfast felt more like late April than early December. Looking like a fun flight in the box tomorrow night, and even better on Thursday morning.

[kold weather]

So far then we've had a cooler start then December 2000 which had a very mild first 15 days. Its a safe bet though that by the end of Thursday we'll be getting towards double figures if not reaching those heights

will be interesting to see whether we can get a correction like Dec 2000 as well which ended up not all that far away from average given how mild the first 15 days were and also interesting to see whether the second half is relative cooler then the first hal to its norm like the last few months!

Edited December 4, 2007 by kold weather

[Stratos Ferric]

So far then we've had a cooler start then December 2000 which had a very mild first 15 days. Its a safe bet though that by the end of Thursday we'll be getting towards double figures if not reaching those heights

will be interesting to see whether we can get a correction like Dec 2000 as well which ended up not all that far away from average given how mild the first 15 days were and also interesting to see whether the second half is relative cooler then the first hal to its norm like the last few months!

We're also well inside last year, but some mild days to come until Friday. More worryingly, particularly looking polewards, I'm not seeing any real prospects for sustained cold.

[Stu_London]

We're also well inside last year, but some mild days to come until Friday. More worryingly, particularly looking polewards, I'm not seeing any real prospects for sustained cold.

Suggest you have another look at the models

Meantime www.climate-uk.com has us at a yucky 7.9C for the first 4 days - not much downward movement before friday either

[Stratos Ferric]

Suggest you have another look at the models

Meantime www.climate-uk.com has us at a yucky 7.9C for the first 4 days - not much downward movement before friday either

Clearly Stu you're doing that WiB thing of looking through blue tinted specs! I see no sustained cold.

[Stu_London]

Clearly Stu you're doing that WiB thing of looking through blue tinted specs! I see no sustained cold.

Wouldn't describe them as mild either after the weekend

[Stratos Ferric]

Wouldn't describe them as mild either after the weekend

To be fair looking average for a few days. The devil in the detail will be meandering warm sector air and how far north it gets - the situation is still very mobile and cold nights can generally be ruled out. Mid term and beyond, for all that it's FI, does look very mild.

Look at the HP just wanting to build in the W though on December 21st. White christmas anyone?

[Optimus Prime]

Look at the HP just wanting to build in the W though on December 21st. White christmas anyone?

I think that got the SATSIGS pin needle jerking, the slightest ramp in this mild muck will be picked out with comfortable ease.

Well my average is currently 9.3c and a whopping 3.8c above normal, entirely due to the minima of 11.4c last night!

[Nick F]

My punt of 6.0C is looking a bit too low now looking at the 00z runs showing mild Swerlies all the way after Monday - those sub 5.1C ('71-'00) decidedly so, anyone for a record warm December :o

Having said that, it looks fairly chilly over the weekend and next Monday - so a slight lowering from the rather high 8.8C currently on Manley.

[Stratos Ferric]

My punt of 6.0C is looking a bit too low now looking at the 00z runs showing mild Swerlies all the way after Monday - those sub 5.1C ('71-'00) decidedly so, anyone for a record warm December

Having said that, it looks fairly chilly over the weekend and next Monday - so a slight lowering from the rather high 8.8C currently on Manley.

By tomorrow we'll be nudging the point at which we need a degree below long term par every day to get back to average by the end of the month. A big ask already.

[West is Best]

By tomorrow we'll be nudging the point at which we need a degree below long term par every day to get back to average by the end of the month. A big ask already.

Keep at it ... law of averages says you'll be right more often than not. But you'll come a metereological cropper like September again ...!

Seriously: cold now in the offing both short term and FI. Looks interesting and no way to call it on 6th December

[kold weather]

Very hard to call how this one wil lgo as it all depends whether the Scandi block develops as far west as is currently progged. A shift eastwards gives us SW whilst a shift westwards puts us in a fairly cold easterly (though granted not blockbusting cold)

At the very least I should think we'll be below Dec 2000 CET by the 15th of December and that ended up at 5.8C so still hope for a CET fairly close to average I'd have thought....1C below average for the last 20 odd days is needing a decent cold spell but its still do able nowadays even in winter, take a look at December 05 which had an entire month close to 1C below average (well, 0.7C anyway!)

[Lettucing Gutted]

The above two posts contain some very brave predictions from Richard and Kevin. However I think this is a very big ask of the synoptics I think.

Edited December 6, 2007 by Craig Evans

[Stratos Ferric]

The above two posts contain some very brave predictions from Richard and Kevin. However I think this is a very big ask of the synoptics I think.

Yes, I rather liked kold's comment that made the bold presumption that we get a block anywhere E at all. We all know what to expect from WiB.

[Weather-history]

The warmest November to be followed by an even warmer December was in 1857 and 1898. both Novembers were 7.2 and both were followed by a December of 7.3

Whilst the coldest December to be warmer than the previous November was in 1782, November was 2.3 whilst December was 2.8

Edited December 7, 2007 by Mr_Data

[Kentish Man]

Manley now riding absurdly high at 9.2C (Dec 1 - 6).

Not quite sure how today will pan out - early evening temps last night were around 14C but most areas are now around 8C. So we have a very mild night followed by a cool day.

[Stratos Ferric]

Manley now riding absurdly high at 9.2C (Dec 1 - 6).

Not quite sure how today will pan out - early evening temps last night were around 14C but most areas are now around 8C. So we have a very mild night followed by a cool day.

Yes, one of those quirky examples of a topsy-turvy day, and evidence of how precise timing can nudge the overall average slightly because of the way the mean is calculated. On the other hand, over time, most of these effects should even out. November had a couple of days that netted 'too cool' in the same way.

[Gavin P]

I think tomorrow's update will show a slight dip downwards, or no change. 9.2 should be the peak for the month, IMO and we'll see a gradual drop over the next week.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

i went for 6.3C thought it was going to be miles too low, but may not be now if last few chart runs come off

[kold weather]

There looks like there going to be a rather large downward correction with a rather large stable high forming close to the UK in the middle of this week...whether or not it'll bring in cold enough air for snow is another matter but it'll be pretty cold regardless with daytimes maxes really suffering due to cloud cover and I'd have thought given past set-ups like this tmeps cold only rech 1-2C in fog...we could see quite a few days with CET's between 2-3.5C if this set-up comes off like currently progged.