February CET

[Snowyowl9]

Anyone got any stats on the coldest 1st week to 10 days to february since when,I havn`t looked myself,been a busy 10 days in the cold snowy weather and it ain`t over just yet.

[Albion Snowman]

Then you want the gardening forum, this is a cold lovers' forum, no doubt about it. Snow, even better.

I'm surprised I'm about the only one here who emigrated to Canada, it's the easiest cure for this unfulfilled desire, move to Barrie, Ontario, and you'll see all the cold and snow you could ever imagine in one winter, then get the hell out of there.

LOL, what a fantastic response! A lot of us on here strive to be waist deep in snow and nothing will ever change that.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley is on 1.0C today (Feb 1 -11).

Edited February 12, 2009 by Kentish Man

[SNOWPLOUGH]

Mean temp for feb at my weather station (1-10) : 0.7c!(-4.3c below the 1960-1990 average)

Mean max : 2.47c

Mean min : -1.0c

Days with lying snow : 7

SP

[The PIT]

Well CET should start to take a battering by the end of the weekend as milder air moves in. Could well another of those split months very cold start mild end. At the present time GFS isn't showing that but mild flow may stick around longer than thought.

[Richard Lake]

I am a fan of the 16-day outlook and I can't see any 'worryingly' Mild temperatures at all throughout the run. Sure its slightly warmer - but I don't call 7c 'Mild'. Will this unexpected snow cover across Eastern parts of the UK play any part in slowing the warmer air moving in?

[The PIT]

I am a fan of the 16-day outlook and I can't see any 'worryingly' Mild temperatures at all throughout the run. Sure its slightly warmer - but I don't call 7c 'Mild'. Will this unexpected snow cover across Eastern parts of the UK play any part in slowing the warmer air moving in?

Already moving mate. Tonights forecast a mild night in the south west. Temps rising steadily here as well at the moment up 1.4C since 17:30. Whether it stay like that is another matter as freezing is predicted later on.

[The PIT]

Make that 2.2C since 17:30.

[reef]

With the Hadley CET being on 1.0C today, we now only require 4.3C for the remaining 17 days to give a CET of 3.0C.

Could it be that we might miss out on a sub-3C month yet again? Next weeks double digit maxima and milder nights are going to absolutely hammer the average. Just to give an idea, at this stage in the month just 3 days with a mean of 8C would take the average from 1.0C (at present) to 2.5C.

If we do miss out this year, on what is arguably the best chance in the whole 12 years since we last recorded a sub-3C month, then perhaps it will be time to question in the current climate if it is indeed possible. I choose my words wisely there because no one can see into the future and to say 3C is impossible forever more would be silly.

Hopefully we'll get a late month cold snap to keep us under. Stranger things have happened.

[Snowly does it]

With the Hadley CET being on 1.0C today, we now only require 4.3C for the remaining 17 days to give a CET of 3.0C.

Could it be that we might miss out on a sub-3C month yet again? Next weeks double digit maxima and milder nights are going to absolutely hammer the average. Just to give an idea, at this stage in the month just 3 days with a mean of 8C would take the average from 1.0C (at present) to 2.5C.

To be fair though, there is no 3 day spell of 8 degree average showing in any reliable timeframe or indeed at distance at the moment.

Sub 3 is possible - it does rely on any milder spell being relatively short (3 or 4 days only) and a return to average (4) or below for the rest of the month - which is interestingly what is showing at the moment.

My landing zone has shifted a little to 2.8 to 3.3

January hasn't been finalised yet Reef, maybe it will be adjusted under 3 and the question becomes moot! After all, the England and Wales figure was 2.8 which is the first sub 3 since 97 on that measure.

[damianslaw]

Could February be following the same suit as Dec and Jan - I think it is, a cold first third follwed by a milder middle and colder late third. Strange occurance this year how the beginning and end of each winter month have been cold with milder middle portions, usually it is the other way around. I still think we are course for a sub 3 degree month, yes all dependent on how long the milder spell lasts, but going of the synoptics I think we will end the month with a sharp cold spell which will help dent the CET back down below 3 mark.

[Albion Snowman]

Whatever happens, i just hope we get these 3 months of winter ALL below the average! We are 66% of the way there!

[reef]

To be fair though, there is no 3 day spell of 8 degree average showing in any reliable timeframe or indeed at distance at the moment.

Sub 3 is possible - it does rely on any milder spell being relatively short (3 or 4 days only) and a return to average (4) or below for the rest of the month - which is interestingly what is showing at the moment.

My landing zone has shifted a little to 2.8 to 3.3

January hasn't been finalised yet Reef, maybe it will be adjusted under 3 and the question becomes moot! After all, the England and Wales figure was 2.8 which is the first sub 3 since 97 on that measure.

My line of 3 days at 8C was just an example of how a short mild spell could affect things. Not a reflection on what will actually happen.

However it cant be ruled out yet, GFS almost always underpredicts the temperatures in the sort of setup we're seeing. Monday to Wednesday could well be in the 7-8C range by which time we'll be looking at the remaining days to come in below average to maintain the chance of sub-3C.

It would have to be a large downward correction for January to be sub-3C. Theres a small chance I suppose, but I suspect 3.1C or 3.2C will be the more likely landing point.

Edited February 12, 2009 by reef

[Weather-history]

However it cant be ruled out yet, GFS almost always underpredicts the temperatures in the sort of setup we're seeing. Monday to Wednesday could well be in the 7-8C range by which time we'll be looking at the remaining days to come in below average to maintain the chance of sub-3C.

If anything GFS looks milder maximum wise than the Met Office predictions for Tuesday but its minima are slightly lower.

Edited February 13, 2009 by Mr_Data

[Kentish Man]

Hadley has updated and the CET remains on 1.0C (Feb 1 -12).

Looks like it will be rather milder from the 15th to 20th. After then some uncertainty kicks in. However we will need a late month cold spell to ensure we remain below 3C.

[Weather-history]

Assuming January is 3.3

29th November - 12th February CET: 2.95

[Weather-history]

Calendar months are no more uncorrelated to the data than any other 31 day period. There is as much likelihood that a given heatwave will coincide within 1 Jul-31 Jul as there is that it will coincide within 9 Jul-Aug 8, 16 Jul-15 Aug or 25 Jul-24 Aug. Of course, there is far less likelihood that a heatwave will coincide within a given 31 day period, but that does not make it any more or less "statistically significant" for doing so. Note that I am using that term in the statistical sense.

You make an interesting point.

Look at winter 1981-82.

Mid December-mid January CET: -0.3

Mid January-mid February CET: 6.0

A notable turnaround that would stick out if it occurred within calendar months but is lost because it spans across months.

Edited February 13, 2009 by Mr_Data

[The PIT]

You make an interesting point.

Look at winter 1981-82.

Mid December-mid January CET: -0.3

Mid January-mid February CET: 6.0

A notable turnaround that would stick out if it occurred within calendar months but is lost because it spans across months.

Yes but you can't move your marker to fit the warm spells in or the cold spells in.

[Nick H]

Yes but you can't move your marker to fit the warm spells in or the cold spells in.

That would be true if the calendar month were correlated with the data. But it isn't. That's the point we're trying to make. The calendar month is a human construction; the weather is a natural phenomenon.

Edited February 13, 2009 by Nick H

[reef]

Hadley at 1.2C to the 13th. Yesterday came in at 2.9C.

4.6C required to reach 3.0C.

6.1C required to reach the 1961-90 average of 3.8C.

6.8C required to reach the 1971-00 average of 4.2C.

[Snowly does it]

Halfway through the month and we stand at 1.3

Some calculations to follow....

OK

To remain below 3 - we need to average less than or equal to 4.5 per day from here

To remain below 3.8 (61-90 average) and hence all 3 winter months below the 61-90 average (first time it has happened since the average cameinto existence) - average of 6.1 per day

To remain below 4 and all 3 winter months come in below 4 (first time since 1978-79) - average of 6.5 per day from here

To remain below 4.2 and all 3 winter months be below the 71-00 average (first time it has happened since the average came into being) - average of 6.9 per day from here

For the coldest winter of the century so far - average of 9.5 per day

For a winter below the 61-90 average - average of 9.3 per day

For a winter below the 71-00 average - average of 11.9 per day (both these assume Jan = 3.3)

We are 3 cumulative degrees cooler than January was by the 14th and there are 3 less days for a warm up - hence the upcoming mild spell needs to do more damage than the week 15-21 Jan to get things on target to dent the chances of a sub-3 month (and that week in Jan had a couple of days in the 7s average)

Hadley is running 0.2 above Manley (which is rounded UP to 1.1 whereas Hadley is rounded DOWN to 1.3)

Last night was 2.5 for minima so today will record about 5 probably (minima and maxima averaged) - the first above average day in February

[The PIT]

Well country file has some very mild air forecast for this week. Double figures by day and very mild at night. So expect some major damage to be done to the CET.

[Stratos Ferric]

Here's my mid-month narrative and update. Those who don't like people expressing opinions might be best served by not bothering to read, those who appreciate the effort that goes in - enjoy, or not.

Headlines: 3C+ still very much in play - I'd say it's about an evens shout at present, and moving towards slight odds-on territory at present. I very much doubt that from here we will breach the low marks of any recent cold winter months: 1.7C (Feb 91) is gone - short of an asteroid strike. 2.3C (Dec '95) is all but gone. The 2.5's (Feb '95, Jan '96) from other cold even larger teapot months are long-ish odds against a breach, but not yet absolutely out of the question.

As somebody nearly said earlier in the month - or at least I think this was the point they were making, it seems that the weather makes a mockery of those who crow too early.

I've got to say guys that this one has got me betwixt and between ....

Firstly, it's "only" the CET; that it might be affected one way or the other by GW seems to me, to be neither here nor there. Surely GW is a measure of the average of everywhere and not some arbitrary region of England? It is conceivable that England might be in a area that might be expected to cool, it might be expected to warm, or, indeed, it might be expected to fluctuate wildly increasing both the floors and ceilings of temperature bounds. Who's to know, really?

Secondly, as some of you may know, I am rather a "believer" in hysteresis (see Leaky Integrator thread) so a cool spell, perhaps lasting for up to another 5 years or so is expected, as an arbitrary lag in heat transport latency runs out after the excessive warming of the 1990's. I must, of course, be up front and honest, in that, as far as I know, hysteresis, whilst a recognised phenomena in climatology, has virtually no support from anybody else as a modelling technique.

As WiB says, and, surely, SF intimates; very interesting times ahead, indeed

A good point well made, and too easily forgotten in the understandable parochial interest that we all take in the CET. It's important NOT to extrapolate from the CET globally. Even in the warmest hemispheric winters there are season long pockets of cold, and within the pattern it becomes ever more likely that for short periods there are more instances of cold, and more intense cold.

Spot on. Far too much arrogance based on very little. I hope these people ARE constantly reminded about their wild and unfounded assumptions, when they are proved to be wholly inaccurate. It is exactly this sort of thing that helps feed the crazed media frenzy that has been going on reference AGW for the past xx amount of years.

That said, the usual suspects will have this winter down as a 'blip' no doubt. There's 'blips' and then there's 08/09 'blips', very different indeed.

Do you know Lancia, I agree with you. Off with their heads I say. Perhaps you'll point me towards who these people are with their "wild and unfounded assumptions".

Edited February 15, 2009 by Stratos Ferric

[Snowly does it]

Headlines: 3C+ still very much in play - I'd say it's about an evens shout at present, and moving towards slight odds-on territory at present. I very much doubt that from here we will breach the low marks of any recent cold winter months: 1.7C (Feb 91) is gone - short of an asteroid strike. 2.3C (Dec '95) is all but gone. The 2.5's (Feb '95, Jan '96) from other cold even larger teapot months are long-ish odds against a breach, but not yet absolutely out of the question.

Yes, I think 3plus is just about odds on from here - 2.8 to 3.3 is my current 'zone' but the pressure on that is upward and a lot depends on minima this week - maxima look se tto return at around 9 each day, a little above possibly so would need to see 3s and 4s for minima to keep 3 'in sight' - if the next 7 days average 6, we will be struggling I think unless we get a cold spell (low 3s and below for a week)

[Yeti]

Stratos, that is an excellent post, extremely informative - and at the end, so true!

It's probably worth mentioning today's maxima, because they were widely progged around the 6-7c mark for this area. It's got to 8.8c here today - the 2nd warmest day of the winter so far. Only Fylingdales and Emley Moor have remained below 7c; both are at considerable altitude, and Dishforth broke double figures. I await minima to show a similar pattern tonight.

You made a comment in the January thread about people ignoring your posts and laughing at them (often without any basis other than being in the anti-AGW camp). Well for all you and I have disagreed, it would be a great shame for posts like the above to disappear, and I hope you don't take your bat home one day!

There are many on here I am sure that still value your contribution despite, as I say, disagreements at times.