White Christmas 08

[JRMcLeod]

That hotel manager is an idiot!!

Slightly silly, however, the mountains all around Dinnet (25miles from here) are covered in snow, the snow at the top of the slug road (300mtrs) has only just melted...i think there is a chance of seeing a flurry there on Christmas day...that neck of the woods, Upper Deeside is always colder and more wintry than Lower Deeside...i would probably bet it will have a snow flurry on Christmas Day

[snowingtequila]

I am interested in the sun being stronger now than in the past, by how much I wonder, this is not often talked about.

[Met4Cast]

I am interested in the sun being stronger now than in the past, by how much I wonder, this is not often talked about.

I think the sun is at its weakest for nearly 50 years at the moment. Sun cycle 23 has just ended and we are still waiting for sun cycle 24 to begin. The sun has been very quiet for the last couple of months with very few sunspots. Maybe this is the reason for such a cold start to winter?

[Stuart]

Snow unlikely

Forecast headline

Our twentieth forecast update suggests a low chance of a White Christmas across the country. We are now quite confident and we expect to be able to call the Christmas day weather VERY soon now. Once we've 'called' the weather it means that we don't expect to have to make any further significant changes to our forecast.

On Christmas day we expect high pressure to be covering the UK. This is likely to bring mostly dry weather, and it may well be on the cold side, particularly in the south. Some overnight frost is quite possible. Snow is unlikely.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 15% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 15% chance of a white Christmas

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforeca...20forecast.aspx

[Paul]

The Xmas forecast has been updated, and will be updated every day up to Christmas eve now B)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...type=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

Snow Forecast Issued: 2008-12-17 17:50:00

Next update: 2008-12-19 14:00:00

Regions Affected

The UK

Synopsis

Things are begining to become cleaer as we come much closer to the big day. There is still time for changes but that chance seems fairly low. The main models are suggesting HIGH Pressure being slap bang over the UK or near by so settled conditions are expected with sunshine widespread with some mist and fog early in the morning and then again by evening. It should be a cool day aswell but none or little precipitation and only then will it be very light. The best chance of a flurry would be in the Highlands of Scotland though even this risk is very low due to hardly any precipitation, therefore the risk is low. The North can expect temperatures of approximately 3-6c while the South will have around 5-7c though perhaps a little higher in the milder South West. A settled day is now likely with a fairly cool regime and dry everywhere with a risk of frost and fog in places.

http://ukasf.weather2day.com/index.php?nam...st-wc&id=33

Edited December 17, 2008 by Stuart

[Paul]

The Christmas forecast has been updated

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...type=xmas;sess=

[Snowmad79]

Ive Just had a go of the santa shaker and 15% chance of snow for england Ireland and wales is hilarious. Id say thats about 15% to high atm lol.

[clark3r]

Ive Just had a go of the santa shaker and 15% chance of snow for england Ireland and wales is hilarious. Id say thats about 15% to high atm lol.

looking at the gfs charts and the way they keep choping and changing day by day i would say the xmas forecast is still far from certain and prob wont be certain until sun/mon.

[snowingtequila]

Ive Just had a go of the santa shaker and 15% chance of snow for england Ireland and wales is hilarious. Id say thats about 15% to high atm lol.

I would say 15% is about right. A slight change in the location of the high pressure and a bit of movement here and there could bring a white christmas, about 15% chance seems fair. Unlikely but still just possible. To say it is hilarious seems a tad silly to me. Since 1981 I have had 6 white christmas's some when we ere told there as no chance at all.

[Snowmad79]

looking at the gfs charts and the way they keep choping and changing day by day i would say the xmas forecast is still far from certain and prob wont be certain until sun/mon.

Oh I know, Im not saying it is impossible to get snow on christmas day but Id still say the chances are closer to 0% rather than 15%

[I remember Atlantic 252]

id say at the moment looking at models, southern areas have a 10% chance of a white xmas, northern areas have a 0% chance of a white xmas

im not exactly a GP, JH etc but id say those percentages,

[moogyboobles]

Is there something wrong with the snow risk chart...it says 50% chance for me on Christmas night!

[Nick L]

Is there something wrong with the snow risk chart...it says 50% chance for me on Christmas night!

Nope not at all! The GFS 06z is showing -5 850hpa temperatures reaching the East by Christmas night, with an easterly breeze it could pick up some moisture and bring some snow flurries, nothing significant but it's still technically a white Christmas! Long, long, long way to go yet though.

[weathernewbie]

Is there something wrong with the snow risk chart...it says 50% chance for me on Christmas night!

Not at all likely in my opinion. Even the beautiful 06z doesn't provide much hope for crimbo snow.

[Lakes Tom]

Help!!! Could someone who knows a little more than me attempt to help me out! A few days ago the forecast temps for looking good for no snow in Oslo on Chritmas Eve....so i placed quite a big bet on this! Now things are looking a little more marginal. Looking at the GFS 850's, it looks as if temps will be around -2 - -4, with weather coming in from the west, wrapped around the high pressure! It also looks like a little low is gonna form around the high - not sure if this would bring any precipitation? But with temps marginal...............

I could lay the bet off and get out of it or should I stick with it?! Your thoughts would be most welcome! Cheers in advance............

Edited December 19, 2008 by Lakes Tom

[Paul]

Xmas forecast has been updated :lol:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...type=xmas;sess=

[mezzacyclone]

Bumping this topic up as all the focus regarding white xmas betting is being lobbed on the model discussion thread?

mezz attempts to coerce the yay sayers into the rite place?

Edited December 19, 2008 by mezzacyclone

[Matty M]

I took 10.5/1 on BF

Seeing as it is an untrue price, might lay off if the price moves in, can't see it going much higher as we move towards the day though so it isn't money lost YET!

[Nick L]

If I were 18 I would definitely put a few quid on London seeing a White Xmas, let's just put it that way!

[East Herts Snow]

I took 10.5/1 on BF

Seeing as it is an untrue price, might lay off if the price moves in, can't see it going much higher as we move towards the day though so it isn't money lost YET!

I was being matched at 14/1 two days ago, but been laying the no White Christmas bet as well.

I cannot believe people are still putting up such high odds!

Edited December 19, 2008 by North Londoner

[mezzacyclone]

I got burned for a long un with Norwich at 9/1 a couple of yrs ago so keeping my feet on the ground this year, I know the big guns are quick with their price changes but they arnt as quick with the impending ensembles so good luck fellas

[clark3r]

I was being matched at 14/1 two days ago, but been laying the no White Christmas bet as well.

I cannot believe people are still putting up such high odds!

i cant believe the oods are so good maybe they are trying to put people off because they might lose a alful lot of money

[East Herts Snow]

I got burned for a long un with Norwich at 9/1 a couple of yrs ago so keeping my feet on the ground this year, I know the big guns are quick with their price changes but they arnt as quick with the impending ensembles so good luck fellas

Yep, found my betting edge thanks to quick access to the charts.

However still only a smallish chance of a London White Christmas, but the best chance for many years.

Only needs one recorded snowflake on the London Weather centre.

[snowingman]

Yep, found my betting edge thanks to quick access to the charts.

However still only a smallish chance of a London White Christmas, but the best chance for many years.

Only needs one recorded snowflake on the London Weather centre.

just stuck £10 with betfair at 10-1, pretty amazing considering we are now in predictable range

also - giving free £10 bet - so nothing to loose""

small chance - if its greater than15% its odds on at 10-1

£100 not bad - all we need now is snow in the capital - I'm confident