White Christmas 08

[snowingtequila]

Reading back through the records and the weather forecasts for the 1947 winter (which are available somewhere online) it is fascinating how a thaw was forecast every other day, but it always stops around the midlands and turns round bringing more snow! I wonder how different the forecast would be now with modelling and increased knowldege of our weather and the fact that we look slightly further ahead than two days.

[johnholmes]

to be fair to Stuart all he is doing is posting the forecast each time its issued by that web site. No harm in him doing that surely?

[jemtom]

to be fair to Stuart all he is doing is posting the forecast each time its issued by that web site. No harm in him doing that surely?

There's no harm for some in Alligator wrestling, but I wouldn't do it and I think it's fair to question the wisdom and purpose of it....

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

JT. I understand where you are coming from, but the simplicity in the thread is this...surely there is no point in commenting if not positive or constructive?

What the point in numerous people writing negative comments? Even more pointless IMVHO.

[noggin]

I, too, appreciate this service which Stuart is providing. Surely if people don't think there is any point to it, then they can just avoid it, rather than being party-poopers.

Please continue to keep us updated, Stuart!

[maidstone weather]

Secondly if you are going to produce a forecast for 6-8 weeks hence, then do so and stick to it.

to my knowledge, most if not all of the forecasts Stuart has posted here has generally said there is a less than 50% chance of a White Christmas so far? Looking back through the various forecasts, they are all generally along the lines of wet and cool - surely that's sticking to it for the last 2 and a half months?

I think it's great that Stuart regularly updates us with updated forecasts from different organisations, i enjoy reading them. Keep up the good work Stuart

[Costa Del Fal]

I, too, appreciate this service which Stuart is providing. Surely if people don't think there is any point to it, then they can just avoid it, rather than being party-poopers.

Please continue to keep us updated, Stuart!

to my knowledge, most if not all of the forecasts Stuart has posted here has generally said there is a less than 50% chance of a White Christmas so far? Looking back through the various forecasts, they are all generally along the lines of wet and cool - surely that's sticking to it for the last 2 and a half months?

I think it's great that Stuart regularly updates us with updated forecasts from different organisations, i enjoy reading them. Keep up the good work Stuart

At last, the rights things beind said about these forecasts!

Its great of Stuart to keep this thread very up to date. If you dont like the forecasts, Tough and dont bother looking at them because of course its so much of a problem.

[Les Penniston]

the long range in 1947 was two days ahead and in 1962-63 possibly 2-3 days ahead but rarely any further. No such things as computers then, empirical forecasting was the only thing available,(similar events over many years observations and the probability then of the same), once a forecaster had manually drawn surface and upper air charts and used basic meteorology from UK Met Training School, as it was in those days, to produce a 'gridded' 1000-500mb-msl chart as a guide to where the major lows and highs might be in 24 hours!

Thanks for that John

Les

[ballybabe12]

At last, the rights things beind said about these forecasts!

Its great of Stuart to keep this thread very up to date. If you dont like the forecasts, Tough and dont bother looking at them because of course its so much of a problem.

Keep up the good work Stuart.

[Paul]

The Netweather xmas outlook has been updated:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...type=xmas;sess=

I can't speak for other forecasts, but as you'll see by the text in our forecast we're following trends painted by the CFS without getting into specifics as it's clearly too far out for that, and are trying to give a fun and interesting outlook for the big day as well as giving some info on what it may be like, no harm in that I would suggest!

[SNOWPLOUGH]

The Netweather xmas outlook has been updated:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...type=xmas;sess=

I can't speak for other forecasts, but as you'll see by the text in our forecast we're following trends painted by the CFS without getting into specifics as it's clearly too far out for that, and are trying to give a fun outlook for the big day as well as giving some info on what it may be like, no harm in that I would suggest!

i noticed you have added in the republic of ireland ,thanks

SP

[Stuart]

better

Snow Forecast Issued: 2008-11-12 20:06:00

Next update: 2008-11-17 20:00:00

Regions Affected

The UK

Synopsis

The Christmas period is expected to be a fairly cool and wet one. Atlantic LOW pressure systems are forecast to dominate, bringing northeasterly winds. Therefore, unsettled conditions are currently expected for much of the country on Christmas Day, with periods of rain at times. The driest conditions are currently expected to be in the north and west, with a higher chance of rain in the south. Showers, wintry on hills, are possible in eastern Scotland and northeast England. It could be very cold in Scotland, and temperatures are forecast to range from 2-6C in the North, and 6-10C in the South. In general, a cool and wet Christmas is expected, with snow possible on hills in the north and northeast

http://ukasf.weather2day.com/index.php?nam...st-wc&id=20

and not a bad forecast paul

Edited November 12, 2008 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Christmas weather forecast 2008

Forecast headline

Our eleventh forecast suggests the same chance of a white Christmas as our previous update. Generally we think the chance of snow this year is higher than usual, but it's worth remembering that in weather forecasting terms it is still an eternity until Xmas. Things should begin to look a little clearer by mid-December and we'll be hoping for some consistency from that point inward

So to summarise, our view at the moment is there is a significant chance of the UK being covered by a very cold and unstable polar airflow bringing the possibility of snow showers to parts of the north and possibly even southern areas. This type of set-up is more likely to bring snow to coastal districts and the north. For example, the North Yorkshire Moors and much of Scotland would tend to be favoured.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 50% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 42% chance of a white Christmas

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforeca...20forecast.aspx

Edited November 17, 2008 by Stuart

[Stuart]

hmm

Snow Forecast Issued: 2008-11-17 20:15:00

Next update: 2008-11-20 19:00:00

Regions Affected

The UK

Synopsis

This forecasts suggests a slightly milder Christmas week compared to the last forecast issued. However, the Christmas period remains to be a fairly cool and wet one. Atlantic LOW pressure systems are forecast to dominate, bringing northwesterly winds. Therefore, unsettled conditions are currently expected for much of the country on Christmas Day, with spells of rain or showers at times. Snow is likely to be confined to the mountains of Scotland. Temperatures are forecast to range from 5-8C in the North, and 7-10C in the South. In general, a cool and wet Christmas is expected, with snow confined to Scottish mountains.

http://ukasf.weather2day.com/index.php?nam...st-wc&id=22

Edited November 17, 2008 by Stuart

[Paul]

Xmas forecast has been updated:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...type=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

Snow Forecast Issued: 2008-11-20 21:52:00

Next update: 2008-11-22 23:00:00

Regions Affected

The UK

Synopsis

This forecast sees a significant upgrade in the chances of a White Christmas across the country. The Christmas period is expected to be a fairly cold and wet one. Atlantic LOW pressure systems are forecast to dominate, bringing northwesterly winds. Therefore, unsettled conditions are currently expected for much of the country on Christmas Day, with spells of rain or showers at times. Snow is possible in northern and western areas exposed to the northwesterly winds, with a higher chance over the mountains of Scotland. Temperatures are forecast to range from 2-5C in the North, and 4-7C in the South. In general, a cold and wet Christmas is expected, with snow possible in many northern and western locations.

http://ukasf.weather2day.com/index.php?nam...st-wc&id=23

[stewfox]

http://ukasf.weather2day.com/index.php?nam...st-wc&id=23

Out of interest and to be corrected but

How do you get a 100% chance it will snow ? surely it has to be snowing to get that ?

Re Probabilities, are these just not educated guestimates ?

ie there isnt a 25% chance it will snow in a given area as we havent a clue what they weather patterns will look like, its just a educated guess

Doesnt probability come into play a week before ??

Is there any difference in saying I guess it may rain or its 60% probable it may rain ?

[Costa Del Fal]

These are really annoying questions, its just a rough estimate. Everyone seems to forget the more fun side to these forecasts for now.

Thanks again stuart.

[Nick L]

To be honest I do see where stewfox is coming from. He isn't having a go at Stuart or the idea of the Xmas forecasts.

I agree with the question why is there a 100% snow option on the map, surely it is impossible to 100% predict any form of weather, as there is always the outside chance of something else happening. I will soon start taking note of the Christmas forecasts though.

[Costa Del Fal]

What happens im sure is its not based on what we think, especially at this stage but what the charts suggest, high risks are only issued when the conditions look really right for snow e.g temperatures down to 0c with precipitation showing and a wind from the north etc.

[maidstone weather]

To be honest I do see where stewfox is coming from. He isn't having a go at Stuart or the idea of the Xmas forecasts.

I agree with the question why is there a 100% snow option on the map, surely it is impossible to 100% predict any form of weather, as there is always the outside chance of something else happening. I will soon start taking note of the Christmas forecasts though.

i would imagine 100% would be used nearer the time if the conditions were favourable, similar to today's pattern i would guess

Glad to see the forecasts heading in the right direction though, looking good.

[Stuart]

Snow Forecast Issued: 2008-11-26 21:28:00

Next update: 2008-11-28 23:00:00

Regions Affected

The UK

Synopsis

The Christmas period is expected to be fairly cool and mainly settled. HIGH pressure is forecast to the south of the country, bringing northwesterly winds. Therefore, mainly dry conditions are currently expected for much of the country on Christmas Day, with most showers in the north and northwest. The driest weather will be in the south and east, with some lengthy sunny spells. Snow is possible on Scottish mountains, and unlikely elsewhere. Temperatures are forecast to range from 4-8C in the North, and 6-10C in the South. In general, a cool but quiet Christmas is expected, with snow restricted to Scottish mountains.

http://ukasf.weather2day.com/index.php?nam...st-wc&id=25

Edited November 26, 2008 by Stuart

[Nick L]

Now approaching the time where Xmas forecasts have a hint of scientific backing! But expect to see that forecast to keep flip flopping for another couple of weeks.

[Costa Del Fal]

Now approaching the time where Xmas forecasts have a hint of scientific backing! But expect to see that forecast to keep flip flopping for another couple of weeks.

For a few runs now the trend has been for High Pressure to be near the UK.

[Paul]

The NW Xmas forecast has been updated :lol:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...type=xmas;sess=